Southeast Division Win Totals

Five

Five Teams One Playlist

teams, one playlist, let's dance. We are going to be talking about the Southeast Division. If you know, you know, last uh podcast we talked about the Central Division. We're working our way through all the divisions and their win totals and will they go above or below? This, like I said, this week or this Tuesday, we will be going and talking about the uh the Southeast, which includes the Wizards who have Trey Young. And a couple questions there with Trey Young and also Anthony Davis. Is how young, wild, and free will Trey Young be on the offensive end? And then also, they had 17 wins last year, so they are starting from the bottom close to and no as we go along in this uh podcast. We also are gonna talk about the Charlotte Hornets, and you know, they traded LaMelo ball. That means that front and center is Brandon Miller, and what is he gonna do with his 8.2 threes a game that he shot at a 38% clip? Well, I know one thing, they're never getting back together, LaMelo and the Charlotte Hornets. So we move along to the Orlando Magic, and Orlando, you got a lot of stuff to clear up. Uh, you have a very talented team, coach change, Sweeney in, uh, Jamal Mosley out, and can he get the secret sauce going to the Orlando Magic? They have a lot of talent. We just gotta see them put it together. That leads us to then the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks as well. When it comes to Atlanta, a lot of talent on this team. Very excited about what they're going to be, and they are looking to D some people up. And we'll get into all of that, but you know who stirs the drink in Atlanta right now. That is Jalen Johnson, who is damn near a triple-double on his own. So, buckle up. We will be talking about that, and then we kind of say the best for last. Giannis Antecumpo has moved on to Miami. What does that team look like? How many victories will they get? Are they going to be a shoe-in for the playoffs? Are they going to be a shoe-in for the play-in again? I will give you the answers, and we will rock like that. You know what I'm saying? So, with all that being said, you know what we gotta do. We gotta also get into some other things. We gotta talk about um these win totals. Who is going to be on the top of the block? Who is going to be the team that stands above everybody else at the end of the day? Because right now, there's a lot of questions, and hopefully, we'll have all of the answers for you. So let's get into it. You know where y'all rocking with is FRPC, which is Front Runner Podcast Collective, and let's go. You know what we're talking about. It's the Southeastern Division. So we craked open the film rooms, we got observations, we're gonna have grown conversations about the players, the coaches, and the front offices that are actually moving in the southeast. You know what we're talking about, the people who wrote the blank checks, what's the scuttle bud in the locker room, and who's putting the PR spin on everything. But we ain't giving you nothing but we're not giving you fluff. No, no, it's gonna be the straight dookie, you know what that means, and we're bringing the jokes, we're gonna bring the advanced math and also the exact barbershop ammo that you need to go straight into your G your group chat and completely nuke the argument. So if you're an NBA sicko like myself, who wants more than the highlight talk, and you want a little more context, you want some more some more numbers to kind of solidify your your take or your thought. You want a point of view, this is the spot for you. We are FRPC, and let's go. Alright, so got a lot to talk about. We're gonna be moving fast, and we're gonna be getting into it. We

Wizards Reset With Trey And AD

are going to start with the Washington Wizards. I'm excited to talk about them. Listen, DC, above all, you know what I'm saying? I'm here with you for the first time in a while. The Washington Wizards have a lot to look forward to, and it started last year, it started at the trade deadline when they got Trey Young and they also got Anthony Davis, and we'll be discussing them a little a little bit. So, Anthony Davis, you know what he brings. He brings a lot of talent, but he also brings a lot of days off, and then we got Trey Young, but we did not bury the lead, the Washington Wizards got the number one draft pick last this last draft, and that's AJ DeBanster. Now, our guys at DraftKings have them at 35.5 wins. MGM Bet has them at 34. We're gonna go with DraftKings 35.5, and we're gonna talk about their over-under and how that looks. So as we go along, we'll let you know where they stand. Now, talk to a couple people in the league. One rival team exec said he studied this roster, and they paid for talent, doesn't mean they paid for availability. Little you know, kind of cute line there, but he's not wrong. Because here's the thing you got a lot of dudes, but you're paying uh Anthony Davis right now 50 point 58.5. Trey Young just got a brand new contract, he's getting paid 49.5, so they're 107.9 million dollars of the cap all to themselves. Now, great that the rest of the team is very young, starting with the number one overall draft pick, AJ DeBanksta. He's also coming in with our guy Alex Sarr, who was also in that mix as far as sound, he was the number two overall draft pick a couple years ago, and we'll be talking about him. They have an array of talent. Uh, you know, is Bilal Kulubale gonna come around? What about our guy Trey Johnson? They drafted last year, they made a trade and got DeAndre Ayton. So, and then also the the low-key guy that I love to talk about is Keyshawn George. Keyshawn, yo, man, he is he's a brilliant basketball player. So I am excited to talk about the wealth, the talent that is coming on this team. It's very, very young. It has a couple vets to kind of steady the ship. But will those vets be available? One in particular. P teams that evaluate this team, they you know, they're just looking around. They say, Hey, you got Trey Young, and offense is real, but defensively wise, he's a he's a door that you can just go right through. You know saying turnstile for real. Now, last year he played 15 games for the year he had 17.9 points, eight assists on 61.2% true shooting percentage, which is great. His uh free throw rate was fit was uh 0.548, which is pretty good. Now, in his time at Washington, he only played five games, it was a little taste, 15.2 points a game, 6.2 sit assists. Now his true shooting percentage shot up to 72.3 percent, which is great, and his three-point shooting was at a almost alarming 43%. If you get that kind of production out of Trey Young this year, it's gonna be a good good season, and he's capable, he's he's very capable. Now, as far as what he does and what he brings, when you have Anthony Davis and you have guys like Alex Sarr and all the other athletes on your team, you're looking at a situation where, as far as the lob threat is concerned, you're gonna be ready to go. Trey Young is one of the best lob throwers in the NBA, and he will have a plethora of guys that he can go ahead and throw lobs to. Not even just the bigs, the wings out here, AJ De Banster. Are you kidding me? A pick and roll with AJ DeBanster and Trey Young. What's that gonna look like? How scary is that? Well,

Trey Young Works And Breaks Things

we can't talk about the cream being sweet without talking about the rocky road that is also lies in front of us. Trey Young is small, there's no way around that. One of the ways to help Trey Young is to have a bunch of long wings that get after it defensively, and you know, will he be a guy who will be able to get off the ball? Those are the two things that we always talked about when he was in Atlanta. So I don't want to sound like a broken record, so I'll just hit you with some some numbers. Defense is always going to be the problem. Defensive box plus minus over the last three years, negative 2.3, negative 2.7, and negative 1.4. But remember that last one, he only played in very minimal games last year. So the offense is going to be real, he's going to draw fouls, defensive ground cover is a door, is a door trait. He fails at the door, the rest of the lineup has to hide him, and that came from a scout. Two things can be true. The offense can be absolutely spectacular, and the defense you're just gonna shake your head and go, Oh my god, what are we doing? Because here is the other thing with it. This is the quiet part that people don't want to say out loud. Yeah, regular season, great, lobs, points, shooting from the logo, all of that, great. Now, I'm not saying they're going to the playoffs this year, but you know what happens in the playoffs. We hunt mismatches in the playoffs, and Trey Young is like a little like baby deer that's just waiting to get eaten. Pause on that, you know saying, but you know what I'm talking about.

