Zone Coverage: Central Division Over/Under (2026-27)

Central Division Setup And Stakes

Podcast Collective is back. And uh we're gonna talk about a specific division. We call this our zone coverage, and basically we will be going through the outcomes of each an individual team in the central division, and we will continue this process until we get all of the divisions done. I am your host Vince, and uh we're gonna get to this and also gonna get to some things that also happened. Like we waited all day, October 1st, waiting for the inevitable situation with Jalen Dorn, and it finally came to pass. He did sign his contract. We'll get into it, and also where this actually puts Detroit in the process of winning a very competitive Eastern Conference. We'll also talk about other teams in that division, obviously Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana. Uh, and um we will hope to sort out where these teams are going to be at at the end of the year. So, with all that being said, let me take you a little bit behind the scenes of October 1st when we were looking for this information, shall we? So obviously we get up, have a coffee, October 1st. We know that at some point in the day we're gonna get the qualifying offer, or we're gonna get the some sort of long-term deal with Jalen Dorn and the Detroit Pistons. Boy, did they not disappoint on the drama? You know, people had to miss dinners, people, you know, I'm sure people were in mid-cocktail when their phones started blowing up, and then our guy was signed, sealed, delivered, and uh he is signed for $200 million over five years, and we'll get like I said, we'll get into all of that when we talk about the pistons. So, buckle up. We got a good podcast for you, and let's hit it, shall we?

Jalen Duren Deal Shockwave

What's good everybody, and welcome to Front Cup Front of the Podcast Collective. This is where we talk like friends, we argue like cousins, and we still walk out a little bit smarter than we came in. I am Vince, I am your host, your occasional hoop therapist, your absolute favorite bad influence when it comes to completely reckless NBA overreactions that low-key make perfect sense, and we are here to set the table. You know how we dive into the film, you know we have our own observations, and it just contributes to the grown conversations that we have about the NBA, about the players, about the coaches, about the front office, and how how everybody's actually moving. We're gonna talk about blank checks, the contracts, the rumors in the locker room, and the PR span that goes behind it. We're actually gonna have verified receipts. Now we will bring jokes, we will bring advanced math and exact barbershop ammo that you will need to take back to your group chats and completely nuke the argument. If you're an NBA sicko like myself who wants more than the highlight talk, well, you've come to the right place because we're not we're gonna give you things in context, we're gonna give you the numbers and a point of view that makes sense. So you're in the right spot. So let's go.

How We Pick Overs And Unders

Like I said, we're gonna be talking about the central division today, and we're gonna go through each individual team, we're gonna tell you their uh win-loss projection, and would they go over that and why they will or will not, and kind of give you an overall view of what this team looks like and what they're trying to achieve in this situation. And what we're gonna end up doing is we're gonna go through every team, but we're gonna go obviously in descending order. So we're gonna go from the team that probably has the lowest projections to the highest projections, right? Build the drama, all of that sort of thing. So we will be doing

Bucks After Giannis Leaves

that. So we will start with the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Milwaukee Bucks are coming into this season, obviously, without Giannis and Tacumpo for the first time in a over a decade. He's led that team, he's been a part of great victories, great seasons, and he's the all-time leading scorer. He's probably the best Milwaukee Buck of all time. Some people will still probably say Kareem out do Jabbar, but he played a lot longer than Kareem, so therefore, our guy, Giannis, will be missed in Milwaukee. So, what is the aftermath of Giannis Anthony Kumpo leaving? Well, they damn sure made sure they damn sure made it where they got a lot of conversation back as in players. I don't know about draft picks, but in players, they got a lot back, so we're gonna get to that. I will tell you right now that their win-loss record is at uh bet MGM is at twenty-six and a half. So I will have to say that if I was looking at this team, knowing that last year they went 32 and 50 with a negative 6.3 net rating on offense, um, and they were 27th on defense. The 26 and 56 records seems hard to believe when you th when you know that Giannis missed a lot of games. He only played in 36 games last year. That's for their bad record that they had, but they went 32 and 50. So if you're losing 63% of the minutes of your best player, and then you transfuse this uh team with players like Tyler Hero and Jaime Hawkes Jr. and Khalel Ware and our guy uh Caspis Yakachunis. You know saying so how good is it gonna be? I don't know, but we're gonna work through it, we're gonna talk about it, and we're gonna go from there. First thing that we need to kind of establish is this team is a pokery of players. I honestly do not know, and I you know, I can't wait to di delve into this team early in the season and see who's playing where and how much of their playing. Because you have the old guard from the team, which would be your um Miles Turner's of the world, your AG Greens of the world, and you know, you got those holdovers, the Ryan Rollins of the world, Gary Trent Jr., and then you have this influx of Miami heat, heat culture with Jaime Hawkes Jr. and the rest. So, what is this team gonna look like? Well, the two things that we need to establish here is that they did get a piece back that I'm very interested in, and that's Calair Ware. Caler Ware will provide some rim protection that they will absolutely need. He was a plus 0.8 in the LeBron metrics, which is in the 82nd percentile, and a plus 1.8 in multi-year defense on the LeBron metric, which is in the 92nd percentile. He's on a rookie deal, obviously, and he and Miles Turner should provide the rim protection for the Milwaukee Bucks. Now, I don't know if they'll stagger those two, play them together. Khalil Ware is cultivating a three-point shot. We know Miles Turner can shoot the three-point shot a little bit. He's not prolific. Both of the guys are not prolific, but if you were hoping basic uh betting on upside when it came to one of those two, it would be Khalil Ware. Can he shoot it a little bit better? Can those numbers increase over his time in Milwaukee? Maybe so. Right now, we're looking at both of them being basically a 32 to 33% shooting uh big. So you can't sit there and absolutely bank on it that it's gonna hit, but the proof of them shooting it and the proof of them hitting it at a halfway decent rate for big is there now, so you have something to go off of there. Now their steady influence on this team uh is probably Ryan Rollins. Ryan Rollins grades out at like the 95th percentile uh using the metrics, and Tyler Hero also is at the 92nd percentile on the three-point shooting uh prowess. Now, hopefully Tyler Hero doesn't get into any uh fisticuffs when it comes to his teammates. We all know what happened in summer league with BAM out of bio. We hope that that issue never returns onto itself again. But Tyler Hero is a sharp shooter, and if he can stay healthy, and with the amount of bigs, and also the uh the the steady influence of Ryan Rollins, which is a he's a good little heady player. I like Ryan Rollins a lot, and I hope that with now new head coach Taylor Jenkins, who comes over from the Memphis Grizzlies, who sported a 200 a 250 and 214 record while in Memphis and three playoff trips. So this is a good coach that's coming over who's steadying that ship. Obviously, Doc Rivers lost that team last year and they just went into the toilet. But the covers aren't there, like we talked about. They got Hero now. Hero's defense is not great, right? It's not. But with the two bigs, whether they they um put them out together or they stagger them, you're gonna have pretty good rim protection at all times when you come to the Milwaukee Bucks. Now, also you have a guy like Jaime Hawkins Jr. who can definitely play some isolation defense. Ryan Rollins can play some defense as well, so they do have some guys that you sit there and you go, okay.

