Atlantic Division Win Totals
Front Runner Podcast CollectiveOctober 10, 2026
78
01:34:0264.61 MB

Atlantic Division Win Totals

Summary: A division can tell you what the league is becoming, and the Atlantic might be the clearest mirror we’ve got. We sit down with the numbers and the context to make win total calls that actually make sense, starting with a Brooklyn Nets rebuild that tries to speed-run relevance with Michael Porter Jr, Julius Randle, and a rookie creator in Mikel Brown Jr. We talk about why Brooklyn’s efficiency craters where it does, what happens when your best scorer stops getting easy looks, an...

Summary: 

A division can tell you what the league is becoming, and the Atlantic might be the clearest mirror we’ve got. We sit down with the numbers and the context to make win total calls that actually make sense, starting with a Brooklyn Nets rebuild that tries to speed-run relevance with Michael Porter Jr, Julius Randle, and a rookie creator in Mikel Brown Jr. We talk about why Brooklyn’s efficiency craters where it does, what happens when your best scorer stops getting easy looks, and why DayRon Sharpe is suddenly one of the biggest swing factors in the entire division.

Then we cross the border to Toronto, where the Raptors make a massive Kawhi Leonard bet and somehow the line barely moves. We break down what Kawhi still brings as a late-clock closer, why Scottie Barnes’ growth matters more than raw points, and how Immanuel Quickley and Colin Murray Boyles shape the floor and the playoff ceiling. The big question is simple: are you betting on the player, or betting on the availability?

Philadelphia brings the chaos. The roster looks like the Avengers, but the usage math adds up to 146 percent, which means somebody’s game has to shrink. We dig into Joel Embiid’s health, LeBron James at 42 and what style he’ll accept, Jalen Brown’s isolation gravity, and Tyrese Maxey’s importance to keeping the whole machine fast and functional. We close with Boston’s cost-cutting tension after a seismic trade, and the New York Knicks trying to repeat with a championship core that still has answers for every problem.

Subscribe for more division previews, share this with your favorite NBA sicko, and if you disagree with our over under calls, leave a review and tell us which number you’re smashing and why.


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Chapters

00:00:00 - Atlantic Division Setup And Socials
00:04:51 - Brooklyn Starts At The Bottom
00:09:01 - Why The Nets Cannot Score
00:09:23 - Michael Porter Jr Gets All Attention
00:12:00 - Julius Randle Fit And Timeline
00:16:13 - DayRon Sharpe As Sole Anchor
00:18:26 - Mikel Brown Jr Rookie Upside
00:25:23 - Nets Picks And Win Total Call
00:27:39 - Raptors Swing Big For Kawhi
00:34:53 - Barnes Quickly And Playoff Growth
00:40:07 - Raptors Over Under Keys
00:45:05 - Sixers Build The Avengers Lineup
00:52:45 - LeBron Role And Style Concerns
00:59:32 - The 146 Percent Usage Problem
01:03:38 - Sixers Win Total And Fan Question
01:05:14 - Celtics Trade Brown And Cut Costs
01:13:18 - Tatum Return And Rotation Questions
01:19:26 - Celtics Win Total Under Call
01:19:36 - Knicks Championship Core Returns
01:24:11 - Towns Defense OG Magic And Depth
01:28:20 - Knicks Over Call And East Outlook
01:30:31 - Wrap Up And Closing Message

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Atlantic Division Setup And Socials

FROC Host Vince Carter

Air and let's get into today's pot. We will be breaking down the Atlantic division today, and I'm excited about it personally. Um, we're gonna start off with a team that went 20 and 62 and still ended up with a non-top five draft pick, deals with the team that is from the Great North, and then we'll throw in a couple numbers that make no sense whatsoever because I don't know how you get to 146%, but I'll explain how that works in the city of Brotherly Love. 16 is the number in Boston that we need to talk about, and we'll get to that and what that actually means, and what it means to the franchise, what it means to the fan base, and then we will go to Gotham and uh we will see the number there is nine. Five teams, one division, the Atlantic, one of the toughest divisions in all of basketball this year. Now, here's the thing we did not wing this, we crunched the numbers, the crew was all over it. Our producer Jordan, she was uh killing it. Um, we uh scoured over a bunch of numbers and what have you. We have our social media people and also our graphics designer making up cards that go out for the social media. And if you are not with us on TikTok and IG and X, get down with this. Uh on X it's frontrunner PC, so at front runner PC on IG it's frpc Vince and on X or until on Twitter and to the on X Twitter, the other thing that I'm new to is the Tiki Tox. Yeah, I call them the Tiki Tox. Alright, I'm old. I can say whatever the hell I want now. I'm on a new level at this point, so yeah, get with us on TikTok, and that's also FRPC Vince. We will be glad to have you uh make your voices heard. We want to be able to hear you, we want to be able to use some of your feedback on the on the pod as well, and talk to you directly. So that's the whole thing. So we did that, we crunched the numbers, thalks overtakes. You know how it is here, it's the standard, it's not it's a way of life here, so it's not about flipping a coin, it's about what we actually believe, and we will get you the win totals of the teams in the Atlantic Division. So we're in zone coverage, it's the Atlantic Division, and let's go. This is where we will talk like friends, we might argue like cousins, and still walk out smarter than we came in. I am your host, Vince, your occasional hoop therapist, your absolute favorite bad influence when it comes to completely reckless NBA overreactions that low-key make perfect sense. We are actually going to not get in the film room, but we crunch the numbers for you today. We're gonna have grown conversations about how players, coaches, and the front office are actually moving, who's writing the blank checks, and what is all the drama in the locker room, the PR spin, and we will have actual verify receipts. So we will be bringing the jokes, the advanced math, and the exact barbershop memo that you come to know and love and appreciate from Frontrunner Podcast Collective that you can take straight back to your group chats and completely nuke the argument. If you're an NBA sicko like me, who wants more than a highlight talk? If you want some context, you want numbers that support your point, you come to the right place. This is FRPC, and let's go.

Brooklyn Starts At The Bottom

FROC Host Vince Carter

We will we are going to continue our series with the Atlantic division. We will go from basically worst to first, that type of thing. And what we'll be looking at at first is the Brooklyn Nets. Now, they are at the bottom of the division last year. They won 20 games, they lost 62, and somehow ended up with a pick outside the top five. The Nets are uh at the top here at the Atlantic division that we're gonna talk about. Uh, they're coming off an extremely uh forgettable year. Okay, they have one of the lowest uh win totals on the books, which is like 24 and a half, uh second lowest in the league. Now they've added Julius Randle, they drafted Mikel Brown Jr., who I actually I absolutely like. Uh obviously, hopefully they can get Michael Porter Jr. to play more than the the amount of games he played last year. So first and foremost, again, they have the the books in Vegas aren't very happy with them. 24 and a half wins, only Sacramento has a lower win total probability. Uh coming off a year where they again they had 20 wins last year. The the things that we need to talk about is this. These are the numbers that make they're gonna make some sense to you. They were 30th when it came to paint field goal percentage, which is 55.3. They were 28th in mid-range uh percentage at 37.1, and they were 30th in three-point percentage at 34%. That translation is that they couldn't finish, they couldn't they couldn't space, and guess what? More changes happened. Like Nick Claxton getting out of town, and Jay Dayron Sharp is going to be the center. Now D. Ron Sharp is getting a uh just a perennial backup. Uh he is a plus 0.4 per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Without him, they are negative nine. So hopefully this will help. Now, they also have the first the five first-round draft picks from last year, and I want to get into this a little bit. So they have Drake Powell, who his box plus minus was negative six, Nolan Treori, the kid from France last year, he had a box plus minus of negative six point eight. Ben Saraph, who I think is gonna end up being a player somehow, some way in this league. He had a box plus minus of negative 7.3, and Danny Wolf, who is the seven-footer who can pass the ball, or supposedly pass the ball, he had a negative 2.5. Only Egar Dem uh how they say it, Eggard Demon. I'm gonna butcher that name for a while. I need to get the pronunciation correct. But he had a negative 1.6, uh, he got all rookie votes, so he was the shining light of the five first-round draft picks they had. And let me tell you something. If this guy is the one guy that turns out to be a player, that's a bad draft. You know, I'm hoping that Drake Powell, Nolan Treori, or Ben Sarah really kick off something. I think Danny Wolf will actually end up being a backup big somehow that can uh stretch the floor a little bit, but they need to get something out of these uh five players if they're gonna make any sort of run towards a better record than they had last year.