Anthony Davis The Swing Factor

Let's get to the other guy that it brought in, Anthony Davis. He's really the swing factor here. Everything on this roster is easier with one man on the floor, and that's Anthony Davis. Now he is in his age 33 season. The games played in the last two seasons is atrocious. He's played 71 games over the last two years. 51 and then 20 last year. He only played 20 games for the Dallas Mavericks last year. He did not play any games for the Washington Wizards. People can say whatever they want. Um, we have had uh crazy nicknames thrown out at this guy, street clothes, all kinds of stuff. So he is going to have to be on the court for this team to be successful. Now he shot uh just a little bit over 50% from the field last year. He shot uh 72.8 from the free throw line, and he still is not hitting the three at the level he did when they won the championship for the Los Angeles Lakers in the bubble. He's only shooting 27% from three. Now, two years earlier, when he was healthy and played in 76 games, this is the numbers. 24.7 points a game, 12.6 rebounds, and he was basically a uh fourth in defense defensive player of the year, and he was on the all-defensive team. So Anthony Davis still hasn't in him to play exemplary stellar basketball. It is, are you going to be available? Are you going he is yet to suit up for Washington? Remember, he was traded during the trade deadline, did not shoot up, did not suit up at all. So now, you know, he's had many lower limb surgeries, he's had lower limb injuries that have dogged him over the last let's say five to six years. And as a Lakers fan, knowing that I had Anthony Davis on the team, every time that dude was about to fall or fallen down, I just held my breath. I was like, Oh my god, is he gonna is he gonna get up? Is he gonna be okay? He had a lingering calf issue with the Lakers that you know never seemed to get better, and he when he fell down, you just held your breath. You just like oh did the Achilles pop? What happened? Then he get up, he'd run down the court, but for like five seconds you were holding your breath. A source familiar with the the this team says, if he plays sixty games, the defense that he can anger, and the offense that he can bring, the vertical law threat that he can be, he is going to be very, very effective for them. But he has to play more than sixty games. So if this is what a scout is saying for the Washington Wizards to be uh have a significant jump in wins from last year, I buy it. I buy it a lot. Now

Alex Sarr Growth And The Shot

let's get into a guy who we expect a lot uh out of this year. He made a leap last year, and let's see if he can make another leap this year, and that's Alex Sarr, who's ending uh coming into his third season. He took for fewer threes last year and he got better. Is that the whole story? Well, you know, you guys be the you guys be the judge. So from year one to year two, these are the numbers. His PER, which I absolutely can't stand this number, but it's here, and I just want to show you the drastic uh improvement. 12.9 to 19.4. His true shooting percentage went from uh 48.2 to 54.4, his box plus minus went from a negative 3.3 to a to a positive point seven, which you know you sit there and go, that's not great, but you know, he went came from three negative 3.3, his coins per game, 13 points his rookie year, 16.3 his second year, his blocks 1.1 and a half a game to two. His shot die got smarter, his three-point rate went from uh 412 to 0.229, his two-point percentage went from 52.6. Love it. The rebounding is real with this kid, he had a 20.9 defensive rebound percentage and a total of 14.6 total rebound percentage, and his block uh block percentage was 6.4. So he is legitimately a guy who is going to be active on the glass and also active around the rim when it comes to defensive pressure that he puts on suspecting dudes coming down the lane. Now he only played 48 games, but I'll tell you that um not like this year, but last year it was it was actually okay for him not to play, let's just put it that way. The improvement is real, uh, the kind that sticks because it came from shot selection. It wasn't a hot streak. The open question is the three-point shot. Now, he shot 33.3% on just 3.1 attempts last year. Is there a way for him to bump now? Is there a way for him to bump it up and continue to improve the three-point shot? I actually think there is because the one thing that we also have to understand is that Alex Sarr came into the league at 19 and he was skinny and he wasn't as strong. What is he gonna do over the next two or three years? Those legs are going to get stronger, they're gonna get thicker, and then you're gonna be able to shoot your jump shot with relatively ease instead of like launching it up there. I believe that Alexar will gain some percentages on his three-point shot. I don't think the shot is absolutely broken or anything like that. I just think that he has the capability of doing some uh pretty good things when it comes to that. So we'll we'll see how it all works out with him.

AJ DeBancster Scoring Vs Role

Let's move on to what you guys came to talk about, the main event, and that is the number one overall draft pick, and that's AJ DeBonster. I have a couple questions, and I don't want to be Debbie Downer here, but the kid can score. The question is everything else, and here's the other thing with everybody who is on this squad, right? Now, if you're telling me the mandate is coming from the front office and also the coach Brian Keith, who we will get to a little bit later, then great. But if you're telling me that Trey Young and Anthony Davis and other players are going to kind of acquiesce to AJ DePosta, I find that hard to believe. But let's let's crack over the numbers and show you how spectacular this kid was in his one season of college basketball. He he shot 51% from the field, he only shot 33% from three, uh, he shot 148 of them and hitting uh 49. Now he shot 77.4 percent from the free throw line. You would hope a little bit better. But here's the most important thing in college, he averaged 8.5 attempts a game. That's crazy work. He also had eight games of 30 plus, two games of 40, and he broke uh Kevin Durant's Big 12 tournament freshman record by dropping 40. Kid is legit score. Now, a couple things that he needs to work on. He is a little loose with the basketball, okay. 3.1 turnovers a game in his only season at BYU. He averaged 3.7 assists, so he was a willing passer. He just wasn't making uh excellent reads. Because here's the thing. When he was at high school, it was about him. He was getting buckets. And that's what he was doing at BYU as well. I'm going to get buckets. Because that's what I do. His rounding out his game was basically him working on it. So the 3.1 turnovers, I'm kind of going like, well, I'm not too worried about it because it's him going, hey, when I get to the next level, I'm not going to be able to take all the shots I want. I'm going to have to be a little more selective, and I need to get better with my angles, my vision, and what kind of passes I need to throw to my teammates. So for him to be able to kind of understand that at the college level for the one season and then come out and you know have 3.7 assists. I don't have a lot of questions when it comes to that. Now, in the summer league, he gave us a test. He gave us a taste. 27 points, tying a record for a number one overall pick. Now he's 19. And the rookie of the year race is going to be awesome. We got a lot of star power out here. I talked about Caleb Williams, uh Caleb Wilson last uh podcast. So if you have not heard the Central Division podcast, go back and listen to it. It's the last podcast before this one. I highly recommend it. We talk about the win totals and what have you. But including Caleb Wilson, you got Derek Peterson, you got Cam Boozer, and you got also AJ DeBronstein. But here's the problem. I don't know if AJ is going to win the rookie of the year, and it doesn't have anything to do whether he's talented enough or whatever. I just don't know if he's going to get the opportunities when you got Trey Young on the squad, Anthony Davis, and you got Alex Sr. also coming into his own. Now they make a fucking big front line. I mean, this front line is huge. If AJ DeBanster and Alexar and Anthony Davis are on the court together, AJ DeBonster is literally 6'10. And then you got Alex Saur, who is a seven-footer legitimately, and even though Anthony Davis wants to call himself 6'10, that dude is also seven feet tall. So a lot of length on that front court, kind of the thing to kind of hide Trey Young when we talked about his uh lackluster defense, but you know, it all has to come together. The scouts said basically his free throw um attempts are the best of his shot selection. Now they wonder if it's gonna hold up in the pro game. I think it will absolutely do this. He did it in international play a couple years back when I saw him in the uh under 19 like World Championships. He did it in college. I just think this is he knows how to get fouled, he knows how to go to the basket and go to get to the free throw line. I just think he can get there. Now, the defensive ground cover is open for question. You know, here's the thing when you have a true scorer like him, it's one of those deals. Is it gonna is the defense ever gonna come around? Well, you hope so. You just hope for his case. Now, if you want to talk about how hyped everybody is about this team, let's look no further than Brian Keith's comments during uh Media Day. Says, I'm not going to put a limit on where we go. He's just happy that he's gonna be able to coach competitive basketball. And he's right, he has no idea where they can go because he doesn't know who's gonna be on the court and who's not gonna be on the court. Is Anthony Davis gonna play 65 plus games? Is Trey Young gonna not shoot four uh logo threes a game? Are they gonna share the sugar with the number one overall draft pick and also the up-and-coming star in Alex Sarr? There's a lot to work out in Washington, and this is one of the reasons why you know we do these win total over-unders because there's there's a lot of questions that we gotta ask. Anthony Davis on staying healthy. He says, My job is is is to not break. I'm also old. So, translation, guess what? Dude, I'm probably gonna miss some games. I'm probably gonna miss some games.