Milwaukee Rookies And Development Path

Alright. Now the guys that I'm very, very interested in, and we'll talk about their their draft situation momentarily, but they did pick up Braden Burries and also Nate Amit in this last draft. Now, you would sit there and ask me, hey Vince, why is that important? The reason why that is important is because these are two young guys who have a lot of upside. Braden Burries really showed out at Arizona. He was 16.1 points a game, he was uh 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He shot 49% from the field, he shot 39% from three, and he shot 80% from the free throw line. So he had a true shooting percentage of 62.3%. He also had an assist to turnover ratio that was a positive 1.67. And this is as a two-guard. Okay, he's not really a point, he's more of a combo guard. I think he can get you buckets. He's also stout, he's like 6'4, about 200, 205 pounds. This guy is ready to play NBA basketball right now. My whole thing is that with the guys in front of him, what is his developmental pathway? You'll hear me say that a lot when it comes to uh guys who are obviously in the lottery, especially somebody like Braden Burris. We would like to see his development grow because to tell you the truth, as we start to talk about the Milwaukee Bucks further and further, you're gonna start to see where it might be in their best interest to kind of trade away trade away what they built up in players. And I think that's one of the reasons why they got the players in the first place, is because once we start talking about their draft capital and how those coverts are pretty barren at this point in time, you're gonna see the importance of what Braden Burries is gonna mean to this team, and also if you can swing big, and they did swing big with their second first round pick, which is Nathan Mitt. Now, Nathan Mitt comes out of Tennessee, he had a real up and down year. He started off terrible. This guy was supposed to be like a top five uh draft pick when we started the draft process last year. Um, once one thing that we're gonna let you know here at Frontrunner Podcast Collective, we'll be doing a lot of draft. Uh, shout out to our guys at No Ceilings who really do the heavy lifting, but we do our own work here as well, and we kind of put them together and then come up with a consensus of what we think these prospects are gonna be. Now, I'm gonna tell you right now, when it comes to Nathan Mint, I was not big on this kid at all. Um, I thought he was skinny, which he still is. I thought he was not terribly physical. He kind of floated around the perimeter. I don't like that when you are 6'10, 6'11 dude. I it drives me crazy that you don't take the ball into the trees. Now he is 6'10, he's 211 pounds, so he's quite thin. Now, as the season went on, he shot the ball better. Now, his overall numbers, not great. He did put up 16.7 points a game, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Now he shot the ball terribly, but he shot the ball terribly early as it went on later in the year, he started to shoot the ball a lot better. So the overall numbers are he shot 40% from the field total. He did shoot the three-point shot at a 33% clip, and he shot uh 79% of his free throws. That's all, listen, not great, but when you start to look at the numbers in the second half, that's when you start to see the 48% of his uh field goal percentage, that's when you start to see the 37% of the three-point shot, and that's when you also start to see the 84% of the free throw shooting. Now, again, he's still slight. He's walking into a league where you know Giannis lives in this league, right? And I hate to bring that up from Milwaukee Bucks fans because I'm sure it's still tender at this point, and you're gonna have some lean years, but those are the two kids that you kind of need to lean on. It's like he those two kids, Ryan Rollins and Khalil Ware, if you're gonna hold on to where. We might talk about that a little bit later though. So hold on.

Milwaukee Pick Drought Trade Logic

Now, when it comes to their asset leisure, uh they hold as far as their picks are concerned. You got Tyler Hero and the money, but this is where their picks are. Next year, this this upcoming year, 2027, that pick is owed to New Orleans or Atlanta, depending on who has where it all where it ends up. 2028 ends up in Portland or Washington, and they hold the swap rights. Now, there's a pick that also in 2029 that conveys to Portland as well. Uh now the 2030, you got Portland, Miami swap rights, and then 2031, they own their pick plus Miami's unprotected. So for the next four years, the Milwaukee Bucks do not have picks, they're not in control of any other draft compensation whatsoever. So that brings me back to Tyler Hero. That also brings me back to Miles Turner. So what I am saying is that yes, Tyler Hero is there, he's a hometown hero. Oh, the pun was not is it is a terrible pun. But if you can get Tyler Hero to showcase his skills and hide his defensive kind of negative outcomes, he can put the ball in the basket at a pretty effective level. And if he can show that he can do it for a team that is lottery bound, no doubt, you could probably trade him at the trade deadline to a team who is desperate, and then you can go ahead and get a draft pick back, or maybe two, depending on how over barrel you have this team. With that being said, the the reclamation project that is Miles Turner, who had probably his worst career season last year. Now, I don't blame him totally. You know, Doc Rivers was there, and there was just a lot of upheaval going on, and it just wasn't working. Now they gave him a big contract, and this is where people will go, I don't know, dog. I don't know about that one. Because he owed $26.6 million for the next three seasons. That's a lot of money when it comes to the center position. And Miles Turner is no screen chicken. This dude is now over 30, so we're not paying for uh upside, we're paying for production. And last year, he had his least productive season since his rookie year. He is a good defender, he can get out on the wings on the perimeter, he can also hold it down as far as blocking shots when it comes to um at the rim. But the problem is that he's never being like a super duper scorer or anything like that, and paying somebody like Miles Turner $26.6 million a year is uh I would consider that a bad asset right now. So can you curate can you curate his reclamation project to make him um more viable when it comes to trades? Because right now you'd have to give up stuff to trade Miles Turner. Let's just be honest about what we're looking at. So if he is not a piece that you can kind of discard and get something for, that brings me back to Killel Ware. And it brings me back to Hi Jaime Highcast Jr. Now here's some kids who are still young, like I uh Khalel Ware is not even twenty twenty-four yet, and also Jaime Hotcast Jr. is not I don't even think he's twenty five, twenty-six. So here's some guys who on winning teams can play a role. Now, Khalel Ware has the huge upside, so that's the guy who you think that might can be able to get you a bunch of picks back when it comes to that. Um so if he you can get him to play well and you can showcase him, this is where you can start making inroads on Reclaiming picks back to fill your coffers so you're not absolutely barren when it comes to the next three years because it looks bleak in Milwaukee right now. Now, here's some things that you need to know. The Milwaukee Bucks do not have any incentive to tank because that pick goes somewhere else. If that pick is gone, so you gotta really play hard. The great thing is they have a ton of depth and they have a ton of options when it comes to every basic position when it comes to their team. Now, is it any great piece? No. This is why I think that the development of Braden Berry's and Nate Amit and Khalil Ware are critical to what they're trying to achieve. Because if you can get Khalil Ware to be something that people are very interested in, and who isn't interested in a rim-protecting big that can shoot threes who's hella athletic? Okay? Let's not, you know, I see a lot of lobs to Khalil Ware this year in his future, and then if he can bang out the threes at a decent level, which he was on his way to doing in Miami, I think you might have something, and then you might be able to recoup some of the things that you've lost in your last couple prior trades. Now, you want to ask me where they're gonna end up this year?