Why The Nets Cannot Score

FROC Host Vince Carter

We already talked about that Nick Claxton's gone, so with him is his 11.7 points and his 6.9 rebounds. They're now in Chicago, and the Nets draft class being as terrible as it was might have a lot to do with the next guy we're gonna talk about, which is Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr Gets All Attention

FROC Host Vince Carter

Michael Porter Jr. last year scored about 24.2 points a game. Now his usage went from 20.2% to 30.5%. As we told you last year, remember there was uh they had Thomas and they had Porter, and I was like, Porter is now free from Denver, so he's gonna take a lot of shots, and he did do so. My man was out here shooting for sure, for sure. His true shooters percentage slipped from uh 61.7% to 59.5, so not a bad dip for somebody who was handling the ball and shooting the ball a lot. His assist rate doubled though, it went from 8.7% to 18.2%, which is great. Now, he only had 9% of his threes that were absolutely wide open. I know that was a culture shock for him being on a team with Jokic, Murray, and Gordon for as many years as he was. To see that situation happen to him must have been just eye-opening. It was like, oh yeah, you're the first dude on the whiteboard now, Mr. Porter Jr. Just so you know. Now that might change with the little help that he got, and we'll get to that guy in a second. But Michael Porter Jr., be careful for what you asked for. You wanted the ball, you wanted more shots. Guess what, my man? You got all the shots you want. But what comes with that is a lot of attention from the other team. A scout that I talked to, um, this is in the from the Southeast, you see, he said he studied him for years. The question isn't whether Porter can score, it's whether Brooklyn can get him to get a clean look. And obviously that had a lot to do with the five the five first-round draft choices that they had last year. None of those guys really popped off, which was a tough scene. So if you don't have Cam Thomas and listen, Cam Thomas wasn't gonna pass to Michael Porter Jr. unless it was like a last second shot, and he didn't have a good look at it. Those two were just battling for shots. Now, Denver Porter was a Audi, and Brooklyn Porter was an inny, so that's a severance take. Let's check his availability for the last four years. Here's the thing it's gone up 52, 62, 81, 77 over the last four years.

Julius Randle Fit And Timeline

FROC Host Vince Carter

Our guy Julius Randle. Now, Julius Randle returns to New York not as a conquering hero, because he's on the other side of the bridge. He's in Brooklyn, he's not with the Knicks. Now, what he brings with him is his 21.1 points a game, his almost seven rebounds, his five assists, and this dude posts. And what I mean by that is that he comes to play, he played in 79 games in Minnesota last year. His true shooting percentage was uh 58.5%, and he had a box plus minus of positive 1.5. Now the decline is real. The rebound rate has gone from 15.4% to 11.2% since his all-star appearance in 2023, 2022-2023 season, his three-point shot, uh, is down to thirty-one point five percent on four and a half tries. Now, I'm not here to shit on Julius Randle because there was also some things in uh in Minnesota that weren't as good either, but he was the second guy to Anthony Edwards, and being that second guy to Anthony Edwards was had an important role. So you might have lost some things in some of the stats as far as that's concerned, but you pres you with your almost 22 points a game, and being playing effective defense, um, and providing a outlet for Anthony Edwards was crucial. Now, some of those shots weren't as good as maybe they could have been with like a more diverse team as far as ball handling is concerned, and being able to find you in the right spots, but you handled your business well, and like I said, your true shooting percentage went from like 61.7 to 58.5, not bad. Now, he was uh fourth and assist on threes over the last seven years. Only Jokic and Giannis Anta Tacumpo and Luka Doncic are ahead of him. That's a good stat to know. Now, if Brooklyn can shoot some threes this year, which and uh listen, this is outside of Michael Porter Jr. We know he can shoot some threes, he's a dead eye shooter. We're talking about the other dudes. Okay, the other dudes. So I think he and uh Michael Porter Jr. will make a good tandem and kind of be the they'll be the basically the buoy in the water that will keep Brooklyn afloat and keep them somewhat competitive in these games. Now his playoff games that's another thing to talk about, and the reason why we bring it up is this Do we do we believe that Julius Randle is in Brooklyn for the long haul? Or is he just there until the early part of February, late part of January? It's a question to ask. Cause here's the numbers in the playoffs 12 playoff games, PER 10.6, not great, true shooting percentage 47.9. Small sample size, but it was the last thing we saw. He turns 32 November 29th. That also tells you why I'm thinking what I'm thinking when it comes to Julius Randle. I think what you're gonna see is that he's gonna be the facilitator that Porter needed last year that he they did not get from one of the first with the five first-round draft picks that they had. Um, you got two high usage forage and no rim protection. That does not go well for their outcome as far as what they're gonna look like this year. Keep your passers close and your shooters closer, man, because these dudes gonna get up shots.

DayRon Sharpe As Sole Anchor

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, the rim protection falls to Dayron Sharp. Now, we will see how this works, but in 18.7 minutes, his PER was 20.5. He had a true shooting percentage of 63.8. Now, per 36 minutes, he averaged 16.7 points a game and 12.9 rebounds. That's crazy production. That's our math, that's us getting in, you know, we get into the crates, man, over here at FRPC. The only one of five players to hit 15, 12, and 36 uh in thir per 36 in each of his last three seasons. Now, some of the warts on Day Ron Sharp, he has a 20% turnover rate. He's only 67.8 from the free throw line, and his block rate went from 4.6 to 2.1. He only had seven starts last year, so this is gonna be a whole new world for our guy. So we'll see how it all goes. And with Claxton gone, you know, it's him and Danny Wolf that are manning the uh rim. Good luck to Brooklyn. Listen, it's gonna be a slow build in Brooklyn. It's gonna be a slow build. Analytics director from another team said this it's the easiest raise on that roster, sharp's minutes. Sharp is the only net with a with a positive on-off. Naturally, he starts seven games. So they kind of like the his ability. They think that you know, with giving more minutes, his productivity will go up. I am I am dubious on that. I'm not saying that it won't go up. I don't know if the efficiency will actually stay the same with more minutes because you're gonna have a expanded role, my guy. You're gonna be the lone rim protector, you're definitely gonna be the rebounder. Um now Julius will help you with that, and maybe them as a tandem being like a bruiser when it comes to that will be helpful.

