Atlantic Division Win Totals 2026-27: Knicks Over, Celtics Under, and a Sixers Team Fighting Itself

By Vince Carter

Behind the Mic: How the Atlantic Division Win Totals Episode Got Built

Five teams, five win totals, and a Friday recording that stretched to an hour and a half. That's the short version of how we got through the Atlantic Division for the 2026-27 NBA season. The long version starts earlier in the week, when the records stopped being the interesting part and the strange numbers took over.

We did not wing this one. I say that about every episode and somebody in the group chat always figures I'm exaggerating. Jordynne, our producer, pulled the rosters, the sportsbook lines, the cap sheets and the pick ownership for all five teams, and she runs prep the way the kitchen runs in The Bear, minus the screaming. My side of the table is the scouting reports, the articles, and the phone calls to people who actually watch these teams for a living. Then our social crew and our graphic designer turned the best stats into cards, which is a polite way of saying somebody else had to make my math look good.

This was the third stop on our Zone Coverage tour, after the Central and the Southeast. The rules never change. We start at the bottom of the division and climb, every team gets a win total, and every team gets a verdict. Nobody flips a coin around here. For each club I want to know why they go over, why they fall short, and which single player, coach or trade decides it.

A few confessions from the booth. Midway through the Nets segment I quoted the wrong sportsbook, caught it, and fixed it on the spot, because I would rather be right than smooth. I'm still working on how to say Egor Demin's name, and I'll get there. I watched a preseason game the night before we recorded, and the style of play left a worry in my head that you'll read about in the Sixers section. Also, I'm new to TikTok. I call it the Tiki Tox. I'm old, and I've made my peace with it.

Worst to first, so we start in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn Nets: Why I Have Them Barely Over 24.5 Wins

Brooklyn went 20-62 last year and still walked out of the lottery with a pick outside the top five. That takes a special kind of bad luck stacked on a special kind of bad basketball. FanDuel has the Nets at 24.5 wins this season, the second lowest number on the board, and only Sacramento sits below them. The books aren't feeling sentimental.

The reason is easy to find. Brooklyn ranked 30th in paint field goal percentage at 55.3, 28th in mid-range at 37.1, and 30th from three at 34 percent. In plain language for the group chat, they couldn't finish, they couldn't space, and when they tried both at once they managed neither. Nic Claxton also left for Chicago with his 11.7 points and 6.9 rebounds, which puts Day'Ron Sharpe in the middle of everything.

The 2025 draft class owes Brooklyn something

The Nets used five first-round picks last year. Five. Drake Powell finished with a box plus-minus of minus 6.0, Nolan Traore at minus 6.8, Ben Saraf at minus 7.3 and Danny Wolf at minus 2.5. Egor Demin was the best of the bunch at minus 1.6, and he picked up All-Rookie votes. When your shining light sits at minus 1.6, the draft class needs a hug and probably a film session. I still believe Saraf becomes a player somehow, and I see Wolf landing as a backup big who can stretch the floor. Somebody from that group has to pop, or Brooklyn fans will spend all winter humming Good Luck, Babe! at the front office.

Michael Porter Jr. got the ball, and the whole defense came with it

Porter scored 24.2 points a game last year, and his usage jumped from 20.2 percent to 30.5. His true shooting slipped from 61.7 to 59.5, a respectable dip for a guy who suddenly carries the offense. His assist rate doubled from 8.7 to 18.2. Only 9 percent of his threes were wide open, which has to feel like culture shock after years beside Jokic, Murray and Gordon. Denver Porter was the outie. Brooklyn Porter is the innie, and the innie never gets a clean look.

A scout from the Southeast who studied him for years put it better than I can. Nobody doubts he can score. The question is whether Brooklyn can manufacture a good shot for him. His games played over the last four years run 52, 62, 81, 77, so at least the health trend points the right way.

