By Vince Carter
The Southwest Division win totals for 2026-27 are set, and I went through all five teams on the latest Front Runner Podcast Collective episode, from the Pelicans up to the Spurs. The lines are DraftKings’ via SI on Oct 15. Here is where I land on each one, and why. These are my opinions, not betting advice, and lines move.
Spurs, 60.5: under, around 58-24
Rockets, 47.5: over, I think they might be a 51-win team
Mavericks, 33.5: over, for sure
Grizzlies, 29.5: over, 36 to 38 wins in the good case
Pelicans, 28.5: no over, right around the line
New Orleans Pelicans: 28.5
New Orleans went 26-56 last season, and the line says the books are not buying a quick fix. The biggest change is on the bench. Jamahl Mosley arrives on a five-year deal after three straight playoff trips in Orlando, and his first job is a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in each of the last two seasons. The Pelicans also signed Bennedict Mathurin, and the 2025 trade up for Derik Queen cost them their 2026 first-round pick.
My path to the over has three conditions. Dejounte Murray plays 55 games, Zion Williamson plays 65, and the defense climbs to somewhere towards the middle. Zion’s number is the one I keep coming back to: “Is Zion gonna actually play 65 games?”
There is also a new reason to keep competing. Under the NBA’s anti-tanking changes, passed in May, the three worst teams get 5.4% odds at the No. 1 pick, lose a lottery ball and cannot fall below No. 12.
Even so, I don’t see the over. I think they’re going to land right around that number, and I wonder whether New Orleans ends up with one of the worst records in the league. The future is Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen, and I want them given runway. The trade chip is Trey Murphy III:
“If you put Trey Murphy on the market, you are going to get a lot in return for Trey Murphy.”
Memphis Grizzlies: 29.5
The Morant era is over. Memphis reportedly sent Ja Morant to Portland for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray on June 29, after Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. had already left. What is left is a reset built around Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 pick in the 2026 draft.
I’m all in on the rookie. To me, Cameron Boozer was the safest pick in a draft, even though he went third, and the case is simple: this dude knows how to play basketball. He is not the most explosive athlete or the best rim protector, I’ll admit, but he scores, passes and rebounds, and he is not afraid of the lights.
The wings help. Cedric Coward averaged 13.6 points and nearly five rebounds as a rookie, and Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart arrive as veteran additions. The swing factor is Zach Edey, who played just 11 games last season because of recurring ankle trouble.
My pick is the over, with a range. If Boozer is who I think he is, this is a 36-to-38 win team. If Boozer is not that good and Edey’s health looks like last year, I still have them over the line at around 32.
“I think this is the start of something really cool in Memphis.”
Dallas Mavericks: 33.5
Dallas went 26-56 and then rebuilt its front office. Masai Ujiri is now president, Mike Schmitz is general manager and Dusty May is the first-year head coach. The roster has a franchise player and a returning star: Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving.
Flagg won Rookie of the Year with 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists, taking the award over Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel by 56 first-place votes to 44. His shooting split was 47/30/83 (field goal, three-point, free throw), which is why my one worry is the three-point shot. The rest of his case is about how he competes: “He doesn’t like to lose, he doesn’t like to get embarrassed.”
Kyrie is 34 and coming back from a torn ACL, and I love what he adds. Kyrie is an absolute sorcerer when it comes to just dribbling. Then comes the storyline. Kyrie does not fit Dallas’s timeline, and a good start could turn him into a trade chip. If a contender calls with the right draft capital, are you really keeping a 34-year-old guard? My answer: “I think that [Ujiri] will be on the phones in January if Kyrie looks awesome. Just saying.” That is the kind of January offer Dallas may not refuse.
My pick is the over, for sure. The young supporting cast includes Morez Johnson Jr., the No. 9 pick out of Michigan, and Sergio De Larrea, the No. 25 pick, while Santi Aldama arrived in an offseason trade. I don’t buy the playoff talk, though. I see Dallas in the fight for the 10th spot.
Houston Rockets: 47.5
Houston has won 52 games two years running and lost in the first round both times. The line is 47.5, and I like the over. I think Houston might be a 51-win team fighting for home-court advantage in round one.
“They have way too much talent not to.”
The talent is not the question. The mood is. Udoka said at media day that he did not think anyone met expectations for Kevin Durant’s first season in Houston, and ABC13 reported a dispute over Durant’s workload, with Udoka and general manager Rafael Stone wanting to cut his minutes. Then there are the DMs. In February, screenshots of messages tied to a burner account circulated, with comments about Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün. Durant said he was not there to get into “Twitter nonsense” and never confirmed or denied them, and Şengün later said he never had an argument with him. I have not forgotten it, and I’m petty enough to say so. My bigger question is whether Durant can be happy, and whether he can lead. It has the tension of Phil Collins’ “In the Air Tonight,” everybody waiting on the drums.
The cure may be the people around him. Fred VanVleet is back from the right ACL tear he suffered in September 2025, and Marcus Smart arrives to add leadership and defense. My other ask is for Udoka to loosen the reins, especially for Reed Sheppard: you gotta loosen the reins just a little bit, my man.
San Antonio Spurs: 60.5
San Antonio won 62 games last year and reached the NBA Finals before the Knicks closed the series in Game 5. Victor Wembanyama is the reason the line is this high. He averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks in 64 games, won Defensive Player of the Year and signed a five-year, $252 million extension with no escalators and a player option in the fifth year. Tobias Harris joins as an offseason addition.
I’m on the under, at about 58-24. Are they gonna hit the over? Probably not. My reason is not Wemby, who will not be the thing we need to worry about. It is the group around him, and what I watched in the opener on Oct 20, a 116-104 Thunder win. San Antonio started Fox, Castle, Harper and Vassell around Wembanyama, and Wemby went 1-for-13, missing his first 12 shots, according to Yahoo Sports. It is one game, and I’m not calling it a preview of the season. But I did not like what I saw: a small team in a conference full of size.
My argument is about the West. Houston has what I call “tree trunk dudes,” Oklahoma City had the ability to put two seven-footers out there at all times, and Utah is projected to go big with Lauri Markkanen at 7-foot-1, Jaren Jackson Jr. at 6-foot-10 and Jusuf Nurkic at 6-foot-11, per the Deseret News. Just because Wemby is an alien doesn’t mean the rest of your lineup can be all the people from munchkin land. I want that fourth spot filled by someone 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10, ideally a shooter and a rim protector, whether by trade or otherwise, before the playoffs. I don’t expect a collapse, because San Antonio is too talented and Wemby is too good, but this is not a championship type of lineup.
The young guards are part of the story. Stephon Castle’s flaw is turnovers, which showed up in the Finals, and Dylan Harper, who received Rookie of the Year votes, is the one who should be playing point guard. Dylan Harper grew up in the playoffs. Whether the rotation sorts itself out or needs a nudge before the trade deadline is the question that decides whether this is a ceiling problem or something worse. The Spurs are talented enough that it is a ceiling problem.