Mikel Brown Jr Rookie Upside

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, another guy who will help them, it's kind of funny that they ended up with another guard, is Mikhail Brown Jr. Hey, if you fail one year in the lottery, God dogged it, pick some more. If you can't get a bucket from the five guys that you got last year, go out and draft another one. And Mikhail Brown Jr. comes from Louisville, he was the sixth overall pick in the 2026 uh NBA draft. He is 6'5, he averaged 18.2 points a game, he had 3.3 rebounds and almost five assists at 4.7. Now he only played in 21 games because he had an injury. Now the numbers will not look great. Okay, he only shot 41% from the field, he shot 34.4% from three, but here's the saving grace. He shot 84.4% from the free throw line. So that tells me right now that that 34% might have a lot to do with the injury situation and not with that man's touch. He shoots 84% from the free throw line. So I'm good there. Now, do through December 13th, this was his numbers 16.6 points a game on 38% shooting, 27% from the three-point line, and 84% from the free throw line. Now he missed eight games. Check this out from January 24th to February 23rd. This is what he put up, and I think this is more indicative of who he is. 21.1 points a game on 45% shooting overall. Check this out. 43% from three-point land and 85% from free throw line. He had a 45-point game against NC State, where he went 10 of 16 from the land of three. He re-heard his back late. He missed the ACC and the um March Madness tournament. I love this kid. I think this kid is going to be good. It's just the injury bug. His playmaking was uh outstanding. He was uh he had a 30.3 assist rate, which was fourth among freshmen in the NCAA last year, and he had a box plus minus of positive five. Just telling you, I love this kid. One scout who's tracking this class head, he's a he's a creator who's better making his own shot than catching and shooting. So my man likes to get into his dribble package, he likes to do his James Harden Um clone type situation and go ahead and really get into his back. Now, the buggable is the injury. Is this a is this a lingering situation? Is this something that we're gonna have to deal with on a year-to-year basis? Now he's thin, he's 190 pounds, so he should fill out a little bit more. But 190 is not that terrible at 6'5. I mean, yeah, you would love for him to be like Brandon uh or Braden Burries from uh Milwaukee, where that dude was six foot four and like 210 pounds, that'd be great, but he's not that. So he's gonna have to put on weight in Brooklyn. We will see how that works out. Now his um efficiency should get better because his shot selection should get better because he will be playing with Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. Those three guys are gonna be pretty much the hope to space the floor out. Now, Dayron Sharp is not the guy that is going to post up and you know say, okay, hey, get me the ball in the low post. I'm gonna go ahead and work. That is not his situation. Screen and roll, my guy. That's your deal. What we're hoping to see is either Igor Demon or Nolan Treori or Ben Seraph come to the forefront and help one of these guys out. You know what I'm saying? You need more help. One of those couple of those guys need to hit from that draft class of 2025, and that's all there is to it. But Mikel Brown Jr., Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle as far as spacing and uh offensive creation should kind of anchor that team. Now, the keys for them to go over this year, over their total, Porter plays 70 plus game, sharp plays more than 26 minutes a game, and Randall turns quarters 9% wide open rate into something more respectable and real. Now, why they don't go over? You got two high usage forwards, no real protection, you have six young players that had a box plus minus of anywhere from negative one point six to negative seven point three. Is Mikel Brown Jr. going to be an effective guard right off the bat? Usually the history tells us no, right? It tells us that it doesn't happen that way. Sharks minutes are are there, but do they amount to anything? I think the focus for the fans is this. Concentrate on the young players, which one of the five or two, hopefully two or three of the five, pop off, right, from last year's draft class, and then what does Mikhail Brown Jr. look like? You are about your youth movement, and then you will have your eyes stuck upon early February, where there might be a trade, whether it's Michael Porter Jr. or whether it's Julius Randle that will hopefully bring you something back that helps you build upon the future that you're laying in Brooklyn while the Knicks continue to eat up all the headlines and become basically New York's well, they are New York's team. You are playing for I don't even know if you're playing for second place right now, and I'm not trying to be disrespectful. Brooklyn really needs to move back to New Jersey for show. For sure. I am I am 100% positive on that.

Nets Picks And Win Total Call

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, do they have picks? Yes, they do. They actually got next picks, which aren't going to be great. They got their own pick, but they got next picks too. Uh 2027, 2029, and 2031 first. They also have a Denver first of 2032. They have uh Houston holds swap rights on the next on the Nets pick for 2027. So here's the thing. Houston could be looking at something pretty tasty when it comes to this year's draft. That that freaking sucks for the Nets. I think that was that was part of the Harden deal. Remember that? Remember when James Harden kind of ate his way out of Houston and then kind of emoed his way out of Brooklyn? Yeah, the 2027 pick is gonna come back to haunt him. Now, you would say, well, Ark, I think the call is this. I hate to say it. I think they're probably going to go slightly over their 24 and a half uh win win total that uh I think is uh draft DraftKings has put out for them. Actually, no, this is FanDuel. I apologize. FanDuel quotes out 24 24 and a half win total over under. I think they might beat it by like one and a half games, 26 wins. I don't think that the combination of Porter Jr. and and Julius Randle will amount to a lot. I think as Julius starts to age, he needs to fall into a more um complimentary role instead of being like a primary type of guy. And I think uh unless one of the or two of the guys from their last two draft cap uh class pop off, this is gonna be a tough season. So that means that pick is gonna end up in Houston. So we're looking for them to go to 26 and 56. Right? Yep, 26 and 56. We need to go uh across the