Bucks Win Total Final Call

If Vegas is saying that they're gonna end up with 26, you know, they're over-under 26.5, I'm gonna take the over simply because of two things. One, Taylor Jenkins can manufacture an offense, and he has a lot of different type of pieces to be able to do that. You also have the steadying hand of Ryan Rollins and Tyler Hero with a bunch of depth behind them. So if Braden Burries is getting minutes behind Tyler Hero and um maybe taking over the reins for Ryan Rollins and kind of, you know, it's like a rotation of three guards there, I think you will be able to really do something when it comes to that. Now, do I think that the Milwaukee Bucks have a chance of being like 500 or anything like that? No, I do not. If they win 30 games this year, it is an absolute moment in time for the Milwaukee Bucks and the Milwaukee Bucks organization. So don't get too hyped, but they'll play their ass off because, again, they don't have anything to tank for. And I know we're not supposed to use that word anymore. Let's call it strategic uh letting go of the rope at the end of the year and what have you. Let's do it that way, right? So I would think that right now you're gonna get the best version of the Milwaukee Bucks. That's not really a lot of fair shakes, but it is something to look forward to. And really, if you're a Milwaukee Bucks fan, what you're looking for is three things. Again, it's Kaleware and his growth and his development, and is it a piece that is so tantalizing that you gotta keep? Because remember, Khalil Ware is a legit seven-footer. He's also, again, pretty damn athletic. He's gonna block your shots, uh, he's very hyperactive when it comes to defense. He can go out and uh shoe three-point shooters from the corners and things of that nature, and then he can also chase down blocks, which is great. The tantalizing thing when it comes to him is this are you sure that he's part of your future? And what I mean by that, it might be a situation where you have to rip off the band-aid and trade him because he might be able to get you two first-round picks and like two second-round picks, and you might say, Well, that's not a huge haul, it's not the Desmond Bain haul that Memphis got from Orlando, but it is a step in the right direction when your coffers are as empty as the Milwaukee Bucks, but I have them going over 26 and a half, so we are going to move down to Chicago, and Chicago has a lot of interesting things going on.

Bulls Rebuild Pace And Pieces

One, their overunder is 27.5 games, so not a lot to see here, supposedly, but there is a lot going on in Chicago that we need to kind of catch ourselves up with. Do they have talent? They do, and we'll get to it. Uh, last year they went 31 and 51, they had a negative net rating of 5.1. Uh they were through the analytics, they were supposed to be 29 and 53. That's their per their Pythagorean record, but they ended up two games above that, which is great. Uh, they played at the second fastest pace in the league. They were outshot by 3.6 attempts a game. Uh courtesy of NBA.com, and they ranked 19th in three-point efficiency. Now, why is this all important? Two things. They have Norman Powell, who is, I can tell you right now, before he even played a regular season game, Norman Powell is a trade asset, and look for him to be on the move come early February or what have you. So keep that in mind. But Norman Powell's on this team, he's gonna get you bucky while he's here. You got Josh Giddy, you got also uh Nick Clask uh Claxton who comes over from Brooklyn, who's gonna show up your be the your big man as far as that's concerned, and then what makes this team kind of interesting is Caleb Williams, and we'll get to him, but let's talk about what they have on the squad right now. What have we seen from Giddy? Well, he's an elite creator, he grades out at the 99th uh percentile on playmaking uh talent, and he's 99 on the assists uh assist points per 75. Now his offensive LeBron is a plus 1.28, which is at the 90s percentile. So this dude gets buckets, he gets but he gets buckets for other players, he puts Peeko in good positions. Now, a guy that um I have a lot of interest in as a Lakers fan is Jalen Smith. Jalen Smith has had a pretty good kind of renaissance in Chicago, so I like him a lot. I think that's gonna be real uh awesome when it comes to that. I also like that they got Buddy Healed in the Rob Dillingham trade a couple days ago. He shoots 35%, he is a volume three-point shooter. He is his uh career average is 39.5% from three. Can't really be angry at that at all. Now, Tiago Splinter uh Splitter takes over for uh Gilly Donovan who left, Splitter, who went 42 and 40 as the interim coach in Portland last year. I think you got a guy who really understands the game, he can teach it to the young kids. That's what you got here, and that's what you're looking for when it comes to rebuilding what Chicago has been in the past, and you know, it's been a long time since Chicago's been really relevant. Now, you know, you had that that blip when Derek Rose was healthy, and it just disappeared, you know, due to his knee injuries and things of that nature. It was you know, it was a heartbreak. But you can see in Chicago that they're really coming around. Giddy and Buzelis are nice little fun foundational pieces that you have, and I can't wait to continue to see their growth and development with one another and how it all works out with those two. Now, when you talk about those two, they're gonna be a really big team because if you got Nick Claxton at the five, you got Boozelis, and you got Giddy, we haven't even talked about Caleb