Wizards Depth Usage And Spacing

Now let's talk about the supporting cast a little bit. We we talked a little bit about Keyshawn George, but the numbers were fantastic. 14.8 points a game on 38.1 three-point shooting on five and a half attempts a game. He also had an uh assist percentage of 22.4, which as a wing, that's amazing. That's amazing. He went from 13.3 to 22.4 in two years. Now the rookie out of Texas kind of struggled a little bit, but then it caught on towards the end. He averaged 12.2 points a game, and we're talking about Trey Johnson. I'm sorry. So the rookie last year, Trey Johnson, 12.2 points a game. He shot a little below league average, which was 35.8 from the land of three. But here's the thing that you you put your hat on. This is why I never think for one minute will Trey Johnson ever be nothing but a lethal weapon from downtown. This dude shot 87.4% from the free throw line. Now, was the defense non-existent? Yeah, you you were you are absolutely right. Was his box plus or minus terrible? Yes, it was, but he was playing on a team that won 17 games, so I don't really care. I really don't. Now, the Washington Wizards, because now they are starting to be serious about winning games and putting a competitive product on the on the uh court, they traded for Trey Man who gives buckets, they traded away Cam Whitmore who could not find a role on the Wizards. And he's on Denver now, and I hope that because I think Cam Whitmore is extremely talented. Uh, this might be one of my whiffs. I've had some I have have have had a lot of makes, you know, see Desmond Dane, seeing Con Kanipple, or what have you, but I was sure that Cam Whitmore was going to be able to carve out a solid career in the NBA, and it's it's not happening. And for some reason, it comes down to finding a role, understanding that you're not gonna get all the shots that you know you're supposed you think you're supposed to get. And it literally comes down to that. Another guy that I'm very interested in is uh uh Chris Middleton. Chris Middleton left Washington but also came back um during free agency. So do I expect a lot out of Chris Middleton? No. But I do expect the veteran leadership that he can provide where Trey Young is a vet, don't get me wrong, but if I wanted a steady vet, this is the guy I'm looking at. Chris Middleton can still ball, but at 35, we ain't asking you to ball a lot, my guy. We are asking you to talk to the youngins, keep them in line, let them know what it is to be a pro in this league, and then come in and hit the occasional three and be six foot six and and do your thing. Now, I am going to also thank the Washington Wizards for being uh just an upright citizen and taking DeAndre Aiden off our hands. I appreciate you for that because this dude man, it was hard dealing with this cat. It was hard dealing with this cat. But here's the thing: what I want to say is this is that I am uh he is a good backup for what they have. Now, I will get to the keys of why Washington should or should not be winning more than 35 games or 35 and a half games. Is Anthony Davis gonna play enough games? Is Trey Young's shooting for s uh efficiency gonna hold up? We know he can pass, we know he can shoot the three, but will he be more selective with his shots? Also, will you get off ball and not just stand out way out at like the uh like the 35-foot area of the court? Does Shar's development continue to take a leap? And does DeBancer get the developmental work uh runway that he actually deserves as an absolute just killer on the offensive end? Washington is is sneaky deep. We talked about Keyshawn George, Keyshawn is probably not gonna start for this team, you know what I'm saying? Unless he's starting at the two guard. I don't know. Because the front line looks like it's gonna be Davis, it's gonna be Saar, and it's gonna be Da Bosta, and we hope that that's what it's gonna look like. So does Keyshawn John uh does Keyshawn George come off the bench and trade Johnson is going to be the starter at the two-guard position? We will have to see once the season starts. I can't wait. Why they wouldn't hit it, obviously the same thing that we just talked about in reverse. Is Trey Young going to shoot ridiculous shots? Is Anthony Davis gonna fall over and never give back up? And then we're just left with a bunch of youngins out there just running around. Because that's the problem. If you allow the youngsters to run around without any direction, so to speak, could be a problem. Perimeter defense needs to be uh adhered to. Now you're not gonna get it from Trey Young, but you got a lot of long active wings, they're gonna have to keep their defense together. De Bonster is gonna be one of them, and then we also have the the usage collisions that I thought about. There's only one basketball, and people say, Well, you can't say that that's so old school thinking. But here's the thing you got five players who want the ball, and nobody is a clear connector, except for Trey Young, and if he decides that I want to take 25 shots a game, that's gonna be a problem because you got a lot of miles to feed. Are the wizards gonna be able to space the floor as well as they need to with the monster shots still needing work? And obviously, um Davis doesn't shoot the three. Will our guy Star continue to make that leap up? Will he keep his attempts the way they were, or can he kind of jump up to five again? So I will put it this way the what the fans should be looking for is this how eager is Trey to get the young man from BYU acclimated? Is he going to defer a little bit? Because for the Wizards to go where they want to go, DeBonston needs to be developed. I know the front office knows that. I hope they are able to relay that message to Brian Keith. Now, Brian Keith has lost a lot of games in Washington, and I wonder if they get off to a slow start, will he feel the pressure and then put more on his veterans to get the productivity up and kind of push DeBronster to the side? Scary thoughts, I know. Scary thoughts, because we do not want that. We want DeBonster to have a wide berth as far as develop developmental uh pathway. We want Trey Young to shoot the ball maybe about 16 times a game. We're gonna we're gonna want Anthony Davis to play, but we're also gonna want him to take a couple less shots a game and give our guy DeBonster enough. It's a lot, it's a lot to take in. It's a lot to take in.

Wizards Pick And Win Total Call

So, where do I see the Washington Wizards being? I think they're gonna end up being like 33 and 49. It's a big jump up. It's a 16-game turnaround. But for them to win 36 games and beat their over-under by you know, that's a 19 uh game jump. I th I think you will still be happy or still be pleased if you're a Washington Wizard fan and your team won 33 games this next year. You still got a lot of young talent that's developing, you have a lot of young talent that's learning how to play defense. Uh the Wonsa hasn't played one lick of basketball in the NBA yet, so it's great to see this group of young talent come together. I just hope they are not overshadowed by the vets on this team looking for that that hold on to that one last piece of glory to make their legacy or what have you. So we'll see how it all goes.

Hornets After The LaMelo Trade

Now, we move on to Charlotte. The Hornets made a big trade in the offseason, they traded LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves, they got back Nas Reed and a couple other pieces, but Nas Reed was the centerpiece of that deal. Now, their over-under is when it comes to uh Graft Kings, it was 38.5 over under. Far cry from what they did last year, right? But let's get into it, let's talk about what's going on. Ball was traded, Miles Bridges was traded, and the books only shaved off four and a half wins. Either Vegas is asleep or the Hornets just won the offseason. I'm telling you right now, I think there are gonna be some growing pains. But let's get into it. Last year they were 44 and 38, they were ninth in the East, they beat the Miami Heat in the play-in for their first postseason win since 2016. They still missed the playoffs, though, because they weren't able to finish the job with the other play-in game and what have you. But it was a successful year for the Charlotte Hornets and Coach Charles Lee, who really is starting to put his stamp and his mark on this team. Now, Rival Executive said uh the price for the departures, yeah, it might be you know good in the long run, but it might not be good for this year. I kind of I want to lean towards that, but let's make the case either way. June 25th, Lamella Blah, Josh Green, and Isaiah Evans go and the number 33 overall pick go out to Minnesota. Nas Reed comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Moe Gee also in a 30 uh 2033 first round draft pick also comes over to the Charlotte Hornets. Now, Miles Bridges also left, he went to Phoenix for Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neill. You lose you lose some points here. But here's the thing you take a step back to take a step forward. I am excited for LaMelo Ball to be in Minnesota, but I think there were people in that organization who were like we we kind of need to do better at point. We need the shot selection to be better, we need I hate to say this because I think he's very talented, I think he's a really good player, but sometimes I Lomelo gives the gives the um perception of now that he's gone out of Charlotte, that they needed an an adult in the room. You know, I'm not trying to be harsh, or just trying to be real with you about what they saw. And here's the other thing. I know as people who watch Charlotte on a daily basis, y'all saw it too. There was a lot of times during the fourth quarter where the game was in the balance, Lamelo wasn't in the game. There'd be long stretches of time in the fourth quarter that Lomelo was not in that game. Khan Knipple was on the court, Brandon Miller was on that court, uh Kobe White was in that court, but it was not Lamelo ball. So we can sit here and talk about how, yes, will you miss Lamello's 22, 23 points a game? Yes, you will. Will you miss the assists that he brought because they were spectacular? Yes, you will. But will you miss the shot selection? Probably not. Will you miss the kind of blasé faire towards defense? Probably not. But we will see. So here's