Raptors Swing Big For Kawhi

FROC Host Vince Carter

border. We need to go to Toronto. What's happening in Toronto? A couple things. They won 46 games last year, they lost in game seven um to Cleveland. They traded Brandon Ingram and Grady Dick to the Los Angeles Clippers for Kawhi Leonard on last year's numbers. It is the biggest per minute upgrade any Atlantic team made, and the line did not move. Man, they are supposed to be at 45 and a half games, and they stayed there. So what do we expect from our Houston or our Toronto Raptors this year? Can they go from can they can they beat that 45 wins? Well, we'll we'll dive into the numbers and see. We'll see what happens. I think right now there's two things that we need to talk about. One, their offense have just gotten way better with Kawhi Leonard in it. Um, you take out Brandon Ingram and Grady Dick, Markel Foltz, and also Sandro Mamu Kilish Vili, who is a Los Angeles Lakers, and we love him. Thank you, Toronto. Thank you for Mamu. We appreciate it. They're gonna miss his 80 games that he played, his 11.2 points off the bench, uh, his true shooting percentage of 63.7 percent and his positive box plus minus a 2.8. Their front line is thinner, no doubt, but the price of Kawhi Leonard is this. Check this out. Hey man, we are gonna tell you that you are gonna get picks way in the future. Kawhi won't even be playing with us when this happens. Uh, 2031 and 2033 first round picks unprotected that will be going to the Clippers. But check this out they have a 2027 first round swap with the Clippers. So if the Clippers don't have a good season, which they shouldn't, Toronto gets that pick. Not bad. Toronto keeps its own first of 2028, 2029, and 2030 and 2032. So they got they still got some stuff to do. Um, they made the Clippers an offer, and the Clippers couldn't refuse it. They wanted to get Kawhi out of town so bad, just the bad taste in their mouth, all the publicity that was just going on with them, and and just all the nonsense. It was just like, hey, man, go. Just this was a failed experiment. We don't even want to look at you no more. Skip up out. Shouldn't have done that. Because now he's going to Toronto. And Toronto was a team on the rise last year, and this is what he brings with him. Kawhi Loki had a great year last year. This dude almost averaged 28 points a game. He was 27.9 points a game. His true shooting percentage was 62.9%. He had a usage rate of 33.5, and his box plus minus was a solid positive eight. He shot 38.7% from three on damn near seven tries. 6.8 to be exact. He almost shot 90% from the free throw line. You gotta love that. Uh on 5.7 attempts, and he was seventh in MVP voting last year, and he was second team all NBA. So even though Kawhi is at an advanced age, he's still playing like an absolute G and a certified stud. And he's not alone, he won't get alone this year. That's the great part about this, is that with Scotty Barnes, and we'll get into him a little bit, also Emmanuel Quickly and a couple of the other guys there, it's not like Kawhi's gotta do it by himself. So I like that. I like this pickup. Um my hope is that Kawhi Leonard can play in more than 65 games. That's always going to be the problem with him. Um he played in 222 of the possible 328 games over the last four seasons, which is 68%. Uh games played 52, 68, 37, 65. He sat out all of 2021 and 2020, uh 21-22 season with an ACL injury. Uh only 22 of 37 playoff games. That's absolutely crazy. And over the last six years, and he's 35 years of age. So, do you think that Kawhi Leonard will play the the key is not how many games they will win? Y'all need to go on Calci and figure out does Kawhi Leonard play 65 games? Does he get himself eligible for the postseason awards? What's your thoughts on that? Because last year he played 65 on the nose. Does he do it again? History says no. History says that he would not do it again, and he's 35 years of age. So I'm hmm, I don't know. Now, what makes this a good fit is that Toronto now has a go-to guy at the end of the shot clock. Um, his effective field goal percentage in the last six seconds of the shot clock is 53% over the last three years. That's ninth of 130 in 131. He's a half-court closer for a team that lives in transition. So, if you're looking for somebody to get you a basket, Kawhi Leonard is that dude. When you watched him last year, um it isn't whether Kawhi helps Toronto win or not. It's whether Toronto can keep him on the floor. It's all about his availability. Kawhi is basically the Doctor Strange of the NBA. Every timeline has the win. You just have to be on the one where he's available. Right? You got to get the good Kawhi, not the bad Kawhi, not the guy who takes off two or three weeks, nobody knows where he is. He's in some sort of undisclosed location or whatever the case may be. That can't be where he need where he does in Toronto. He can't be the same dude that he was when he was what with the Los Angeles Clippers, whatsoever. Now, is he gonna get 65 games or is he gonna play 40? Now you would say with the help that he got with the Toronto Raptors, he'll probably play close to 65.

Barnes Quickly And Playoff Growth

FROC Host Vince Carter

I think when you have Scottie Barnes, who is looking like a guy who is gonna take another step. I think last year showed us something. Now he scored less points last year at 18.1 from his prior year, which was 19.3, but everything else went up. His field goal percentage went up, he went from 44.6 to 50.7, his true shooting went up, he went from 57.7 to yeah, he went he went from 52.3 to 57.7, so all these numbers are up. Um, he had a win share percentage of uh 0.14, that's up from 0.0878, and his box plus minus went from he basically switched numbers around. He went from 2.4 positive to 4.2. We love Scottie Barnes, we love how he plays. This is um a guy that can facilitate, be a connector piece, and now he has a guy that can really be dynamic in the scoring department that he can connect to to go along with the Emmanuel Quicklys and the uh Colin Murray Boyles of the world. So I like what they have here in Toronto. Now he would he play 80 games, he was an all-star, he was fifth in defensive player of the year, and obviously he made uh second team all defensive team. Now, here's the rub. He's still a abysmal shooter from three, he's only 30.4 percent, but with Kawhi next to him, maybe a little little less pressure, maybe he can take one less three a game, you know, on average, maybe that'll help him with his average of shooting the three. And also, again, he might not be called upon to shoot as many threes with Kawhi there and with Emmanuel quickly healthy. Now, our guy that we absolutely love, and the person that I think might actually get pinched in this situation is Colin Murray Boyles. Now, this dude has the chance and the opportunity to be a breakout candidate. He only played in 57 um games last year for the Toronto Raptors, but I don't even want to talk about those. I want to talk about the playoff games that my man played. The 14.4 points a game, the 6.4 rebounds, the uh 65.6% field goal percentage, the true shooting percentage of 68.5, and the ungodly positive box plus minus of 5.6. That's incredible for a rookie. And he we he did that in the playoffs, so all his numbers went expeditiously up in the playoffs from the regular season. This man was not scared of the moment whatsoever. He just he thrived in the environment. He was like, shit, this is like March Madness. But if we don't win a game, we'll be able to go back and play another one in a couple days. Cool. Let me go out here and get some rebounds, let me go out here and get some points, you know what I'm saying? Play some some stud defense and just be that guy. Now, things to survive playoff basketball. When you shooting 60 62% from your two situation, and your offensive rebound rate is uh 12 12% on on the dot, and your block rate is 4.1, and you have a defensive box plus minus of positive 1.5 as a rookie, you're doing some things. I appreciate your effort, and I appreciate you just absolutely flourishing in the moment. CMB is about that life. Let's just call it what it is. Now, things to work on, right? You're a rookie, always things to work on 34% on a volume of less than one shot per game. So 17 of 50 over the season, our math says, and I'm just saying oh for three in the playoffs. Not great. So what are you gonna do with this kid? He gets it in, and I think he's just gonna get better. I think this is just one step in the right direction. That playoff appearance really showed me a lot in what this kid is and what this kid is trying to do.

Raptors Over Under Keys

FROC Host Vince Carter

The other guy that we need to talk about in earnest is Emmanuel Quickly. He played in 70 games last year. We need him to play the type of basketball that he is known to play. You know what I'm saying? And what I mean by that is that we need you to do the exact same thing last year. The 16 and a half points a game, the six assists a game, all shooting 37.5% from three on damn near seven tries. We need all of that from you. The turnover rate, 9.3%, not bad. You had career highs games as a rafter. I love that. Because you only played in 38 and 33 the last two. You're a good shot creator, but you're not a great shot creator. But I think with Scottie Barnes being there and the gravity that Kawhi Leonard causes, you might be able to get better shots than you did in the last couple years, anyway. And they also got a rookie out of Santa Clara, 19th in the draft. His name is Alan Graves. He is a kind of a jack of all trades. This is another guy who's long, long, he's a long wing, he's like six foot eight, six foot nine. Defensive mentality, uh, provides a little scoring, provides a little offensive creation, gets on the boards pretty well. This is a solid bench piece. What the Raptors don't have is a lot of big help. And this is where I will start to talk about what they might have and what they might be doing. If they go over, that means Kawhi plays 65 games, okay, in around 32 minutes. Holds uh the shoot his shooting efficiency as a starter. I don't know if he's gonna start personally. I think he's gonna be coming off the bench. Yakka Cardo needs to stay healthy. He only played in 46 games last year, and when he was on the court, he had a 70% field goal percentage. When he obviously he can't help you when he's off the court. Now, for them not to hit their total, uh Kawhi Leonard misses 25 plus games. The youth collision slows the transition offense that scored 18.9 fast break points last year. Quickly's injuries aren't resolved. You know what I'm saying? So, what do the fans need to focus on? Kawhi staying healthy, Scotty Barnes still being the dude that he is, a walking triple double as soon as he wakes up in the morning. And what does Colin Murray Boyles do for Encore? I don't know. I can't wait to find out. Now I will say this. They got some picks, so if there was something they needed, they can go out and get it, and they have enough like um what I call like transition contracts where they can go out and and make a deal for a piece if they need one down the road. I like that. Now I think the Raptors will get over their forty five and a half win total that uh FanDuel has for them. I think they'll get to forty seven wins personally. But I think what they're gonna look like in the playoffs is gonna be I want to see who they're matched up against. Cause they might cause some chaos in the playoffs. So I'm not really like And people are sitting there going, oh, 47 wins is crazy for a team. You know how stacked the East is, right? Like, I don't think there's going to be a team in the East that wins 60 games or even close to it. I think the team that is going to be like with the number one record in the East probably has at the most 56 wins. And then it kind of goes down from there. So we'll see how it all goes. But I like Toronto. I like the direction they're headed. Um Kawhi Leonard was a swing, but it didn't really hurt them in the long run, like in the like in the next three to four years as far as draft picks are concerned. So I'm good with what they did. I think they got him for a song. They signed him up for a couple more years. So now he's three years left there. And let's see what they do. Moving on to a team that I know everybody wants to talk about, and that is the Philadelphia 76ers.