Caleb Wilson Hype And Fit

Wilson. Now, Caleb Wilson was the number one, it was the number four overall draft pick in the 2026 draft. Now, he only played 24 games at North Carolina. He put up almost 20 points a game, damn near 9.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists. He shot the ball at a 57.8% clip. He did not shoot the three well at North Carolina, but you know where he shot it well at? Summer League. This dude had a real coming out party. This dude looked like a superstar in Summer League. Now, his interior defense and his rebounding are what got him to the top four situation. But his three-point shooting was a revelation at Summer League, and if that's going to hit, and that's what it's going to be, man, did Chicago end up with an absolute stud. This could really jump start uh just good vibes in Chicago and a upward trajectory that I'm sure the Chicago Bulls fans that uh have been holding on. Just hold on to anything that looks like potential hope. I know it's getting some lean gears for you guys in Chicago. I know. But this guy right here is legit. I think that he is going to be a stud in the NBA. Now, his development is really on him. It's gonna be that three-point shot. Which position is he best suited for? The three of the four. He's very athletic, he's a big kid, but uh right now all we're looking for is him to get out there and play, catch some lobs from Giddy, get real hype with uh Boozelis, you know, and talk a lot of trash and show some swag. We're not expecting him to light the world on fire this year, but I think this kid has a definite shot uh at rookie of the year, the way he played in summer league. Now I know the other kids, and we'll, you know, get to them when their time comes or whatever, because you know, we're gonna break down each division. So we'll get to the AJ DeBancers of the world, we'll get to Derek Peterson and things of that nature, but I think this kid has a legit shot at doing something really special. So we'll see how it all goes. But Caleb Williams is definitely a guy that I'm looking forward to spending a lot of time on NBA League pass watching. And that brings us to the second rookie, which is Dalen Swain out of Texas. He put up 17.3 points a game, 7.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists. He shot the ball very uh fairly well, 54% from the field, 34.4% from three, but what gives you pause and what also gives you hope is that he shot at 81.5% from the free throw line. And I'm gonna tell you right now, that's one of the biggest indicators that this dude has touched and that that three-point shot could go up. Now he's going from the college three-point line to the pro three-point line. He did not show very well in summer league, but also keep in mind, he's a lower first-round draft pick. We're not expecting him to blow up, but he does a he's like a Swiss Army knife. Alright. He can rebound, he can pass a little bit, play some defense, he's long, he's athletic. I like Dalen Swain a lot. Now, it will be up to him on his where he's gonna fit in. But I think that Tiago Splitter has a has a situation where we saw him resurrect Denny Abdia of the Trailblazers, and I think if you think about the way that Denny Abdia plays the game, I think we have a chance of seeing Dalen Swain be sort of like a Denny Obdia light. So a little bit more athletic, but that's who I'm thinking of. Now, what holds him back from being like pure Denny Abdia is the 2.7 turnovers a game. That is a red flag. So I'll say this about Cleveland. You got Buzelis, you got Nick Claxton, you know, you got uh a strong foundation of guys to build on with now you adding Caleb Williams to the mix, or Caleb Wilson to the mix, Caleb Williams talking about the Chicago Bears quarterback, man. This is crazy. Anyways, you have some talent, you have some young talent that you can go ahead and really mold, and again, you got the right coach for it. It's all gonna be you're in a really hard-hitting division, you're in a division that's gonna be hyper competitive because it's gonna be you really are gonna be the anchor with Milwaukee of that division. The other three teams that are Indiana, Cleveland, and Detroit are gonna be the hammer to your nail. So you're gonna have to get victories off like Brooklyn, you're gonna have to get victories off of the you know, near the well of the other people in the Eastern Conference as well. Because there is the talent at the top is just ridiculous right now. And as we go through division by division, you'll start to see that. Because we're about to get into the high-rent destroy in this division after we talk about the Chicago Bulls. So, what to watch for in Chicago is this development, development, development. See whether Splitter starts Smith over Claxton or Claxton starts. Does Jalen Smith start at all? Is Caleb Wilson earmarked for a position? I would think so. I think if you have that high of a draft pick, you let that kid go, you let him learn through his mistakes, and you allow that developmental pathway, his developmental pathway to be as wide berth as possible. I think also we are looking for another jump up for uh Matos Guzelis. And they are going to be playing Washington in the opener first month of the season. They that means AJ Devanster comes to town. That means that Caleb Wilson will be hyped and it will be awesome. Now, we did talk about Norman Powell.

Norman Powell Trade Watch

Norman Powell will get you buckets through fake through like the early through January and maybe like the very early part of February. But do not go out and buy a Norman Powell jersey because I'm gonna tell you right now, unless you bought it on an MX card, you need to have that jersey insurance replacement, because he will be a trade uh candidate for sure come February. Now, where do we think that Chicago will be at? 27 and a half games is not a lot of games. They I think that Tiago Splitter can get them to play a little bit better than that. Personally, I think 30 games aren't out of the question when it comes to the Chicago Bulls. I think they're a team that's gonna play hard. And I think if you come in to Chicago and you've had like a long road trip or whatever the case may be, you can get got in Chicago, especially with the talent they have that they have put together so far. It's just young and it needs to be nurtured and it needs to be kind of manicured. But I like what Chicago's doing. It took them a while to go ahead and rip the band-aid off and go ahead and get to this point, but I like the little foundation that they have. Um, obviously, Giddy has to shoot the three at a at a decent level. Buzelis still has to work on his three ball, and if again, if Caleb Will Wilson's three is legitimate, look out. Maybe not this year, but put a couple more drafts together like this, and we're gonna be talking about something pretty damn special in Chicago. Now I'm not gonna say championship, but I'm gonna say, hey, you know, you wanna get back to that playoffs playing in you know in the spring, playing legitimate, meaningful games. You got a really nice foundation to do that off of.