Brandon Miller As The Franchise

the deal. Let's get into what they do have. Brandon Miller right now, he's the franchise guy. Uh 65 games last year, 20.2 points a game, 4.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and a steal, and damn near a block a game. So overall, great when it comes to that. Now the shooting numbers uh leave a little bit to be desired, I think, for somebody as athletic and as big as uh Brandon Miller is his uh overall shooting, which was 43.5%, that needs to be a little bit better. But the three-point shooting was great. 38.3 on 8.2 attempts, and then he shot 89.2% from the free throw line, and he had a true shooting percentage of 57.4% on usage, which is uh about 28.1. Um, that's pretty good. I like that. Uh, all of that is very uh you're starting to get on the budgeting of you know star status when you get to those numbers. Now the three-year climb has also been impressive. He's gone from true shooting percentage first year 55.2, second year 54 even, and last year 57.4, box plus minus negative 0.26. His first year, he was straight up even his second year 0.0, and his third year was a positive 1.6. His win shares kind of kind of gone up and down, but he made a real huge spike last year. So win shares 0.8 first year, 0.4, second year. 4.5.

Nas Reed Fit And Starter Questions

Nas Reed is coming to the Charlotte Hornets. And what you're getting is efficiency is real. The free throw line is the tail. He's 20, he's about 28% usage player with 3.3 assists average. He's not a creator. He's a bucket getter. That is what he is. And he's gonna stay humble. You know what I'm saying? He's gonna be out here and do his thing and then provide leadership. He played with Anthony Edwards, he played with a uh a Randux superstar there. He is going to love it in Charlotte. Because I don't know if Brandon Miller has ever said a word in Charlotte. Has he ever said anything? I don't know. Brandon Miller's free throw percentage is gone up and up and up. First year 82.7%. Second year 86.1%, and last year he was damn near deadeye at 89.2. This dude is going to be awesome.

Con Knipple Hype And Hamstring Watch

It's just gonna be awesome. Now let's get to our guy Khan Knipple. Khan Knipple, he shocked the world last year. He didn't shock me. I thought this dude was gonna be awesome. But 81 games, 18.5 uh coins a game, 5.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists. He shot the ball overall at 47.5, which as a rookie, you can't you can't ask for better than that. He shot 42.5% from three on damn near eight attempts. He also shot 86.3% from the free throw line with a gaudy 63.3% true shooting percentage. Are you kidding me? This dude hit 273 threes his rookie year to lead the NBA. Not just rookies, the entire NBA. Was he first team all rookie? You bet your ass he was. Was he second in rookie of the year voting? He was my rookie of the year. I love Cooper Flag. Make hey, listen. The great white basketball player is back, baby. We got Con Kanipple, and we also got Cooper Flag. Man, we gonna have a bunch of dudes out here playing some basketball. It's gonna be great. Now his bet his best advanced line was the 8.0 win shares that he had. You know what I'm saying? He had a plus box point box plus minus of 2.8. Are you kidding me? Oh, by the way, on 22.3% usage percentage. Now the only bummer is that our guy got hurt a little bit earlier in the uh before the preseason. He has a left hamstring pull. Uh he's gonna be re-evaluated the first week of the season. So we'll see how that looks. It doesn't look like he will be available for the opener, which is a bummer. So maybe by the second or third week, our guy Khan Knipple will hit the court. But we are looking forward to it. We are looking forward to it. Because he is he was all that was promised, damn it. All that was promised. I love I love I love Meeson Khan Kanipple. And this is the thing. You'll take the step back, yeah, right, because you know, you need a point guard. Kobe White will kind of man the ship this year, don't get me wrong. I love it. He is going to be box office, 17.5 points a game, 3.4 rebounds, four assists, almost 60% true shooting percentage with a usage rate, which was 28.8. He played uh 50 games overall. He because he had a backup role, he only averaged like 19.3 minutes a game in Charlotte, 15.6 points a game, and he shot 39.1% from three. So I am looking forward to seeing what they do. What he's what Kobe White is replacing is the 7.1 assists that ball had last year. It's gonna be point guard by committee in Charlotte for sure. And this is why I think they'll take the step back. Now is Nas Reed gonna start as he's gonna or is he gonna be a six man? He's definitely gonna start. I don't think you trade for him and then expect him to come off the bench. I think you're gonna want that production to even grow, and I think because of your lack of big right now, because the rookie Han Steinback is going to be as far as a rebounder, gonna be great. Block shots is where I worry. How does it work? But they got some studs coming. I like what they're doing. I really do. Jeff Peterson is doing a fantastic job down there in Charlotte. I I love it. Christian Anderson Jr., he is he's not big, but he can get buckets. 18 and a half points a game and 7.4 assists to lead the Big 12, which is an excellent conference. It's a basketball powerhouse if you don't watch a lot of college basketball. So I expect great things coming out of Charlotte. They're just young, it's gonna take a second. You know what I'm saying? So you might have a couple struggles. Don't get disconcerned in Charlotte. I understand last year you made the plan. You expect to kind of make a leap this year, you're probably not going to do it. But don't worry. You're gonna be back. It's gonna take some time. Not a lot of time, but it's gonna take some time. I love that Steinbach is just a rebounder. And my whole thing is that if you rebound in college, you're gonna rebound in the NBA.

Charlotte Win Total And Development Goals

He averaged 18.5 points a game and damn near 12 rebounds a game to lead the NCAA last season. Uh he also averaged 1.6 assists and 1.2 blocks. He shot the ball pretty well from three, 34%. Now, obviously the three-point shot is different in college than it is in the NBA, but we shall see. So the note to keep them above their goal of what was it, 39 and a half, is close games. Are they gonna regress to the norm? The coin differentials was 53 in three 53 wins. The record said was 44. We're gonna have to learn. We gotta see if they're gonna be able to do that with the young team. How how long will it take for Kanipple to get back? Because here's the thing with the hamstring, you want to make sure that thing is completely healed. You want to make sure that thing is ready to go. But as soon as he's ready to go, the green light is open because again, 63.3% true shooting and 273 threes in his first year. I can't wait to see what this kid does for Encore. Can Brandon Miller stay on the court? First year 74 games, second year 27, last year 65. I would hope that that number goes a little bit further up. I hope he would get to a point where he's starting average anywhere between 72 to 75 games a year. That's my hope. And now, if they don't make it, if they don't make the uh 39 and a half wins, the reason why is that it took a lot longer for Con Knipple to get healthy with that hamstring. The playmaker role that Kobe White is taking over, obviously he would not do as good a job as Lamello Ball, and we will see how that works. Nas Reed, as a starter, we got questions. He's made three starts over last year, and listen, he averaged 27.5 minutes a game, but it's a difference coming off the bench than coming in and being a starter. You know, you are probably on the whiteboard a little bit higher than you were you were when you were on the bench coming in, but now age on the wings, Grayson Allen is 30, Royce O'Neill is 33, Dennis Schroeder's 33. They got a lot of experience, but is it good enough to get them where they need to go? What Hornets fans should be watching out for, your main concern this year is to see the continued development of Brandon Miller, Khan Kenical, and then the two rookies, Hans Steinbach and Christian Anderson Jr. That is what you should be paying attention to. Now, do you want some fun games? Here, do I do I think for one second you guys are gonna drop back and only win like 20 games? No. But we'll get to what I think you're at you guys are actually gonna hit. Will Nas Riggy continue to put up the numbers that he was putting up in Minnesota in a starting role? We'll see. These are all questions that gotta be answered. I'm looking for the Charlotte Hornets to be a little light under that 39 and a half. I'm looking for them to be, let's say, 38 and 44, so slightly under. I just think it matters having a guy like Lomelo, even though I thought that sometimes he showed some immaturity on the court. I think Charles Lee really managed that situation well last year. Uh, I again I expect and I think there is a bright future in Charlotte. I do not think of this team like okay, they had the little year where they got into the plan and now they're gonna kind of fall back to the pack. No, I think this is like a dip to the ascent uh to the extension. So you dip this year, and then you start going up from there. Because here's the other thing another draft pick, we'll see. We'll see what you get.