Sixers Build The Avengers Lineup

FROC Host Vince Carter

Best five on paper, the hardest to bet on the board. Boy, I tell you. Now, what has made Philly so dynamic? Well, first of all, they traded Paul George and Pigs for Jalen Brown. And then they followed it up with signing LeBron James to basically a vet minimal contract. And now my man is taking helicopters from Philadelphia to New York City. Because you know he wasn't staying in Philly, right? But now you look at the 76ers lineup, and it is just star-studded. You got Joel Embiid at the center, you got LeBron James, you got Jalen Brown, you got Tyrese Maxie, and you got VJ Edgecomb. Poor VJ Edgecomb. Oh, I'm gonna get the ball next year. I'm gonna go ahead and score crazy. I'm just gonna be out here doing stuff. I almost averaged like seven 17 points or what 18 points a game last year. You know, I dunked on people, I look great. Oh, hey, VJ, just so you know, we just traded for LeBron and Jalen Brown. Or actually, we traded for Jalen Brown and signed LeBron James. So we're gonna need you to go ahead and stand in this corner and shoot some threes. And take less shots than you did last year because we're gonna have to accommodate these dudes that we just brought in. So our guys' development is stymie. I don't like that. I do not like that, but I understand it because talent is talent. So what did Philadelphia do last year? They were 45 and 37 last year. They beat Boston in seven games. Uh in B, played like an absolute animal, and then couldn't back it up with in the next round. He just ran out of gas. He was tired, and I think he was a little bit injured again. They're over under this year. It's 50.5. We'll see if they get there. Actually, is it 50.5? Yeah. So I think that's gonna be a hard call. But they are like the Avengers, man. They assembled all of them. It's now who's gonna play 60 plus games? That's you know, that's beyond my pay grade. I don't know that. But this team is completely changed over. You got Jalen Brown, like we said, LeBron James, they got KCP out of Memphis. They got Anthony Simons. Hakordy got hurt, so he would he was a new guy also on this team. They got Dean Wade. Oh, and they also got they drafted in the uh first round last year with the 22nd overall pick. LeBaron Phylon Jr. Now, LeBron Phyllon Jr. is like 6'4, 6'5. He's real thin. I think he's like 175 pounds. So I don't expect a lot from him this year, but I really don't expect a lot from him this year because of what the roster looked like. So we'll see how that goes. Now, out was Paul George, Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, Quentin Grimes, and Cooley uh Kelly O'bre Jr. The tsunami poppy is in Indiana. I wish they I wish they would have been able to keep Kelly O'bre Jr. That would have been a nice little bench piece, you know, get you 13 to 15 points a game, you know, just going out and doing things. Not having that is going to be a bummer. What do they have as far as picks are concerned? Now Philly has their own 2027 pick, 29, 30, 32, and 33. So they are still good as far as picks are concerned after the Jalen Brown trade. So it's not like they're hurting, it's not like they just strip the team down to the studs to get him. Now the other guy they have to worry about is again, we we're gonna sound like a broken record. How many games are you getting out of Joel and B? Because when he plays, obviously, it's great. Almost 27 points a game. His true shooting percentage is 60.5. It would be more, but he shoots a bunch of threes. His usage is 33.5. That's gonna have to change. He was a uh 4.9 box plus minus, but that was only in 38 games. It's it's tough. The last couple years his box plus minus has gone from like MVP type of box plus minus to regular dude box plus minus. Um, a couple years about four years ago, you were looking at nine point two, three years ago. You were looking at eleven point six, uh two years ago was three point five. Now last year he did go up a little bit to four point nine. We'll see how that goes. But it's not the same guy that he was, it's just not his defensive rebound rate has gone from 28.8% to 20. His free throw rate has also dipped by 10%, uh 58.1% to down to 48.1%, so 10 on the notes, and his block rate has gone down by one full percentage, which is 4.6 to 3.6 last year. All this has to do with the injuries, it has to do with the the lower limb injuries and what have you. Now he's in way better shape, um, a lot thinner than he was. We just hope that his his knees and his legs can stabilize him through this next upcoming season. All there is about it at this point. Now, our guy has only played in 162 of the possible 328 over the last four years, that's 49%. Um, over the last three seasons, he played in 96. So you play 82 games, so that's 246. And you play 96 of a possible 246. And he's only played in 45 of the possible 94 playoff games. This is crazy, man. This year is gonna be like Phil Collins in the air tonight, man. Cause you got the squad. This is everybody's looked at your squad and said, This is tough. Now, obviously, LeBron James is gonna have to change his ways a little bit. But after watching the preseason game last night, I was I'm I'm a little worried. Not about LeBron and what he's gonna do. It's the style of play that I'm worried about. And I'll get to that uh towards the end of what our prediction is for the Philadelphia 76ers.