Pacers Reload With Haliburton Back

Speaking of nice foundation, let's get to the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers To me, remember this team was uh one game away in the twenty twenty five NBA finals, and then Tyrese Halliburton absolutely ripped up his Achilles. Now, when we were le when we last saw them, it was not great. And of course, if you take Tyrese Halliburton off your squad, it's probably not gonna be great. So they went 19-63 and did do not have any draft conversation to speak of because they made a trade and we'll talk about who they picked up in a second, which is uh uh Evita Zubots from the Clippers, and that number five overall pick, Keaton Waggler, went to the Los Angeles Clippers. So, what you say, what do they have? Well, they got Tyrese Halliburton, and the band is back together, damn it. That's what they have. Okay, they have a lot of good stuff that we don't need to worry about. Tyrese Halliburton is back, that means that Nimhar goes to his regular position. That means that we don't need to see an overabundance of shooting from um our guy Aaron Neismith. He can go back to his role, and now you have a legit seven-footer who's a really good rebounder. You're gonna have to make some augmentations to the offense, which listen, Rick Carlisle is a genius when it comes to this. You also got Pascal Siakum, so, and you got uh OB Toppin off the bench and then a couple other guys. So, Indiana's back. Now, they're in the they're in the central and they're in the east, which is one of the most competitive.

East Contenders And Pacers Window

Um this is gonna be one of the most competitive Eastern conferences that we uh uh battles that we've ever seen. Because there's a lot of good teams out there. Yes, the bad is really bad, but the good is really freaking good. Remember, the Knicks are the defending champions. Boston, yes, might have lost Jalen Brown, but that's a good team. It's still a good team over there. Philadelphia is locked and loaded. And then we talk about the teams in. We talked about we're gonna be talking about the teams in Central. Remember, in the in the South, we got Orlando, they got a lot to prove. Miami has Giannis. Charlotte's on the rise. I think they'll dip back a little bit when it comes to that. Atlanta is looking to do big things this year as well. So Indiana is in a real dog fight for Eastern Conference supremacy. But if there's any team that I would go ahead and put some faith in, it would be the Pacers. Because one thing, I think that Tyrese Halliburton was on the on the verge of being such an elite player. Remember, this kid was basically he controlled their offense. You know, you had guys like and you still have guys like Siakam who are, you know, creating 25.6 points a game per seventy-five. You got Obi Toppin who shoots 63.7% of true shooting, which is at the eighty 85th percentile. So you got a lot to kind of go off of when it comes to the Indiana Pacers. Their starting five is legit. And now you got a visa zubots. And here's a guy who is gonna set rugged screens, and he is going to roll to the basket. He's also a really good passer in the short roll. I think that that's a new wrinkle to the offense that you did not have with uh Miles Turner. Actually, I thought Miles Turner Turner was a shaky uh passer to begin with. I think you upgrade there. Um the rebounding is definitely gonna upgrade with uh Evisa Zubots for sure, and I think it gives Halliburton another guy to play off of, but the one thing that Halliburton will absolutely appreciate with Zubots is that he sits bone crushing picks. Okay, that pick and roll game is about to get real dangerous because when Zubot steps out to the perimeter, yeah, he's not gonna shoot it, but you gotta get around him, and that's a big boy. That's a seven-footer who's like 265-270 pounds, and he leans into all of it. Does he like physicality? Very much so. Does he want to allow his guards and his slashing wings to be set free from the uh defender who is guarding him? 100%, and he will do everything in his power to do so, and you are going to feel it. You're gonna need a bunch of ice packs after the game when it comes to a visa zoobots in a pacers uniform. I think Indiana Pacers fans are gonna love him. I really do. So, yeah, does Zubot's transition um to the Pacers mean a lot? Yes, one hundred percent. And I think that you will see him really, in a sense, be that protector for Tyrese Halliburton. Tyrese is going to be a ball-dominant dude, he's gonna have the ball in his hand a lot, his uh usage was like at 35% when he was healthy. I don't see that changing. So some of the schematics with him I don't see changing. I look at this team and go, you know, they're gonna make this run. Cause see Siakam is starting to get up their age, and his price tag is now at 48.9 million, which hey, if you're winning or you get into the NBA finals, this is great. But when you're 32 years of age, you start to think about what that cliff is gonna look like, and you start making business decisions, and especially if you're the Indiana Pacers, this is something that you do. You gotta you gotta divest at the right time. You gotta go in at the right time, and you gotta divest at the right time. And I think that if for some reason the Pacers don't reach the mountaintop this year, I think that there'll be real hard discussions, sober discussions about Pascal Siakum when it comes to whether they're gonna trade him or not and kind of retool the team on the fly. So if the Pacers are gonna do something, they're gonna do it this year. If for some reason they get off to some kind of slow start or whatever the case may be, they might not be able to get the absolute return they want for Pascal Siakam at the trade deadline. They might have to wait till the end of the year in the offseason and you know have uh Pascal Siakam on the trade block, but I think this is a really good team. I think that Zoo, I think that Obi Topkin off the bench is dynamic. He can get you anywhere between 13 to 17 points off the bench. Um, you know, TJ McConnell is gonna be very TJ McConnell when it comes to just being a complete pest on the court and getting good shots for your players. Now it will be the shepherds of the world, they're gonna have to step up. Um that bench has not really produced anything other than Obi Talkman. So I will we'll be very interested to see what happens with the the shepherds of the world and what have you. So um stay tuned for that. We will see if they are able to do anything when it comes to that, but make no bones about it.

Pacers Over Call And Why

This is a playoff team. I don't think this is a play-in team, this is a playoff team, and I think we have a lot of uh time and and and I think we can confidently say that this team is definitely going to uh win more than 44 and a half games. You know what I'm saying? I mean, if that's the if that's the watermark that we're looking at, 44 and a half is easy. That's easy money. Go ahead and take the over on that. Now, is Halliburth is Halligurton gonna be rusty? I don't think so. I do not think so. I think they he I think they're because how competitive the East is, I'm not gonna sit here sit here and say they're gonna win 55 games or anything. But could they win 50? Could they win 51? Yeah. I think the Pacers can go 51 and 31 in a competitive East. I think that's where you're gonna end up being, somewhere like that. But the you don't have to worry about the 19-63 that you were last year unless something catastrophic happens. So that's my thoughts on the Indiana Pacers. Now that we talked about the Pacers and their 44 and a half wins, let's talk about a team. Now that we've talked about the Pacers, let's talk about some of their teams that they have to worry about.