Magic Talent And A New Coach

So we're gonna move on to the Orlando Magic, and here's a bewildering team, you know what I'm saying? Like all the talent in the world, but still haven't been able to put it together. They got a new coach. He he's got the same problem. So the Magic led Detroit three games to one and then blew a 24-point lead at home in game six and then lost game seven. Their fix was to get a brand new coach and a 35-year-old center. We'll see how it works. Orlando was 45-37, which was eighth in the East. They lost in the first round to the Detroit Pistons, three games to four. The one seed, obviously the Pistons. Yeah, well, can't we talked about uh our guy Jalen Dorn in the last pod. Go back and and and listen to that pod, it's great. Um we had a lot of information on him. Now, with that being said, let's get into our our people in Orlando. They're gonna play the Atlanta Hawks first game of the season, and then the Sweeney era is going to begin officially. Jamal Mosley was fired May 4th, and the defense that he brought to this team, no doubt, the offense sucked. They couldn't get it get outside that they couldn't get out their own way. So Sean Sweeney comes from San Antonio. This is a good hire. Now, where he helped good one of the third-ranked off defenses in all the land, and he worked with Wingby, he's worked with Giannis, and he's worked with Luca. Like in Dallas. Okay, so this is Dallas Luca. People can say what they want about Luca's defense, it's not great, but you know who was on his ass the whole time? Sean Sweeney. What's the situation in Orlando? It's the same thing. Paulo Gwincarrol, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bank. All I know is that what they're gonna have to do is get these guys to be on the same page. Paulo Gwincarrol, as far as a player, a man in this league, he's still not the efficiency darling that the analytics community wants. But he's a man you need. 72 games last year, 22.2 points a game, eight and a half rebounds, 5.2 assists. He averaged basically almost a steal a game and 0.0 uh 0.6 blocks per game over 35 minutes. Now, he shot 46% from the field, which should be better. He only shot 30 30 and a half percent from three on 3.8 attempts, and he only shot 77.5% from the free throw line. So his true shooting percentage was 56.6, and his free throw rate was fifty-one point two percent. Can he run offense for you? Yes. Can he needs to shoot it better? Point blank, simple. He is a career 31.7% from three and 74.3% from the free throw line. For a guy who's averaging 20 points a game a year, it's gotta be better, it's gotta be better. Production, shot selection has to be better. He has to find what it is that he's good at and then just do it because this is ridiculous now. And for him to be really completely unlocked, he's gotta shoot the three or just abandon it altogether and then allow somebody else to take that role. Not helping him, but helping him is Franz Wagner. Now, Franz got hurt last year, he only played in 34 games in the regular season. He shot the ball a little bit better from three, but still not good enough. 34.5%. Now, his free throw percentage is is promising. 82.3%. So his uh true shooting percentage was just a tad under 59%, so it was 58.8.

Paolo Franz Shooting Problems

He had a box plus minus of positive 2.5, but they were a shell of themselves without Wagner, and I don't know if he was gonna shoot the ball any better than the 34.5%, but he was plagued with ankle and calf issues all last year, and a right calf issue in the playoffs that kept him out of game five and seven. So the shooting percentage for career from three is 32.4%, but from the line it's 85, it's 85%. I will say this. He is a shot of being a good three-point shooter, and I hope that that's what is gonna come along. He gives them real production, he also gives them um just a real steadying presence for some reason on the court, and he just whatever he does, he makes Paulo Bancaro better. And I thought it'd be the other way around, to be completely honest with you. But this is what we're looking at. Now, if we're gonna talk about shot selection and what have you, Desmond Bain, we need to talk about.

Desmond Bane Spacing And Volume

He played in 82 games last year, uh, 20 points a game, four rebounds, four point one assists. He averages still in a little bit under 34 minutes. Desmond Bane was Desmond Bain last year. It was 48.4% from the field, uh 39% from three, and a 90.8% from the free throw line, true shooting percentage above 60, it was 60.7, but it wasn't Desmond Bain, because Desmond Bain usually shoots about 42% from three. And I don't know if it was just new squad, whatever, but he only shot 5.2 threes a game last year, which was the lowest since his rookie year. His career three-point shooting average was 40.7% on six point one attempts a game. So three-point shot was not as good. He shot less of them, which was weird, and he he he shot eight point six perhaps of three in the twenty twenty-three-2024 season.

Suggs Availability And Anthony Black

Now, another guy who needs to stay healthy is Jalen Suggs. Jalen Suggs is an absolute demon on defense, and somehow he's like the low-key leader of that squad, and when he's not playing, it just shows up. They listen discombobulated as a group without um my guy Jalen Suggs, and also you need to be on the court because you need to get your three-point stroke down, my guy. Now, here's the best part about the Orlando Magic. They have an expiration date because you know what's coming for 'em. It's that it's that damn salary cap. Their payroll is 220.8 million. You got Wagner, Bancaro, Bain, and Suggs that take up $155.1 million dollars of the salary cap, which is is 70%. So guess what? If they don't figure it out this year, then they're gonna need to get some flexibility back and also reacquire some of the draft picks that they lost in the Desmond Bain trade. Because remember, Orlando traded Memphis for first round picks. Now the the thought was that they were gonna be drafting like 28th, 29th, 27th overall. But I that obviously wasn't the case. So they're gonna need to get some shit done in quick and in a hurry. Who's gonna step up in the backcourt? We talked about Jalen Suggs, we talked about what he is getting as far as money is concerned, which is 32.4 million. You gotta play more, Jalen. 57 games is not good enough. You gotta get up into that 68 to 72 range. The 13.8 points a game, the 5.5 assists is awesome, the dare near two steals a game is great, but you need to be on the court to shoot more threes, hit more threes, and be in that stabilizer stabilizer influence. That you need to be because the other guy that they're still looking for is Anthony Black. Now, people will say that Anthony Black has been held back a little bit. But listen, he made 40 starts last year. He he scored 15 points a game, almost four rerounds a game, and 3.7 assists, and one and a half steals a game. Now the three-point shot is still not where it kind of needs to be. It's a little bit below league average at 33.3%. Need to get that up. But he's a 6'6, 6'7 wing who just absolutely hunts the passing lanes, gets a bunch of deflections, and wants to play defense. So if he can shoot the ball a little bit better, he can stay on the court. He can stay on the court. They brought back uh Vucevic from Chicago, and I don't know if he's gonna start or he's gonna come off the bench. I would think that he would come off the bench and uh back up Wendell Carter Jr. Now Vusevich last year was uh 15.1 points a game, eight and a half rebounds, 3.3 assists. He shot the ball basically almost at 50%, 49.3, and he shot the three ball very well at 36.9%. So that's awesome, right? Yes. Is that what you want out of your backup big? Yes. Do you want more from Wendell Carter Jr. You goddamn right? You're damn right we do. The 11.8 points a game is not that big of a deal, the 7.4 rebounds is not that big of a deal. It's the 51% field goal percentage that's a big deal. And listen, are you a three-point shooter or not? Because the 32% on the three attempts that you're taking, I'd rather you just go ahead and shoot the ball from the inside, my guy. You're a good rebounder, you're you know, we love it, but we need more. We need more from you. Now, maybe with Vusevich backing him up, takes a little bit more pressure off him, frees his mind a little bit, and therefore maybe we see him flourish this year, but the time is ticking. The time is ticking. Now, a bright spot for the Orlando Magic is Tristian DeSilva. He played in 77 games last year, he made 34 stars. It's not the points and stuff, and I'll get to that in a second. It's just like when he played, he just there was a difference. He just made things happen on the defensive end. I'm not saying he's the greatest defender of all times, but he just seemed to be able to hold his own. He averaged almost damn near 10 points a game, three and 3.7 rebounds. She shot the ball at a 45% clip, shot the three ball extremely well for somebody, you know, who hasn't been in the league long 37.4%. I just like this kid. I like this kid a lot. I don't know what it is about him, but he's able to get it done. Now, what is the keys for the magic to do their thing?