LeBron Role And Style Concerns

FROC Host Vince Carter

What you're getting out of LeBron James, first of all, this is year fucking 24. Okay, this is we're we're getting into ridiculous numbers now. Last year, my man put up 21 points a game, six points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists in 60 games. He played 33.2 minutes. True shooting percentage, damn near 60%. 59.4, he had a PR of 20.8, and he had a box plus or minus of positive 3.5. It is a far cry from the normal MVP numbers that we used to see out of LeBron probably when he was in his mid-30s. So think about that. But he doesn't need to be an MVP candidate here. You know what you need to be here? You need to be a connecting piece, you need to play off ball a little bit, you need to allow Terry uh Tyrese Maxie and others to get on ball, and you know, you be a cutter, you be that guy who cuts into the lane now. If you see somebody doing something cool like on the baseline, or also if you see a wide open three-point shooter, go ahead and kick it out to him. This should be the best second side initiator in the game. But here's the thing. If you notice last year, now a lot of this had to do with the Luka Doncic injury and the Austin Reeves injury as well. But LeBron played a primary on-ball role for that team. I'll say that again. He played a primary on-ball role on the Lakers. The Lakers had Luka Doncic. You know what I'm saying? Like, they had to stagger their minutes, you know, like they would start, right? And then they would stagger their minutes because you couldn't have both of them with the ball. And listen, I'm not saying that Maxie is the wizard that Luka Doncic is. I am just saying that those guys like Tyrese Maxie and VJ Edgecombe and Jalen Brown, they like to play with pace. And I know that my guy at 42 does not want to play with pace. Doesn't want no does not want to do that. So are we gonna get the half-court grinded out style where LeBron is dissecting the other team or whatever the case may be? Maybe. Now the numbers say that that it still works. It still works. But the decline is real. He's gone from uh in the last four years, he's gone from a PR of 23.9 to 20.8. The box plus minus was 6.5 four years ago, and obviously, you know what we saw last year is 3.5. So the points have gone from almost 29 points to just over 21 to uh just under 21. His three-point shooting is still not great, it's 31%. He shot a abysmal 73.7% from the free throw line, which is terrible. Now the games played, you know, four years ago, 55, 3 years ago, 71, 72 years ago, and 60 last year. Possible 250 256 games out of possible 328, that's 78%. What do you expect from somebody who turns 42 on December 30th? Why this matters is because Brown is an isolation first player. MV is a post scorer, LeBron is a passer who connects them. So we're gonna see a lot of him on ball. When a uh anonymous scout said this, he says watch them for two decades, says the question isn't the legs, it's whether he'll take a smaller role in get in games in the games that do don't matter. You know, that was the thing last year. They wanted LeBron to play like around 30 minutes. Now you say, oh, well, he only played like 33 and a half, but those minutes add up, especially on somebody who on his legs, on his knees, at the age of 42, father time will catch up to everybody. Now, LeBron has been able to stay off Father Time for a long period of time now, so hey, we will see. Now, the big piece that they got this year was Jalen Brown. Philadelphia went crazy, got Jalen Brown for a song personally, I think. And what did they get? He's coming off a career year. This dude averaged 28.7 points a game. He played in 71 games. You know, his box plus or minus was 3.3. We'll get into that momentarily. Uh true shooting percentage was 57.3%. His free throw attempts went way up. He went from 5.1 to 7.5. Um 34.7% from three on almost six tries. And, you know, he is a bona fide bucket getter. But the other bucket getter on this team that is is the resident bucket getter is Tyrese Maxie, who also averaged 28.3 points a game. 6.6 assists as well. So I'm looking at this dude and I'm hoping that he still gets to hold on to the ball. Now, a little ways down the road, we talked about uh VJ Edgecombe and what his development pathway is gonna be. Remember, he averaged 16 points a game last year. He was third in rookie of the year voting. Now, I don't know how this is gonna work, but we had Brown with a usage rate of 36%, we had MB with a usage rate of 30 and 30 33 and a half, maxi with a usage rate of 29.4, LeBron with a 27.2, and Edgecomb with a

The 146 Percent Usage Problem

FROC Host Vince Carter

20. You know what that adds up to? 146.4. You can only have 100. You can only have 100. Somebody's gonna have to sacrifice. Is VJ Edgecomb gonna have to sacrifice? That sucks. We get why. We understand why why that is right? Jalen Brown is on this team, LeBron James is on this team. How much you get out of Joel and B, that's that's we'll see. But sacrifice is going to have to be made all over this lineup. Now their bench is not as good as last year, but they do have one absolute firecracker off the bench, and that is Anthony Simons. Anthony Simons in uh 49 games last year, 14.2 points a game. He almost shot 40% from three. So I love that. Carwell Coe is old. Not LeBron James old, but old for a regular basketball player. He's 33, and the numbers haven't been great lately. The who's backing up MB, well, it's not gonna be Ariel Hawk Party, because he tore his ACL. MB has a damn bona out of UCLA. That's our guy. A clap all day, and Dominique Burrow. So we will see what they do. Now, does Liberian Feinline play a uh intrical role off the bench as a rookie? That would be really interesting to see. This is remember I told you I want I wish they would have been able to retain Kelly Ubre Jr. This is why the bench is terrible. But when you have five legitimate stars on your starting roster, you think about it, man. I don't know how you stagger these minutes, but you got Embiid, LeBron, Jalen Brown, Tyrese Maxi, and VJ Edgeb. Does VJ Edge Comb play with the bench a lot? Who else plays with the bench a lot? Is that gonna be the LeBron situation? They're gonna have the Nick Nurse has a lot of work to do. Now, what allows the 76ers to go over their win total? Obviously, in B's health, he has to play over 55 games. LeBron has to be at 33 minutes, if not a little bit lower. But I would think that he also has to play 60 plus games for them to go over their win total. Brown's isolation volume drops and maxi keeps his as keeps his games at 70. And y'all learn how to share the sugar. Share the ball in Philadelphia. The reason why the Philadelphia 76ers won't hit their mark of the win total is this. Obviously, MV doesn't play enough games, they never figure out the usage the whole season. You know, and I'm gonna tell you that's gonna be a a struggle. You know, you're gonna have stretches where you're winning games and it looks great and everything like that, but I'm gonna tell you right now, you got to have guys buy into whatever the system is gonna be, or whatever the shot distribution is going to be. Because Maxi had green light all day long last year, and now you're telling him, Oh, yeah, we need you to bottle that up. That can be very difficult for a player.

Sixers Win Total And Fan Question

FROC Host Vince Carter

What the fans need to focus on, cross your fingers. Cross your fingers that MV plays a lot of games. Cross it. Now what helps you out is that you got a clethera picks. You still got your own 2027 first round pick, 2029, 2030, 2032, and 2033. Boston got your pick in 2031. Now, your call is the 50 and a half wins. I think talent wins out. I think you win fifty-two games. I'm putting a lot on MV staying healthy, and I should I should not bet that MV will stay healthy. Now the other question is this will Nick Nurse pick a style and be married to it, or be married to that clotting style that M B and LeBron will prefer them to play? And here is a question for you. Philadelphia 76ers fans. Hit me up on on uh X at Frontrunner PC. Is Maxie not MB the most important player on the 76ers and how he goes, so go the 76ers? That's why I'm saying that you guys are gonna go over.