Cavs Go All In With Harden

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a assessment kind of standby situation. What I mean by that is that they're all in this year again. They picked up James Harden, they went 21 and 9 over that time. They had an offensive rating of 126.7. Harden and Mitchell during the regular season is a absolute dynamo of a backcourt. Harden's talents are undeniable undeniable. He is one of the best um step back uh three shooting guys in the league. He can get to the basket when he wants. He can manipulate a defense at any point in time. I'll get to the other stuff in a second, but let's give him his flowers. James Harden is is a is a real dude, and he's been a real dude for a very, very long time in this league. That's why he continues to get paid. Is he the best defense defensive player in the world? No, he's not. But can he play adequate defense? Yeah, he sure can. Donovan Mitchell is an absolute dynamo, offensive dynamo. He is explosive, he can he can explode for 55 points any given night. He's and the funny part about Donovan Mitchell is that I know they lift him at like what six foot four or whatever the case may be. Donovan Mitchell's like 6'2, he just got long ass arms, and he's just super duper fucking athletic, and he is an absolute killer when it comes to regular season getting buckets. Now, this team is stacked. The Cavaliers, Kenny Atkinson has a stacked team. Evan Mowgli is a former defensive player of the year, he provides the ramp protection that you would want. Uh, you also got Jared Allen, who is also one of the best defensive players in the league. And now you have Peyton Watson, who you got in a signing trade. And let me tell you something. Peyton Watson, I wanted him to be a Lakers so bag, but I will say this. It's it is a it's not a big sample size, but you're not asking Peyton Watson to carry the team. What you're asking him to do is the thing that he should be able to wake up, fall out of bed doing, being an absolute menace on the defensive end, providing pressure on ball, and being a menace in the passing lanes. Get out and run, get your points that way, and when we finally go ahead and get into that half court offense, we need you to stand in the corner and shoot some threes. And if he can do that with the amount of talent they have on this team, I think that Peyton Watson's ability and what he showed in that month where Jokic wasn't there, and he put up career numbers. I think that Cleveland really has something. Honestly. Now again, his defensive his defensive uh prowess is unmatched. This dude is a 97 97th percentile isolate isolation defender. His catch and shoot efficiency is 95th percentile, and then you have dudes like off the bench, you have dudes like uh Dean Wade, Max Struce, uh Schroeder, you know what I'm saying? You got enough dudes. Oh, we haven't even talked about Jalen uh Tyson. So the covers aren't bare in Cleveland. Yes, you will have to stagger the bigs to make sure you got enough shooting on the court, but I think with now Peyton Watson there, you got another kind of athletic person who is a legitimate six foot eight, who can provide that where he can slide down to that four position very easily, and then you could bring in another high-level defender who can shoot the three and help out with the corner threes, and you still got Donovan Mitchell and you got James Harden to do the real offensive heavy lifting that they're able to do.

Playoff Problems And Asset Pressure

My whole thing with the Cleveland Cavaliers is the same exact thing that it's been the last two or three years. Either you're gonna get more aggression from Evan Mowgli or some more nasty from Jared Allen, or you're gonna go home again, and you're never getting to the finals. And that's all there is to it. Because here's the thing as much as I love James Harden as far as what he's able to do, it doesn't work in the playoffs. We've we've asked and we've tried, but it doesn't work, and James Harden uh ghosting you like after a date or whatever the case may be, is definitely gonna happen in the playoffs. You're gonna sit there and look around and go, where is James Harden at? And he is gonna be nowhere to be found. All that production you saw in the regular season is gonna dry up, and it's just gonna be gone. Now, Donovan Mitchell still puts up points in the playoffs. The only thing with Donovan Mitchell is that he's been in Utah and he's been in Cleveland, and we still have not seen an NBA finals appearance for this guy. And the one thing that we said when he was with Darius Garland is that backcourt too small, and now we say to you again, not that it's too small, James Harden is not a really good defensive player. Donovan Mitchell is athletic enough to be a good defensive player, but if you put him in pick and roll action, and now you gotta guard LeBron, or you gotta guard OG Anobi, or you gotta guard Jason Tatum, or you gotta guard Jalen Brown, it's a difficult ask of somebody who is 6'2, who is also carrying such an offensive burden for you. This is why we've been asking for Evan Mowgli to step up and just be the guy who we thought you were going to be. I thought this was the second coming of Chris Bosch, honestly, and we have not gotten there. We've seen glimpses of it, we've seen it, it's not like it's oh, it's not there at all. No, no, no, no, it's there. We just never seen it completely realized yet. And this is the year because if for some reason, with all this talent that has been put together by Kobe Altman, and Kobe Altman has done a fantastic job with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Make no mistake about that. But this is the year where they have to put it all together. You can't cry about all this, that, the other. Kenny Atkinson can't come out here talking about well, our our uh evaluated field goal percentage will lead us to believe that we would have won that series nine out of ten times. Bro, nobody wants to hear that. Not one person wants to hear that. You need to go out and win. You need to grab this season by the throat and win. You have the talent, you have now a guy who can definitely defend the wing at a high level, so you should be able to counteract the Jalen Browns and the Jason Tatums of the world with Peyton Watson. Because here's the other thing. 2027, 2029 first are gone. 2028 first round pick is in a swap triangle. The 2031 pick went to Denver in the Peyton Watson deal. The 2033 pick is frozen because of your cap situation. Y'all see what I'm getting at, right? In Cleveland. I know y'all don't want to hear it. I know y'all don't want to hear it. But I'm gonna tell you right now, if for some reason Cleveland does not get it done, expect change. Now, will it be Donovan Mitchell?

No.