Orlando Cap Pressure And The Under

Sean Sweeney needs to do whatever voodoo magic, whatever uh, whatever witchcraft that he needs to do to figure out what the hell is going on with Wagner and Paolo Gancaro. One of those guys gotta shoot over 36%. One of them gotta do it. Or we are going to continue the the the the rival teams are gonna continue to just stand in the paint. Just stand there and just allow you to shoot threes and brick them. Desmond Gaines needs to get back to his, you know, at least like averaging seven attempts a game and shooting above forty percent from three. He needed to get back to who who he was, and we need Jalen Suggs to stay on the court. Now, the way they don't get it is they don't figure none of these things out. Wagner or Ben Carroll misses games again, Suggs misses chunks of games again, nobody shooting over 36% again, and Sean Sweeney is just standing there scratching his head. Does Vucevic fall off the cliff? Who knows? What fans should be looking for early to see if this is going to be uh a magic season, or is it gonna be another season to forget? Does Bain shoot the three ball and provide the spacing that we thought that he was gonna provide? Is Jalen Suggs playing games or is he coming up with like crazy ass injuries because he played so damn hard? Is the Franz Wagner Palo Bancaro Tandem is it viable or not? We gotta get an answer to this this year. If we do, and it's all gravy, it works out. If not, this team who's over under is 43 and a half, I am looking for them to go under a little bit. 42 and 40 sounds good to me. It's not that I don't believe. I just you gotta show it to me. You gotta show it to me. I need I love Jalen Suggs. Think he's an absolute dog, I think he's an absolute winner. I just need you on the court. I love Paulo Guncarol. I don't care what the analytics say. But you gotta be more efficient for me to like continue to bang the drum for you, my guy. And Franz, you need to do Franz things. But you need to shoot the ball better. One of you gotta shoot the ball better. Either Glen Carroll or Franz Wagner. Somebody needs to get to 37-38%. So I hope that both of these guys was in the lab shooting a bunch of threes over the offseason and they figured this shit out. Because if they don't, this is another season that the Orlando Magic are spinning their wills, and here's the thing: there is no help on the horizon. Your cap situation is about to get real murky, and you don't have draft picks to be able to infuse new talent into this lineup. So, there will be a trade of one of the weak boys, either Ron Carroll or Wagner. Take my word for it. If this shit don't look sweet by the all-star break, or before, a little week before, we don't start to see what this team is supposed to look like by the middle of January, this is gonna be a tough situation in Orlando. Tough. So that's what I'm looking for. But I think that you don't hit your mark because I don't know if you figured it out. I'm skeptical because I haven't seen it yet. Doesn't mean that I don't think it can necessarily happen. It just means you gotta prove it to me. Alright. Now,

Heat Go All In On Giannis

we are going to get to the Miami Heat. You know why? Because the Miami Heat got a lot of stuff going on. First and foremost, obviously Giannis Antecumpo has entered the chat. You know what I'm saying? God God bless him. Boy, did Miami give up a lot to get him. Now they went 43 and 39 last year. Their over-under for win total is 46 and a half. We will see where they get to. They went out and got their guy. Listen, they lost in the playoff game again. Pat Riley said, I'm sick of this shit. We've been bribes made on all these other like superstars, but this year we will pay the toll and we'll get our guy. And that guy was Giannis Ante Tacumpo. And I'm gonna tell you right now. Is the fit great? No. But is Giannis great? Absolutely. Is he gonna help this team win? For sure. We got some questions around him, but we're gonna get to those in a second. Let's talk about the trade. They gave up a lot to get him. Let's be really honest about that. They gave up Tyler Hero, Khalil Ware, Jaime Hawkes Jr., Cascaris Yakatunis, and the 13 overall pick. Now, picks out unprotected, 2031, 2033. They have a quick swap in 2030. They got Bobby Cortis as well. Clay Thompson, his uh is now in South Beach, so his boat can be out in the water. I think Klay on his boat is better than Clay landlocked. We'll see how that go. Timmy Hardaway Jr. is now a Miami Heat. He's gonna be wearing his daddy's number. It's gonna be great. I can't wait to see it. Now, do they have things in their arsenal? Yes. Can they trade them? I don't know. They got picks 2028, 2029, and 2030. Now, there's a swap tangle in and 2032, so they're thin as far as picks are concerned, but Pat Riley can you know he can work some magic. The Godfather is out here going to make deals. And here's the other thing Pat Riley is what? Like 81, 81 years of age. So he has a expiration date, and I'm not trying to be very morbid here, but I'm saying if somebody is willing to go all in, it's gonna be the godfather, Pat Riley. Okay? The slick back silver haired devil is gonna try to get it done. Okay, for sure. He got Giannis. Yes, he got Clay. Clay's a little bit longer in the tooth. You need some three-point shooting that you can depend on, that you can rely on. We will see what also can shake out. Maybe it's not this year coming up, but maybe it's in the next offseason. I don't know. But we will see. Let's talk about the team in question. Giannis is a MVP walking around. Not just back in the day, but the numbers are still there. Now he didn't play in a bunch of games last year, but here's the thing 27.6 points a game, damn near 10 rebounds a game at 9.8, 5.4 assists a game, true shooting percentage of 62.4%. This dude is a killer. His efficiency is a uh is awesome. 65.8% true shooting percentage. Are you kidding me? He has a free throw rate of 59.7%. This dude is listen, they got a dude. Now here's the problem. He's been injured lately. Games played over the last three seasons, 73, three years ago, 67, 2 years ago, last year, 36. Okay. Gotta keep him healthy. We're hoping that the the Miami area has good orthopaedic people as far as that's concerned, and there's just healing park properties in the water down there to keep our guy on the court. The one thing that Giannis is gonna do is charge down the middle of the lane and try to get buckets. He is like a bull in a China shop, and he is going to get his 10 uh free throw temps a game. Now, is he gonna shoot threes? Absolutely freaking not. He shoots 33%, he only shoots 1.3 threes a game. So, no, no, no, no. Now, when he played in a real year where he played like over 65 games, his usage was uh 35.4 percent, and he had a net rating of positive 12.3 that's MVP numbers right there. MVP numbers now he says during his media day availability, he said the goal is to win a championship. That's the goal. You know who also believes in that pat Riley. Pat Riley is you are winning a championship, or the season is an absolute failure. We don't give out participation medals here in Miami. We seen the fan base down there. That fan base is about glitz and glam. You know how you get glitz and glam? You put a bunch of W's in the marker every single year. It's not good enough to have cool ass uniforms that are like pastel blue and pink, and you have Miami Vice Knight on the court. That's great, man. That's awesome. Winning games is awesome too. Mean to win some fucking games out here, and Giannis is about that life.