Celtics Trade Brown And Cut Costs

FROC Host Vince Carter

Next up on the docket is our guys from the Celtics. And the Celtics have a lot, a lot of explaining to do. Boston traded away Jalen Brown. Oh, by the way, seventh best player according to analytics. To the Philadelphia 76ers, obviously, for Paul George. They sign Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley, who is old as dirt. Um, they get back Jason Tatum uh from the Achilles tier. Remember, he had a 16 game cameo last year uh and missed a couple of the pre the uh postseason games as far as that's concerned. Now he was able to spend a full offseason working on skill work rather than rehabbing, which is great. Now the Celtics won fifty-six games last year, but Pandu was saying forty-nine. Forty-nine and a half for the Celtics. What say you? They won fifty-six last year. We're not gonna talk about the postseason. Because we just talked about with the 76ers. Let's get into this team, shall we? Um both recent postseasons have ended in losses to lower seeds, by the way. That's a first and foremost thing. And being number six in the in the east, down one, we'll see. This is last the power rankings that came out from the athletic. If you want to know, it wasn't personal, it was strictly business about Jalen Brown. And when I say that, it's gonna make Boston Celtics fans mad. It was business. You're 100% right, it was. Boston moved on from a 71-game uh player in Brown, their best scorer, who almost averaged 29 points a game, to an often injured 36-year-old. And I'm telling you, that sell job came straight from Bill Chisholm himself and his desk. Brad Stevens just needs to execute the play the playbook and the cost-cutting vision that Chisholm has for him. And the analytics group needs to back it up, uh, back that up the narrative up with numbers. I'm just point blank simple. They weren't going to continue to have a team that where you have Tatum and Brown on it, basically taking up like a hundred and thirty million dollars of the cap. That was not gonna happen. Remember, Brown was due for extension. They were like, nah, we're not paying that. We're cool. We need to get off this dude real quick. And they've been trying to sell that Paul George is a better fit with Tatum than Jalen Brown. Who helped them win a title? By the way, not only helped them win a title, he was the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and then also the NBA finals MVP. Okay? We're not talking about some scrub, dude. We're talking about argument for argument's sake, the second best player on the on the Celtics. I don't care what your analytics department says, or whatever independent number person you got that off of. Now they did draft kind of interesting. Chris Sinick Jr. from Houston was their 27th pick overall, and then they picked up Dylan Mitchell at the 40th pick. What's gone from the Boston Celtics? A bunch of coins. Jalen Brown is gone. We told you what he averaged. They have Rusovic on that team. And I'm not saying that you should have kept him. You know, I don't know if you could have afforded the price tag, but guess what? He's gone. And Anthony Simons is also in Philadelphia. Top five offense and defense for four straight seasons are the Boston Celtics. Is that gonna continue? Their offense was 126.6 per 100% uh what per what per 100 possessions, best in three years. Now, here's the rub, and I don't know if this gets any better with the acquisitions they made. Only 41% of shots in the paint drive into the paint on this roster right now. That's lasting the league for the third straight year. We know that Missoula likes to get up a bunch of po get a butt bunch of three-point shots. We know that, but they need to diversify this offense, and they need to do something with this as soon as possible. And also, can I ask a quick question? Are we expecting Mitchell Robinson to play like 32 minutes a game now? So we're gonna have a hacker Robinson in in Boston. Also, not the most durable dude on the face of the planet either. So, just got some questions there. Just questions all over the board. You traded Jalen Brown, who had his best season, maybe because he said something like, I know I played in the championship game or whatever, Casey McGee, but last year was my most satisfying season that I've had. A lot of people kind of turn their eye up to that one, they gave him a little side eye, thinking like you won a championship with Jason Tato, and you're telling us last seat season was the best season for you. That's disrespectful to the to the fan base. But hey man, that dude was looking to to to spread his wings a little bit. My whole thing is that could you have gotten better if you would have waited. Just asking. Oh, and by the way, you shift them off to a team that you're gonna see four times a year. This doesn't none of this sounds good. And I'm sorry, Boston. I'm trying to throw some rainbows in there somewhere, but the moves are to be critiqued as such because they look suspect. They look like we just tried to tear down payroll. That's what it looked like. And anybody telling you differently is is trying to sell you uh guerrilla goods that's not worth a damn. Just being honest. Now, the good thing about this is that they have their own picks of 2027, 2030, and 2033. Um Philadelphia owns their 2031 pick. Oh, they got their oh, they got Philadelphia's pick from 2031. Uh, they have a conditional situation with Portland and Washington in 2029. That sucks. And the 2032 pick is frozen because of the salary cap. Not great.

Tatum Return And Rotation Questions

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, Jason Tatum is gonna be back. He's maybe he'd be fully back. I will not look at the numbers last year and go, oh, this is this is what he is, what he is. It's not because what he is is like a 27 point per game, dude. He might need to go up from that personally. He's a better rebounder of the ball than the Jalen Brown. I never thought like you should trade Tatum or you know, trade Tatum instead of Jalen Brown. I think you should have tried to find a way to keep them together. Maybe you pare down the payroll somewhere else. They wanted more flexibility down the road. I don't know. We'll see how this all works. But right now, not great. Not great whatsoever. So I think right now, and this is what Paul George numbers look like, by the way. He only played 37 games last year, 17.3 points a game, so you lost 11 points there, 5.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists. He did shoot 39.2% from 3 on 7 tries. His uh true shooting percentage was uh 57%, and his box plus minus was 1.7. Now uh he couple years ago he only played 41 games, so he's played in the last four years 56, 74, 41, and 37 games. Not great, not great, not great. And Derek White needs to have a bounce back year, by the way, just as a FY. That's the other guy that we need to talk about real quick. He played 77 games last year. That's great. He is the heart, he's one of the heart and soul dudes on this team, understandably. Everybody loves Derek White. Here's the thing the three-point shot, the 32.37% is not gonna cut it. Especially on eight eight point three tries. The true shooting percentage is down to 52.9. It was 60 point, it was 60.6 at one point. That's a 77 point drop, man. His two his uh two-point field goal percentage went from 59.3 to 48.7. Now, here's um the other things that he has. He's still one of the best defenders in the league. He still has an incredible block rate for somebody who block shots as a guard, 3.8, which is and he averaged 1.3 blocks a game, which is crazy. He's 32 years of age at this point, and there was somebody I talked to, and they said, Don't worry about the three-point shot. It's the two-point drop that is worth watching. That's the thing that you need to concentrate on. I was like, oh, okay, yeah. So that's when we dug into the numbers and we saw what he shot last year. It was terrible. Now, Mitchell Robertson is gonna be an awesome offensive rebounder. We saw him do it for the Knicks, but he does not play a lot of minutes. He didn't play a lot of minutes when he was in New York, and I'm trying to wrap my head around that we're just going to for a guy who's often injured, we're just gonna give this dude like 30 minutes a game, and that's just gonna be okay. You know what I'm saying? That's just gonna be alright. He only shoots 40% from the free throw line, by the way. So Hacker Robinson will come to the to the Celtics. Now, they have depth on the front court, they have Demais Kita, who was a standout last year. So basically, they have like a three-headed monster at the center position, along with Luka Garza, and also they got the kid Chris Sanak Jr. So that's good. So, what is the record for the Celtics? I'll tell you right now. If Tatum plays over 60 games and plays 30 34 34 minutes, if White gets his three-point shooting up to at least league average, but his twos come up as well? Is Robinson gonna play 55 plus games? Does that fix the paint? Is that center by committee gonna work? Does George play the amount of games that he usually plays, or is he gonna get up to close to the amount that you played to get uh awards? These are all questions that I have. The fans need to focus on their owner. Because you know what is important to you guys, it's gonna be the trade deadline this year. Is there more pairing to come? Is Derek is Derek White on his way out? What's the situation? Cause remember, um, our guy Paul Jordan makes a ton of money too. It's not like you got off this a crazy amount of money. You just didn't have to pay the extension for Jalen Brown, which you did not want to do. So your boy has told you like he's not trying to cost cut, but that's exactly what Bill Chisholm has done. Our call is this I don't think they're gonna get to the over 51. I think they're gonna hit 50. I think they're gonna be competitive, I think they're gonna win 50 games, but they're going under.

Celtics Win Total Under Call

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, the next team that we need to worry about is the New York Knicks, the defending reigning champions of the NBA.