Julius Randle and the clock on this marriage

Randle returns to the New York market on the wrong side of the bridge, a bit of an Anti-Hero in a Nets jersey. He gave Minnesota 21.1 points, almost seven rebounds and five assists over 79 games, with a true shooting of 58.5 and a box plus-minus of plus 1.5. The decline is real, though. His rebound rate has fallen from 15.4 to 11.2 since the 2022-23 All-Star season, and he's down to 31.5 percent from three on 4.5 attempts. The part of his game Brooklyn needs is the passing. Over the last seven years only Jokic, Giannis and Luka rank ahead of him in assists on threes.

His last playoff run was ugly, a 10.6 PER and 47.9 true shooting across 12 games. Small sample, but it's the last thing we saw. He turns 32 on November 29, and the question for February is whether he's in Brooklyn for the long haul or just waiting on a contender to call around the deadline.

Day'Ron Sharpe, the lone anchor

With Claxton gone, rim protection belongs to Sharpe. In 18.7 minutes a night he posted a 20.5 PER and a 63.8 true shooting, which works out to 16.7 points and 12.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. He's one of only five players to reach 15 points and 12 rebounds per 36 in each of the last three seasons. Brooklyn was plus 0.4 per 100 possessions with him on the floor and minus 9 without him, and he's the only Net with a positive on-off.

The warts are real too. He turns the ball over on 20 percent of his possessions, hits 67.8 percent of his free throws, and saw his block rate fall from 4.6 to 2.1. He started seven games all year. An analytics director from another team called his minutes the easiest raise on the roster. I'm less sure. A bigger role usually costs you efficiency, and he's about to be the only real big on the floor.

Mikel Brown Jr. and the injury question

I like this kid, and I'll keep saying it. The sixth pick in the 2026 draft out of Louisville is 6'5 and 190 pounds, and he averaged 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 21 games. The overall line looks ordinary at 41 percent from the field and 34.4 from three, until you see the 84.4 from the free throw line and the split in his season. Through December 13 he sat at 16.6 points on 38 percent shooting and 27 from deep. From January 24 to February 23 he put up 21.1 on 45 percent overall and 43 from three. He dropped 45 on NC State and went 10 for 16 from deep in that game.

Then the back flared up again, and he missed the ACC tournament and March Madness. His assist rate of 30.3 ranked fourth among freshmen, and his box plus-minus was plus 5. A scout who tracks this class told me he's a creator who is better making his own shot than catching and shooting. I'd add that there's a little James Harden clone in that dribble package. He's thin, so he has to add weight in Brooklyn, and everyone has to hope the back isn't a yearly appointment.

What decides the over

Brooklyn goes over if Porter plays 70 or more games, Sharpe logs more than 26 minutes a night, and Randle gets Porter something better than a 9 percent wide-open rate. The under shows up if two high-usage forwards share a floor with no real rim protection and the young players stay deep in the minus column. Rookie guards rarely help right away, and history doesn't care how much I like Mikel.

The picks add a wrinkle. The Nets own their firsts in 2027, 2029 and 2031 plus a Denver first in 2032, but Houston holds swap rights on the 2027 pick, which I believe traces back to the Harden deal. James Harden left Houston, then left Brooklyn, and the leftovers keep arriving like a bill in the mail.

My call is 26-56, a game and a half better than the 24.5 number. I don't think Porter and Randle add up to much together, because Randle has to age into a smaller role and he's being asked to share the main job. Which means that pick is probably headed to Houston anyway. Brooklyn fans should watch the young players and then watch early February, when Porter or Randle could bring back something that helps the future. Meanwhile the Knicks keep eating the headlines in a city where Brooklyn isn't sure it's even playing for second place.

Toronto Raptors: The Kawhi Leonard Swing and My 47-Win Case

Toronto won 46 games last year and lost a game seven to Cleveland. Then the front office sent Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick to the Clippers and came back with Kawhi Leonard. On last year's numbers it's the biggest per-minute upgrade anyone in the Atlantic made, and the sportsbooks shrugged. The Raptors opened at 45.5 wins, and 45.5 is exactly where they stayed.