Bam Efficiency And Shooting Around Stars

So, how they gonna do this? How are they gonna do this? Well, that's a good question. Starting off, bam out of bio. Bam out of bio, put up 83 points, we think fraudulently, uh, you know what I'm saying? Listen, no, I don't I respect the hustle or whatever, but we know you Jerry rigged that 83 points, my guy. Taking down Kobe's number 81 to be the second best uh scoring game of all time. But as far as being out of a player is concerned, got a couple questions. Now, I think it's getting because of shot selection, but the past three years of his field goal percentage has gone steadily down. 52.1% three years ago. Or two years, yeah, three years ago, two years ago, 48.5 percent last year, 44.2 percent, true shooting percentage, also steadily down, 57.6 percent, 56.1, and then 55.1. The scoring and the production numbers still lead 20 and 10 a game, positive 22 box plus minus, second team all defense, all those things are great, but somebody gonna have to shoot the three. I don't know if it's gonna be him, no clue, but you're gonna have to do something to provide space for what Bam Alabio and um Giannis Antecupo do. So Klay Thompson and Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins. I hope y'all shoot nothing but threes and hit him. Now, Andrew Wiggins has been doing work. The Lakers tried to get him. They wanted him so bad last year, they could taste it. They couldn't get him. This dude has turned his whole career around. Remember when we was like sitting there thinking to ourselves, like, man, is Andrew Wiggins ever gonna pan out? And then he went to Golden State and put up that monster year when Golden State won the championship back in 2022. Now this dude is shooting 41.4% from three on five attempts. He is a positive defensive box class minus a one. And now you also pair him with Bobby Cortis, who shoots a bunch of threes. You know what I'm saying? 45% on 4.4 attempts. He's gonna have to up that a little bit this year. You might lose a little bit of the percentage. If he went down to 42 and he shot six threes a game, I think Miami would take that trade-off. Bobby Cardis lost 20 pounds in the offseason. They take their strength and conditioning very serious in Miami. If you have a uh body mass or BMI that's too high, or your um, if you have a body fat percentage of more than six, Pat Riley's gonna come down from his office and whoop your ass. Just let you know. So we'll see how that all goes. There's no question whether the Miami Heat is gonna be able to play defense. Is can they create enough space for Giannis and Bam to do their thing? So the Pell Larsons of the world, the Davion Mitchell's of the world who shoot the three ball, well, we're gonna need more volume. More. Okay, more volume. Is Jovich a real player? We're gonna have to find out. So, what are the keys to the Miami Heat going over their number, which is 46 and a half? Well,

Miami Over Under Hinges On Health

very easy. Giannis and Bam Iobio play 65 plus games. You that's more of an issue on the Giannis side than it is on the Autobio side, but we will see how it all goes. Now, once those dudes do that, is the three-point shooting continuing to three-point itself? Clay Thompson, can you get back to 40%? Or are you too old to not do that anymore? Can Wiggins continue to sustain his level of excellence beyond the three-point line at 41.4%? Is Davion Mitchell really almost a 40% three-point shooter? Is that what he is now? Because if that's the case, they got a real shot at doing this. And here's the thing. I do not ever bet against Eric Spostra. I don't bet against this dude at all. So those are the keys for them to do it. Now, if they don't do it, the lower leg injuries of Giannis continue. The depth that they lost with the four players becomes a real thing and it's and it absolutely debilitates that team. Giannis doesn't get to the free throw line nearly as much because they don't respect the three-point shooting of the rest of the Miami Heat. Can Clay turn back the clock one more time? And can we get more efficiency from Bam out of bio? I understand that you had a lot of things on your shoulders the last couple years, and maybe this has kind of affected your efficiency, but we're gonna need to for you to be a lot more efficient this year. So I think they will be battling the Hawks for the best uh record in their division, and they'll be battling for a playoff spot for sure. Now, as far as actually what they're looking at, as far as what they're gonna do, what the fans should be focused on, Yiannis playing games. That's it. Pat Riley sitting there in his seat along with Alonzo Morning looking stoic and Giannis playing a bunch of games. If he does that, they have a really good shot of getting over the 46 and a half games. If not, they're not going to get over 46 and a half games. They're just not going to do it. So it really comes down to Giannis. Now do I have faith that Giannis is going to be able to do this? Yeah, I do. I do. I think they just sneak in under the buzzer and they get to 40. They get to 48 wins. I think they get to 48. They get there. And then we'll see what they look like in the playoffs. And that's what it really comes down to it. Now, I don't know if they need one more guy. I am thinking that they do for them to be like a legitimate like title contender. But as long as you got Giannis Andrew DeCupo on the team, you get him into a playoff series, he's going to scare the holy shit out about any competitor that he plays. Because that dude is an MVP candidate just walking around. Just walking amongst us, MVP candidate. That dude wakes up, rolls out of bed, and pisses excellence every single day. We seen that dude. You seen his body. You seen what this man puts himself through every single day to be the best he can possibly be. I don't doubt Miami. I don't doubt Eric Spulstra. And I'm damn sure not going to doubt Giannis and Titacumpo. I think they get the 48 wins. They get over 46 and a half wins. I think they're like a four or five seed. And let the let the fun begin when it comes to the playoffs. The

Hawks Built Around Jalen Johnson

last thing that we need to talk about is the Atlanta Hawks. We went over today. I don't care. We just this was a fun uh this is a fun division to talk about. So we're gonna talk about the Atlanta Hawks real right now. They have what is what is the their uh what are they looking at? They got a lot going on here. Their line is 43 and a half. That's their line. That's fine. What do the Hawks have? Well, they got rid of Trey Young, so Jalen Johnson is the whole offense at this point. Listen, 22, 10, and 8 is nothing to be uh over here be mad about. Y'all can sit here and talk about oh man, we got rid of Trey. Terrible. CJ McCullough was cool coming off the bench, but man, we're gonna miss Trey. I think there are certain levels you are gonna miss them, and I think there are certain levels that you're not gonna miss them. And here's the other thing. Quinn Snyder has been have begged and begged Trey Young to get off ball. You know how they got Trey Young off ball? They shipped his ass to Washington. That's how they got him off ball. Again, Jalen Johnson, 72 games, 22 and a half points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists. Oh, he also chipped in 1.2 steals as well. My man was an absolute menace. He shot almost 50% last year at 48.9. He shot a little bit less than league average on the three ball, which is 35.2. League average is 36, or almost 5 attempts. He I think like this dude is another jump is coming. Another jump is coming. I can't wait to see it. I think he's probably like a 24, 10 and a half rebound. I think the eight assists is probably kind of steady, keep it steady right there. You know, now here's the thing. Without Trey being the ball handler, the turnover rate was a little bit high. He's gonna have to fix that 14.9% uh turnover percentage. But I think now that he knows it's his team, we know what we're working with, we're gonna be alright. Now, Atlanta got some dogs with them.