Knicks Championship Core Returns

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, it's all good for the Knicks, right? The Knicks were 53-29 last year, but they were incredible during the playoffs. They were 16-3. They kept on coming back on San Antonio just like it was crazy. It was so crazy. So, what do they do for Encore after they won 53 games? Well, Mitchell Robinson is gone. They replaced him with Andre Drummond, which is kind of like a supposedly a close facsimile as far as rebounding is concerned. Their win total is 52.5. So, what makes this team so good and looking to uh repeat? Well, everybody's back except for Mitchell Robson, so you know you got that. You don't have to worry there. You do have a couple things that you do need to worry about, like the extension for Carl Anthony Towns, which they down the front office is saying that we're gonna table these talks for a little bit. Not feeling that whatsoever. Who else was it? McBride as well. Not feeling that. But hey, it's a Kumbaya season. The Knicks are the world champions, they're the defending world champions, so their team looks still formidable, still formidable. They're gonna sit there and walk into this season with Jalen Brunson now with a championship under his belt. Uh Jalen Brunson had a phenomenal season again last year, 26 points a game, almost seven assists, three rebounds. He said true shooting percentage um was uh 58% or point five eight. Oh he had a box class minus three point one. He is three point percentage has gone down over the last two or three years. He was from 40% down to three point three six three thirty-six point nine. Now he's taking more shots, obviously. His free throw rate has kind of gone down as well. He's gone from uh point three seven three to uh two eight five, which is crazy. Gonna have to get those back up. He's pretty damn durable, he plays in a lot of games. He played at 74 last year, a couple years ago, 65. So he's really about right there. Now, the one weak number with him is his defensive box plus or minus, but that's why they built the team around him. That's why you got OG Ananobi. That's why you got Mikhail Bridges and in the crew. The real key is the I don't even know if you want to call it growth, but the maturity level that Carl Anthony Town showed during the playoffs. I wonder if that's something that he could do for an 82-game season. Now, the numbers are always good. 20 points a game, almost 12 rebounds a game, which is stellar. Played in 75 games. His true shooting percentage was uh uh 619, uh he had a PR of 22, his win shares per 48 was one was point one nine seven. So I love that, and then he had a uh total rebound rate of twenty-one point four, the defensive rebound percentage was thirty one point three or thirty-one point seven. I'm sorry, and the offensive rebound was eleven point two. Now, you can talk about that, or you want to talk about just how what kind of defense he played in the playoffs? Cause that dude was a demon. Not he shot the wall, did all those things. Don't I'm not pooping the numbers. What I'm saying is that the silly fouls went away, and he was able to lock in on his defense assignment and be able to really complete his defense assignments last year, and I thought that was critical to what they were trying to do.

Towns Defense OG Magic And Depth

FROC Host Vince Carter

Now, OG Ananobi will always be known as the dude who tipped the ball in during game four on that incredible comeback that they had no business coming back from. The miracle in the garden, whatever you want to call it, when you have like Hollywood types or whatever case may be, like Ben Stiller and Tracy Morgan and all these dudes just roaming around the garden like they're in a fog of euphoria. Man, it's an incredible, it's an incredible night to be alive. People will talk about that night for a long period of time in New York City. Now, when you look at OG Ananobi's numbers during the regular season, they look quite pedestrian. He averaged 16.7 points a game, 5.2 rebounds, he played in 67 games, right? 33 minutes. Now he shot the ball very well at 38.6% from three on six attempts. His true shooting percentage was 0.620, which is great. His PR was five was 15.8, and his win share sport per 48 was.135. His box plus minus wasn't awesome. But here's the thing. The tip is the only thing that matters. That dude played incredible defense, he was super clutch during the playoffs, he hit shots, he was around the ball all the time. He had a um effective field goal percentage in the playoffs of 67.2%. It's the highest in playoff history for somebody who had a hundred and fifty plus attempts. Tell me that you're not clutch. Dude was awesome. We love OG and Anobi on this podcast. Now the Robinson to Drummond situation, you can sit here and say, hmm, how's that gonna work out? Robinson now in Boston. He gave him 60 games last year, 19 minutes per game, 5.7 points and 8.8 reruns. Now, drumming, 19.5 minutes a game, 6.4 points and 8.4 rebounds. I'm telling you, he was just the Robinson replacement. That's all. I mean, you couldn't have done better than that. You know what I'm saying? Now, do they still have the other cast of characters like Mikhail Bridges? 100% Miles McBride still here, yep. He's still gonna be DM fools up. We also got our guy, Grant Theft Alvarado, you know what I'm saying? He's gonna be bringing just the Moxie and the pressure on the ball. Now, does Mohammed Diora play a more significant role? How about their rookie Sergio De La Rea? We will see how this works out. But they got a couple guys who I'm looking forward to seeing them again a couple couple minutes on the court, and it's Dioire and uh De LaRea. A lot of those two kids don't want to see them develop as far as turn, but the Knicks are going for another championship. So, how do they get there? Brunson stays steady, towns stay steady, but obviously, towns has the contract uh weighing over him. We'll see how that goes. Now, with that, we Are they gonna win enough games? Are they gonna have a championship hangover? If there was a team not to have one, it's gonna be this next team because who is leader? Brunson is unflapable, dude. He's just unflappable.

Knicks Over Call And East Outlook

FROC Host Vince Carter

But fifty-two and a half is a big number. But I'm gonna tell you right now, the Knicks are going over. The Knicks are going over their win total. They're gonna get to 54 games, one, something like that. They're gonna be the team that's favorite coming out the east again. You know? So and the cover is not bare. The cover is not bare. So if they need to make a trade, if something is lacking somewhere, they still have three first round picks that they can deal from. So we'll see how it all goes. But I think that the Knicks are gonna be awesome. I think I don't know if they're gonna repeat. We'll get to that when we get to like predictions or whatever. And here's how we do it here at Front Runner Podcast Collective. Everybody won't tell you what their finals uh situation is gonna be. We're telling you who who's gonna get to the playoffs. We're not gonna necessarily tell you who's gonna get to the finals until guess what? We get to the playoffs. And we do it series by series. Oh, this part the this team's gonna win the series, this team's gonna win the series, and whatever case may be. And here's why. So you haven't been with us for the long haul. Like this is you new for you. That's how we do it. But I do think the Knicks have a really good chance of coming out of the East. That's what I will tell you. Now, this is a long season, a lot of shit could happen. Somebody could get injured, somebody could say, if you don't pay me, I'm a pout. You can s a whole bunch of stuff could happen. But I like the Knicks, I like the the makeup of the team, I like who their leader is, and what what he's able to block out and what have you. So I do like their window staying open a little bit longer. So that is the Atlantic Division.

Wrap Up And Closing Message

FROC Host Vince Carter

I want to thank you guys for listening to this podcast. It did run long, that's okay, because we had a lot of shit that we needed to get to, and it was great. So the Knicks, best team in the Atlantic division. Who would have thought that? I picked them over the Avengers team of the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics. Good luck in their chase of the Knicks. We'll see how it all works out. Boston fans, let me know how your cost-cutting measures go over the next three or four months in Boston. I know you guys gotta be shy-eyeing that new owner right about now. Is he turning into John Henry? Just let me know. Hit me up on Twitter or on X, as you want to put it, at uh frontrunner PC. That's frontrunner, P as in Paul, C is in Charles. And also you can hit up the the other social account, which is at socially underscore FRPC. You know what I'm saying? Follow us on all the all the social medias. FRPC events on IG, FRPC Vince on TikTok, FRPC events on so on YouTube, you know what I'm saying? You know where to find us. So with that being said, um, share this episode with somebody in your group chat that really needs it. Pull up on us on social media. I gave you all the social medias so you know how to get them. And now before we get up out of here, it's the one thing that I always mean to say to you is this the best part of you is you, not your win-loss record, not your timeline, not your algorithm, just you. You just the way you are. We want you to continue to surround yourself with beautiful people who actually give you light, the ones who bring you insight, the joy, and the real accountability that makes you you and makes you productive. That is your max deal. Appreciate them out loud and do not wait on a later day that nobody has promised. If you see something that somebody makes you feel good or whatever, let them know right away, man. Hey, I really appreciate you. Thank you so much. Now, here at FRPC, we want to be your hoop family. We're gonna be loud sometimes. We might get some things wrong, but we're gonna come back and we're gonna own that. But we will always respect your brain because anybody can yell a take. Very few can actually defend a thought. Until the next episode, keep your mind sharp, your heart open, and your circle tight. Protect your peace like cap space and never waste it on bad basketball or bad energy. I'm Vince, and we're out. Take care.

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