The price is steep but far down the road. Toronto owes the Clippers unprotected firsts in 2031 and 2033. In return it holds a 2027 swap with L.A., which gets interesting if the Clippers fall apart the way I expect, and it still owns its own firsts in 2028, 2029, 2030 and 2032. The Clippers wanted Kawhi out of town badly after all the noise and bad publicity, and Toronto cashed in on that.

I also have to thank Toronto for Sandro Mamukelashvili. He's a Laker now, and we love him out here. He played 80 games for the Raptors, scored 11.2 a night off the bench on 63.7 true shooting, and carried a plus 2.8 box plus-minus. The front line is thinner without him and without the rest of that departing group.

Kawhi's numbers and the only question that matters

Kawhi scored 27.9 points a game last season on 62.9 true shooting, with a usage rate of 33.5 and a box plus-minus of plus 8. He hit 38.7 percent of 6.8 threes a night and nearly 90 percent of his 5.7 free throw tries, finished seventh in MVP voting, and made second-team All-NBA. At 35 he's still playing like a certified stud, and the only catch is the training room.

Over the last four seasons he played 52, 68, 37 and 65 games, which is 222 of a possible 328, or 68 percent. He has appeared in only 22 of 37 playoff games over the last six years. Last season he reached 65 on the nose, so if there's a market out there on whether he does it again, that's the real bet on this roster. History says no. Raptors fans will be playing Wait for U on repeat for the first month, and honestly they should.

Every timeline in the multiverse has a version where Toronto wins with him. The job is finding the one where he's actually dressed. When he is, the fit is clean. Over the last three years his effective field goal percentage in the final six seconds of the shot clock is 53 percent, ninth among 130 players, so Toronto finally has a half-court closer on a team that lives in transition. My guess is he comes off the bench, even if the lineup card says otherwise.

Barnes, Murray-Boyles and the supporting cast

Scottie Barnes scored less last year, 18.1 compared to 19.3, but everything under the hood improved. His field goal percentage jumped from 44.6 to 50.7, true shooting from 52.3 to 57.7, and box plus-minus from 2.4 to 4.2. He played 80 games, made the All-Star team, finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and landed on the second-team All-Defense. He's still a 30.4 percent three-point shooter, but with Kawhi beside him maybe he takes one fewer a game and everybody gets happier.

Colin Murray-Boyles is the one I'm hyped about. He played 57 regular season games, then showed up in the playoffs with 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds on 65.6 percent shooting, a 68.5 true shooting and a plus 5.6 box plus-minus. As a rookie. He added a 12 percent offensive rebound rate, a 4.1 block rate and a plus 1.5 defensive box plus-minus. Nothing about that stage seemed to bother him. The homework is the three-ball, 17 for 50 on the year (34 percent) on less than a shot a game, and 0 for 3 in the playoffs.

Imanuel Quickley played 70 games after playing 38 and 33 in the previous two seasons. He averaged 16.5 points and six assists, shot 37.5 percent on almost seven threes, and kept his turnover rate at 9.3 percent. With Barnes and Kawhi drawing the defense, his looks should get easier. Rookie Allen Graves out of Santa Clara, the 19th pick, is a long 6'8" or 6'9" wing with a defensive mindset, a little creation and a good feel on the boards.

Over or under

I like Toronto over 45.5 and I'll say 47 wins. That works if Kawhi plays about 65 games at around 32 minutes and their veteran big man stays on the floor after only 46 games and 70 percent shooting last year. It falls apart if Kawhi misses 25 or more, if Quickley's injuries linger, or if all that youth slows down a transition game that scored 18.9 fast-break points last season. They still have picks and mid-sized contracts to make a deal in-season if something is missing.