Not saying that. But Evan Mowgli gonna have to go. Or Jared Allen gonna have to go. You can't pay Jared Allen $30 million and be like, oh, he's not that type of big. He's not a big where you sit there and I he can get me offense on his own. He is not that dude. He is reliant on James Harden feeding him blocks and getting put back, you know, off the rebounds, and running, you know, being athletic and running the court and beating his the his uh his center matchup up the court and then hitting him with a lead ahead pass and him scoring. But if you're asking him to like end like half court offense, go on the block and then get me like a turnaround little baby hook or whatever the case may be, or turnaround 12-footer, that is not Jared Allen's game. So, this is the year. Evan Mowgli finds the aggression that he's so been searching for. Jared Allen needs to step up and be a little more aggressive on these screens, and also make sure when you we get to the postseason, you out here putting up a wall, and it's not just a throw. Peyton Watson needs to go ahead and hold it down and and be able to neutralize some of these wings that he's gonna be asked to defend. And you know, Donovan Mitchell is gonna have to carry this team a little bit and hope that when James Harden does go MIA, it's on the it's on a night where Donovan Mitchell is on a heater. Do I think Cleveland is going to contend in the East? Yes, I do. Do I think that Cleveland has a chance to win more than 47 and a half games? They should. Could the pressure finally have caught up to him though? Because we know that this is the year where you you know this is the proven year. Lot of weird things happen when you know that the ultimatum is like, hey, if you don't get it together this year, we're gonna have to make a lot of changes. Cause then people start playing for themselves. You start to see independent contractors out there. Now, I think Kenny Atkinson can hold it together. I think he's the type of dude that can handle that situation. I think that uh the kid they got from um was it Arkansas, whatever the case may be, Malik Anderson, I think he's going to be very good. I think he might be a you know kind of energizer bunny off the bench. Do I think that Cleveland should win about 50 games? Yeah, I think this the whole Eastern Conference at the top, that 50 to whoever ends up winning 55 games, probably gonna win the East. Because there's too many good teams at the top. Now, this is provided no injuries or whatever. We have some sort of long-gated injury by one of these top teams, then I can see them definitely falling by the wayside and whatever. But if we are turning off the injury situation on 2K, and we're saying that Cleveland is going to be with their dudes mostly, their over, under is 47 and a half, they should go over. The problem is that again, this is a season where it's a make or break. You start to see people going into business for themselves. And hey, James Harden isn't it is not above it. He's not above it at all. So with that being said, this is a big crew of year for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Mobley Ultimatum For Cleveland Ceiling

I think they're immensely talented, but it all falls on not Donovan Mitchell, not James Harden. I am going to tell you exactly who is going to fall on. Evan Mobley needs to be the guy who we thought he was going to be. He needs to go ahead and average like 19 to 21 points a game. He needs to go ahead and get his get his shit together with his rebounds. He needs to be more assertive on the offensive end and be that third guy that the Cleveland Cavaliers have been looking for, and not just this mismatch, pokery. Situation that they've been going through for like the last three years. Evan Mobley needs to be the dude. Really, to tell you the truth, he really needs to be the number two, and James Harden moves to the number three. But shit, I know I'm probably asking a lot. Evan Mobley needs to step up. We need to see the guy that they drafted. Um early lottery. What six years ago, six, seven years ago? We've been waiting, and it needs to happen. And that leads us to a guy and to another big that had a lot of questions to answer.

Pistons Reality Check After 60 Wins

And his situation just got real interesting. And that leads us to the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit Pistons won 60 games last year. They were the number one seed. Um the number two seed. They took and lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in seven games in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The market wants you to think that they will have a 10 and a half win drop in wins. Now, Kay Cunningham is paid. And then under the wire, they paid their 22-year-old center $200 million for five years. And you say, Vince, this is a good thing. And I agree with you. Here's my question. I'm about to go through it here in Los Angeles. Because if you don't think Austin Reeves is under the microscope with his contract that he just got, you got another thing coming. The reality is, is with that money comes great responsibility. And Jalen Duran can tell me all the things, and he can be salty about how negotiations went and whatever. The reason why Trajan Langdon had a pause when it came to giving Jalen Duran $200 million, which is an AAV of $40 million a year, is because does he get his own offense? Is he a absolute shutdown defender? They were 60 and 22 last year. Cade Cunningham missed 18 games and they still won 60. Cade's shot quality is all all be it because he is the guy. He has to take some questionable shots. Because if you look behind him, if you look behind Kate, who is it? One of the best athletes I've seen on the court. He's like a 99%ile athlete. Can't shoot a lick. Jalen Doran is a 20 and 10 type of dude. Is he the best defensive player in the whole world? No. And how is he getting those 20 points a game? Who's spoon feeding him, you know, most of those points? Oh, that'll be Cade Cunningham. Kate Cunningham is a straw that stirs the drink, no doubt. But also, he's the he is the offensive engine for a lot of people on that team.

Detroit Spacing And Second Scorer Search

And then you got John Collins, right? Okay, here's the thing. Duncan Robinson is there to give you space. Okay, there's your th your movement three-point shooter. You also picked up Isaiah Joe, another terrific movement shooter. I don't know what he's gonna do on the defensive end for you, but I do know this. He's gonna get you some buckets. They got John Collins. Now, John Collins has shot the ball uh a lot better when it comes to three-point shooting and whatever the case may be lately. That thumb that finger still looks ugly as hell, but he finally started to shoot the three a little bit better. But he's not you can't depend on John Collins. You can't depend on remember they were depending on Tobias Harris last year, and they still won 60 games. That is the greatness of Kay Cunningham. That is the greatness of also their coach JB Bakerstaff saying, hey, we are gonna play all out, tough ass deep tough ass minded defense, and we're gonna get this done. Now, here's the thing. And we're gonna say the quiet part out loud. Everybody plays hard in the playoffs. Yeah, you can win a lot of games in a regular season because you're out efforting people, but when it comes to the crucible of the playoffs, you're not gonna be able to do that. A Sar Thompson's defensive LeBron is 2.93. That's a hundred percentile. His steals are 2.56 in 70 in 75 possessions. One of the toughest assignments in the league. That's all great. You still can't hit a jump shot, my brother. Are we expecting John Collins to become some kind of like volume three-point shooter? Or is it does it all fall on Duncan Robertson and also Isaiah Joe? Now those guys are up to the task, no doubt, when it comes to shooting threes and getting those numbers out there. And maybe they will be the the the guys you need to go ahead and provide the the space the space that Cuttingham needs to operate in in a driving situation and to unlock what Jalen Durant is. But I still think you need more. I still think you need more. Isaiah Stewart gone, Tobias Harris gone. You know what I'm saying? So again, when you got Giannis in Miami, you got Jalen Brown and LeBron in Philly, you got Kawhi Leonard in Toronto, and Tyrese Halliburton is back. Oh, by the way, Cleveland is still here. Again, JB Bakerstaff has a lot of um he has a lot to work to do because they need to find a second scorer for Cake Cunningham. And they need to find them pretty quickly. They either need to be able to manifest one within the house, or they need to go out and get one. Cause again, paying Jalen Doran that kind of money signifies that you are like a dude that should should be the second leading score of the team or the backbone of the defense. You are second behind Cade's fifty-three point eight million, my guy. So it's either first team all defensive team at the very least second. You're starting to rebound the ball at such a prolific level, like you're averaging 13.5 rebounds a game, or you're gonna have to figure out some sort of like offensive post move and counters to that post move to unlock K Cunningham so he's not getting double teamed and glitched every single time in the playoffs. Now, do I think that Detroit will be good this year? Yeah, I do. I do. I am just really not sold on their ceiling. And I know that's real hard for Detroit Piston fans to hear when you're sitting there and saying, hey, we won 60 games last year. Who the hell are you to tell us that we are going to because when you say something like this, what pissing fans hear is that they suck. They don't suck. And again, if you play hard, you can win a lot of games. But when it comes to that playoffs, that's a different story. Because everybody's playing hard in the playoffs. Everybody is doing that. So if you're cool with getting there and like you're a first round, second round exit every single year, then good on you. I don't think Cade is is built that way. Now, what is cool about the Detroit Pistons? They own their first from 2027 to 2033. So if they want to go out and make a trade, they can. Duncan Robinson is 16 million, and Isaiah Joe is 11.3 million. So if you wanted to combine some salaries depending on what you were looking for, you have enough to go out and get what you need to get. But don't sit here and try to swoon fade me this this line about oh Jalen Duran is now the second best player on the team. Okay, yeah, he's second best player, but y'all know the space between him and Cake Cunningham and the offensive weaponry and wizardry that is Cake Cunningham is a vast difference to what Jalen Duran provides to this team. And yes, it was cool when you were on your rookie deal and you were averaging 19.1 points a game and like 10.8 rebounds and blocking a couple shots and whatever the case may be. That was all well and good. Now you make 40 million dollars a year.