Nikhil Breakout And Perimeter Dogs

They traded for Nikhil Alexander Walker, and nobody could have expected what you got out of Nikhil Alexander Walker. He started 71 games, he averaged damn near 21 points a game, 3.4 rebounds, 3 assists, the steals 1.3. He shot the ball very well, shot 46% from the field, 40% from 3 on 8.1 attempts. And he also shot 90% from the free throw line. True shooting percentage was 61%. This dude had a stellar year. A stellar year. He was coming off the bench in Minnesota. They were starting Dante D. Vincenzo over him. No shade. No shade whatsoever. It's kind of like one of those things. The last time I saw this, um, do you guys remember Jermaine O'Neal? Now, Jermaine O'Neill was a little bit different situation in Portland. Okay, we going in the way back machine. So for all my kids out there, start YouTube and Jermaine O'Neal. So he starts his career off in Portland. He can't get any burn because he got a bunch of people in front of him. He's a big, okay. They trade him to Indiana. He blows up, dude, averaging like 20-something points a game, almost 10 rebounds, the whole dime, and then it goes from there. And the kill Alexander Walker just reminds me of that. Here's a guy who was coming off the bench, being pretty productive, also played hella defense for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the plus 11.4 points a game, we did not see none of this coming. Most include player, you right, for sure. This dude shot 8.13 a game at 40%. This is one of those things where you sit there and you go, You gotta cultivate it. You gotta cultivate it. One of one of the scouts says that uh the shooting is real, he moves well without the ball, he doesn't need many dribbles. Uh what I watch is whether the threes can stay near 40% when the defense starts running him off the line. I don't I listen, I think you got enough dudes that can get into the paint and what have you. I think Nikhil Alexander Walker going from 9.4 points a game to 20.8 is a freaking miracle. Not because the game I didn't believe in the game, it's just one of those things, it's just one of those crazy anomalies that pop up and you go, What the hell happened? What is he doing? Oh shit, that's crazy. And it was it was crazy. Now, what else do they have? Dyson Daniels, who's a defensive crazy man. They also picked up Lou Dort. Are you scoring on this team at all? You you got Nikhil Alexander Walker, Lou Dort, and you got Dyson Daniels on the squad. Dyson Daniels gets out of bed and has two steals. Okay? Now you can say what you want about Lou Dort that maybe starting, you know, like OKC pull the plug at like the exact right moment or whatever. But if Lou Dort is, I don't know if he's gonna start, I don't know if he's coming off the bench, I don't know what they're gonna do with him. But I know this, there are gonna be some situations where Nikhil Alexander Walker, Dyson Daniels, and Lou Dort are gonna be on the court at the same exact time. And I'm gonna say to all the wings and the guards out there, good freaking luck dealing with that. Good luck. Have fun playing Atlanta. Oh, by the way, you no longer can road teams go to Atlanta, go to Magic City, and then the next night play the Hawks. You can't do that anymore. Cause you will have your lunch stolen. Okay, by all of these dudes that are on this team. And then they got the steadying influence of CJ McCullum, who played 76 games across two teams last year, had 19 points a game, almost four assists a game. Like CJ McCullum

Hawks Win Total Case For The Over

found his role, boy. I tell you. It's gonna be great. Love it. Love all of it. Now Atlanta made a shrewd trade last year. They somehow fleeced New Orleans. It ended up with the eighth overall pick, which turns out to be Kingston Flemings out of Houston. He's 19 years of age. He put up buckets in Houston, 6.4 points a game, almost four rebounds, five and a half assists. Oh, he's also a steel merchant at 1.6. So and he shoots a three-ball at about 40%, and he shot 48% from the field. He's not very big, he's six foot two and a half, he doesn't have a long work wingspan. But if you know anything about guards playing in Houston, guess what you have to do? You have to pick up full court, you gotta get a bunch of deflections, and your chest needs to be in the middle of the player that you are defending. This is like young De'Aaron Fox. And when I say young De'Ren Fox, I'm talking about the Kentucky year and the first couple years when he was in Sacramento, when he was D'ing fools up left and right. I love this kid. They didn't stop there, they got Zubi uh Ojafor from St. John's. Uh he's a six, he's a six foot seven and a half wing with a seven uh seven point seven foot two inch wingspan. He's one of those connector type dudes, another defender, loves to rebound, all those type of things. Now, are the threes real? I don't know. I don't know. But here's another guy who plays defense. Now I feel bad about uh Henry Vasort. He was uh gonna be the stretch big that a lot of people wanted uh Atlanta to have, but he tore his uh right ACL on September 15th during a workout, so uh my man is not gonna be playing this year, but I'm gonna tell you right now, it is bright in Atlanta. The ATL is gonna be popping for show. Okay, if Flemings is who I think he is, now I don't know if it'll it'll bear fruit this year to the point where he takes over that role. But I'm gonna tell you right now, things are looking on the up up for the Atlanta Hawks. I love this team, I love what they've been able to do. I think that um a congu is a smallish center. I think if they had a little bit bigger dude, I would be even more bullish on the Atlanta Hawks, but they have enough uh perimeter defense to keep him clean. Cause here's the thing 15.2 points a game, he blocks a shot, he gets a steal every single game, he just doesn't rebound the basketball the the way I would like. You know, I wish they had just a little bit more there. But their perimeter defense is absolutely wild. Now, they are supposed to they're uh 43 their numbers 43 and a half. Do they get a whole year out of out of Jalen Johnson? Is the is the Nikhil Alexander Walker career year now what we expect every single year? Can we get another season of CJ McCollum playing out of his freaking mind? And does Fleming step up and earn minutes as a legitimate like floor leader for the Atlanta Hawks? If all those things hit, they're gonna go way over their number. Way over their number. Now why why they don't hit their number is this Does Jalen Johnson play enough games? Is Dyson Daniels gonna play enough games? Um It's gonna be injury. You can say that for every team, but for this team, it's the sum of their parts that make them special. I believe that. You know? Now, is there gonna be regression off the three-point shot from Alexander Walker? Cause that 39.9% he shot last year was his career high. You're in a really competitive division in a real competitive Eastern conference now. So there's a lot of things that can hold you down from hitting that number, but they they're just they're stacked. And if they can get what they can get out of it, I I I love their chances. I love their chances. Now, do I think they're going over their 43 and a half? Yeah, for sure. I do. I believe in this team. I think that they will battle the Miami Heat for the division title. Um, they will also it whoever wins their division is also gonna, I mean, this is seems stupid for me to say this now, but it's gonna be key because I think that the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Rap Atlanta Hawks are going to be basically in that 4-5 range, and whoever wins the division is gonna host that playoff series. And I, by a slight margin, slight, slight margin, I think Atlanta gets him. I think Atlanta gets him. I don't think they can go 50 and 32, but I think they can go 49 and 33. I think they're gonna go over their win total. I think this this team is uh only going to get better. I think, you know, another year of Jalen Johnson being able to run that situation, and again, defense is everywhere on that team. Everywhere. So even if they don't shoot it well enough, they're not gonna allow you to shoot it well enough. So there's that.

Shoutouts Socials And Final Message

Oh man, we gotta talk about some other stuff, but the thing that we need to go ahead and do is uh let y'all know two things. I gotta give a shout out to to all you guys. Love y'all, y'all getting really um honey down on social media for us. We appreciate you so much for that. It is awesome what you guys are doing for us. We appreciate it. So keep it coming, keep it going. We gotta keep this thing going. So you know the skill. FRPC is your squad. Do us one favor, share this episode with the one person in your group chat that needs it to hear it, you know what I'm saying? Follow us on X, Instagram, all the places, front runner at frontrunner PC on X, at FRPC events on Instagram, uh, also FRPC Vince on the YouTube channel, and also on TikTok. Tickety talks. We got the ticket talks, and we got the all everything going. So those are the socials. Now, the last thing we say here is the best part of you is still you, not your win-loss record, not your timeline, not your algorithm. Just you. You are enough all by your damn self. Surround yourself with people who actually give you light and don't and don't try to lead you into the darkness. The ones who bring you insight and the joy and real accountability, those are your max deal. Appreciate them out loud and do not wait for a later date that nobody has promised you. I am a big believer on appreciating people the moment, in the moment. Lost my mother a couple years ago, and it was one of the rattling cries of her death. Was like, not that she said anything, which is something that hit me. When you see something that you appreciate or somebody does something for you, show love right right then and there. Now we're your hoop family here at Front Runner Podcast Collective. We're gonna be loud. We're probably gonna get some things wrong from time to time, but we're gonna come back and we're gonna own it. And we will always respect your brain because anybody can yell a take, but very few can actually defend a thought. Until next episode, keep your mind sharp, your heart open, your circle tight, and protect your peace like cap space, and never waste it on bad basketball or bad energy. I'm Vince, this is FRPC, and we are out. Deuces.