And look at the East. I don't see anybody winning 60 games, and I think the top seed tops out around 56. Toronto at 47 with the right playoff matchup could cause real chaos. The Kawhi trade cost them future picks, but not in a way that hurts for three or four years, and he's signed for three more seasons. I'm good with it.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Five-Star Lineup and the 146.4 Percent Usage Problem

Best five on paper, hardest team on the board to bet. Philly sent Paul George and picks to Boston for Jaylen Brown, then signed LeBron James for the veteran minimum. The starters are Joel Embiid, LeBron, Brown, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Edgecombe is the one I feel for. He averaged 16 as a rookie, finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, dunked on half the league, and then management went shopping. Now somebody has to tell him to stand in the corner and shoot threes. He's about to have full I'm Just Ken energy, and he's the most talented guy who ever had it.

Last year the Sixers went 45-37 and beat Boston in seven, with Embiid playing like a man possessed, before running out of gas in the next round. The line this year is 50.5.

146.4 percent of one basketball

Here are the usage rates. Brown sits at 36 percent, Embiid at 33.5, Maxey at 29.4, LeBron at 27.2 and Edgecombe a little over 20. Add them up and you get 146.4. You only get to spend 100. This is Squid Game with a shot clock, and somebody doesn't make it to the next round. Maybe it's Edgecombe, and that stinks, but I understand it because talent is talent. Nick Nurse has real work ahead, starting with who plays with the bench.

Embiid and the games played problem

Everything starts with the same question as ever, how many games. When he plays, it's almost 27 points on 60.5 true shooting with a 33.5 usage. Last year that came in 38 games, and his box plus-minus of 4.9 is a long way from where it was. Over four years it runs 9.2, 11.6, 3.5 and 4.9. His defensive rebound rate dropped from 28.8 to 20, his free throw rate fell from 58.1 to 48.1, and his block rate slid from 4.6 to 3.6. Lower-body injuries explain most of it. He's leaner and in better shape this year, and we're all hoping the knees and legs hold.

The attendance record is the scary part. He's played 162 of a possible 328 games over four years, which is 49 percent. Across the last three seasons it's 96 of 246, and he's appeared in only 45 of 94 playoff games.

LeBron at 42

This is year 24, and he turns 42 on December 30. Last season he put up 21 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists in 60 games at 33.2 minutes, with a 59.4 true shooting, a 20.8 PER and a plus 3.5 box plus-minus. Four years ago that PER was 23.9, the box plus-minus was 6.5 and he scored almost 29 a night. He's still a 31 percent three-point shooter and hit a rough 73.7 percent at the line. He's played 256 of a possible 328 games over four seasons, 78 percent. Kendrick made a song called Father Time, and LeBron has been holding the old man off for years.

The Lakers fan in me needed a minute with LeBron in a Sixers jersey, and I'll leave it there. Here's my worry. Last season, with Luka and Reaves hurt, LeBron ran the Lakers on the ball. In Philly he's supposed to be the best second-side initiator in the league, a cutter and connector who kicks to open shooters. Brown is an isolation scorer, Embiid is a post player, and Maxey and Edgecombe like pace, while LeBron at 42 doesn't want to run. After that preseason game, the style clash worries me far more than his ability. An anonymous scout who has watched him for two decades told me the question isn't the legs. It's whether he'll take a smaller role in games that don't matter.

Brown, Maxey and a bench that got thinner

Brown arrives off a career year, 28.7 points in 71 games with a 57.3 true shooting and a plus 3.3 box plus-minus. His free throw attempts jumped from 5.1 to 7.5, and he hit 34.7 percent on almost six threes. Maxey scored 28.3 with 6.6 assists and had the green light all year. Now somebody wants him to bottle that up, which is a hard ask for any player.

The bench took a hit. Anthony Simons gave them 14.2 in 49 games and almost 40 percent from three, and he's the best firecracker back there. KCP and Dean Wade are in the mix. Gone are Andre Drummond, Kyle Lowry, Quentin Grimes and Kelly Oubre Jr., and I wish they'd kept Oubre for his 13 to 15 points a night. The 22nd pick from last year is 6'4 and about 175 pounds, so don't expect much.