Duren Max Expectations And Win Total

So Vegas has them as like a 49-win team. This might be the one team that I say under. Not significantly under. I think, like I said, a lot of teams are gonna be in that, like, it's gonna be a cluster of teams. It's gonna be like the West last year and the two previous years. Where we're probably gonna have one team that kind of gets out there, but the rest of y'all from like two to seven, fifty-two, fifty-one, fifty, forty-nine, forty-eight. Just saying. Now, again, people are gonna kill me and think to say, hey, you have no idea what you're talking about, and I'm like, cool, I get it. But I know you guys asked you you asked yourself some tough questions. Is Detroit really made to go a long way in the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, the way they're currently constituted right now, or are they another team that's gonna try hard in a regular season, and then when they are playing a team for six, seven games in a row, when they can sit there and just scheme for Cake Cunningham, and when's the right time to blitz him, and where's the right time to put you know a bigger defender on him, and whatever the case may be, and you're looking around and you're trying to find and you're trying to manufacture a second option between the likes of Duncan Robinson, Isaiah Joe, and John Collins. Oh, let's throw Jalen Duran in that mix. You make 40 million, dude. You're in that mix. I just don't see it. I just don't see it. Can you win a ton of games? Yeah, one hundred percent you could. Should you be a team that wins like fifty-five games a year? Yeah, one hundred percent. And I'm not saying you can't. But I wonder if like with Toronto getting quiet, Tyrese being back from Indiana, does your gap fall a little bit? Oh, again, New York just won a title, by the way. So as far as what their confidence level is going to be, they're gonna have that championship glean to them a little bit. Boston is on a rampage to get back to where they think they belong. Philadelphia loaded up. So are you sure you're like this close to 60 win team again with what you currently have? Or more are you are you more of a team that's gonna kind of fall back to the pack, win like 52 games, be a third seed to a fifth seed, because depending on win-loss records against these other teams, they're gonna have basically the same record as you will depend on your playoff seeding. So that's what I think about Detroit. That's what I think about the Durant contract. Listen, I know that they I know they trade Jan Lane had to pull the trigger. I'm not saying that Jalen Duran is not a good player. I just never my I never thought for one second was he worth the 40 million. Call me the bad guy, call me whatever you want. I don't see the defensive prowess to to to sanctify this deal. I don't see the offensive game that says, okay, okay, yeah, this dude is this dude is worthy of this money. So that's my that's the team that I usually root for. But I don't have blinders on going, yeah, Walker Kessler, 30 something million for show. Nope. No. So if I feel this if I feel that way about Walker Kessler and I put on purple and gold sunglasses from time to time, as an analyst, I'm looking at your team and going, okay, Jalen Dorn, 40 million dollars, that's great. You should win 50 plus games for sure. But I have no expectations for you in the playoffs. Zero. As you're currently constituted, no expectations whatsoever. You'll be in the dog fight you're for your own division, and you'll be in the dog fight for anywhere between second to sixth place in the East. One team is gonna be the rabbit and jump out. One team will. I think they currently reside in New York City, honestly. But that's for another

Group Chat Ammo And Closing Message

podcast. So, with that being said, I want to thank everybody on being patient with us. And uh, we got this podcast out late, so you guys are gonna get it Sunday. We will hit you with another pod on Tuesday. So, with that being said, we've talked our talk. It's time for us to go ahead and get up out of here, but I want to tell you right now one thing. FRPC is your spot because we talk hoops, and we try to talk intelligent hoops, and we don't try to sugarcut it, code it for you. We try to give you the real real and we try to make sure that you are armed with good information when you go back to your group chats. So do me a favor, share this episode with the one person in your group chat that needs to hear it the most. Pull up on us on X, that's at frontrunner PC, or at socially underscore FRPC. We got an Instagram account as well, that's frontrunnerpc. And the YouTube account is at FRPC Vents. Make sure you are hitting up all of those situations for us. It is greatly appreciated. This is how we get out there, this is how we grow the FRPC army, and we get more and more acolytes for our our our charge for like domination of this space. Because make no mistake about it, we're trying to do that. Now, before we get out of here, and I mean this when I say it, the best part of you is you. And it's still you, not your win-loss record, not your timeline, not your algorithm, just you. Surround yourself with people who actually give you light, the ones who bring you insight and joy and real accountability to speaks into your life. That's your max deal. Appreciate those people out loud and don't wait on a later that nobody's ever promised. Now, here at FRPC, we want to be your hoop family. We're gonna be loud sometimes, and we're gonna make mistakes and be wrong. But we're gonna come back and own those mistakes, and we will always respect your brain. Because anybody can yell at, but very few can actually defend a thought. Until next episode, keep your mind sharp, your heart open, your circle tight, and protect your peace like Cap Space, and never waste it on bad basketball or bad energy. I'm Vince, and we out.