The call

Philly goes over if Embiid plays 55 or more games, LeBron stays at 33 minutes or fewer while playing 60 or more games, Brown's isolation volume drops, and Maxey holds at 70 games. They fall short if Embiid misses time and the usage never gets sorted, and I promise you there will be stretches that look great while the rotation still doesn't make sense. The picks are fine. Philly owns its firsts in 2027, 2029, 2030, 2032 and 2033, and Boston holds the 2031 first.

I'll say 52 wins, over the 50.5 line. I know betting on Embiid's health is a habit I should break. I'm doing it anyway. Sixers fans, here's a question for you. Is Tyrese Maxey, not Embiid, the most important player on this team? Hit me on X at @frontrunnerpc.

Boston Celtics: Business, Not Personal

Boston won 56 games last year and then spent the summer doing something I'd call bold, confusing and a little cheap. Jaylen Brown, the seventh best player in the league by the analytics, went to Philadelphia for Paul George. The Celtics also signed Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley, who is older than dial-up. Jayson Tatum returns from the Achilles after a 16-game cameo last year, and he got a full offseason to work on his game instead of rehabbing it. Both of their last two postseasons ended in losses to lower seeds, so nobody can call this a trade made from strength.

I'll call it what it was, which is business. Brown played 71 games and averaged almost 29. He was the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Finals MVP in the title run. Tatum and Brown together took up roughly 130 million dollars of cap, and Brown was due an extension the front office didn't want to pay. The sell job came straight from owner Bill Chisholm's desk, Brad Stevens executes the plan, and the analytics group supplies numbers to match the story. I don't buy that George fits next to Tatum better than the man who won a title next to him.

Rich Flex, except the flex is a spreadsheet. Brown still gets his Flowers, they just get delivered in Philly now. And he told people last season was his most satisfying, which drew some side-eye considering the banner. My whole question is whether Boston could have gotten more by waiting. Just asking.

The Celtics roster in numbers

Boston has been a top five offense and defense for four straight seasons, and last year's offense ran at 126.6 per 100 possessions, the best of the three-year run. The concern is shot diet. Only 41 percent of their attempts came in the paint, last in the league for the third straight year. Joe Mazzulla loves his threes, we know that. They need to diversify this offense soon.

Robinson helps with the offensive glass, and we saw that in New York. He just doesn't play many minutes, and now he's supposed to log 30 a night while being one of the least durable guys in the league. He also hits about 40 percent at the line, so expect heavy Hack-a-Robinson and a lot of fans yelling Hit Me Hard and Soft at the foul line. The center rotation is deep, with Neemias Queta, Luka Garza and first-round rookie Chris Cenac Jr. out of Houston, but it's a committee and committees take time.

George played 37 games last year for 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists, with 39.2 percent on seven threes, a 57 true shooting and a plus 1.7 box plus-minus. That's 11 fewer points than Brown. Over the last four years he's played 56, 74, 41 and 37 games. Not great.

Derrick White needs a bounce-back year too. He played 77 games and remains a heart-and-soul guy, but he shot 32.4 percent from three on 8.3 attempts and his true shooting fell to 52.9, down from 60.6 at one point. His two-point percentage dropped from 59.3 to 48.7. He still blocks shots like a big, 1.3 a game, with a 3.8 block rate, and he's 32 now. Someone I trust told me to ignore the three and watch the twos, and when I checked the numbers, I agreed.

On the picks, Boston owns its firsts in 2027, 2030 and 2033 plus Philadelphia's 2031. There's a conditional with Portland and Washington in 2029, and the 2032 pick is frozen by the cap rules. Not ideal.

Over or under

Boston clears its number if Tatum plays 60 games at around 34 minutes, White's twos come back, Robinson reaches 55 games and fixes the paint, and George plays closer to a normal workload. Those are a lot of ifs. Watch the trade deadline. Is there more paring to come, and is White on his way out? Paul George makes a ton of money too, so the savings came from skipping the Brown extension, which Boston didn't want to do. Brad Stevens says it wasn't about cost-cutting. Come on.

The number I'm working from sits between 49.5 and 51 depending on where you look, and I'm landing on 50 wins with a lean to the under. They'll be competitive, but they have too many questions and too few answers.

New York Knicks: The Champs Didn't Blow It Up

The reigning NBA champions went 53-29 in the regular season and then went 16-3 in the playoffs, coming back on San Antonio again and again like it was a hobby. The line this year is 52.5. Everybody returns except Mitchell Robinson, and Andre Drummond steps in as a close replacement, with 19.5 minutes, 6.4 points and 8.4 rebounds compared to Robinson's 19 minutes, 5.7 and 8.8 in 60 games. Karl-Anthony Towns and Miles McBride have extension talks on hold. I'm not thrilled about that, but it's a Kumbaya season in the Garden.

The core

Jalen Brunson put up 26 points, almost seven assists and three rebounds with a 58 true shooting and a plus 3.1 box plus-minus. His three-point shooting has slid from 40 percent down to 36.9, and his free throw rate dropped from .373 to .285, which needs to come back. He played 74 games last year and 65 the year before, so he's durable enough. His one weak number is his defensive box plus-minus, and that's exactly why the roster around him exists.

Towns scored 20 and grabbed almost 12 in 75 games, with a 61.9 true shooting, a 22 PER and .197 win shares per 48. His total rebound rate was 21.4, with a defensive rate of 31.7 and an offensive rate of 11.2. What I loved was the playoff version. The silly fouls went away, and he locked in on his defensive assignments. The question is whether he can carry that maturity through 82 games.

OG Anunoby will always be the man who tipped in the ball in game four of that comeback they had no business winning. Ben Stiller and Tracy Morgan were wandering around the Garden like they'd been through a fog of euphoria. People in New York will talk about that night for decades. In the regular season OG was pedestrian by his standards, 16.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in 67 games over 33 minutes, with 38.6 percent on six threes, a .620 true shooting, a 15.8 PER and .135 win shares per 48. In the playoffs his effective field goal percentage was 67.2, the highest in postseason history among players with 150 or more attempts.

Add Mikal Bridges, Miles McBride and Grand Theft Alvarado, plus a couple of rookies I'm excited to see, and you have a roster that can survive a championship hangover. If a team is going to avoid one, it's this one, because Brunson is unflappable.

The call

I'm taking the Knicks over 52.5 at 54 wins, and I think they come out of the East as the favorite again. The cupboard isn't bare either. They have three first-round picks to deal if something is missing. Do I think they repeat? We'll get there. At FRPC we don't hand you a Finals pick in October. We tell you who gets to the playoffs, and then we go series by series once the bracket is set. A long season means somebody gets hurt or somebody sulks about a contract. Even so, the roster, the leader and the open window all point the same direction.

The Atlantic at a Glance

Four overs, one under, and the Knicks on top. Here are my numbers as we discussed them on the show, worst to first.

I picked the Knicks over the Avengers in Philadelphia and over the Celtics, and I'll defend every number above.

What I'm watching between now and the trade deadline:

• Whether Kawhi Leonard reaches 65 games for Toronto.

• Whether the Sixers settle their usage problem before the new year.

• Whether Boston has another cost-cutting move coming, and what it means for Derrick White.

• Whether Brooklyn moves Porter or Randle in early February.

• How the Knicks handle the Towns and McBride extension talks.

Wrap-Up: Take This to the Group Chat

This episode ran long, and I'm fine with that because we had a lot of ground to cover. Boston fans, tell me how the cost-cutting feels over the next few months. I know a lot of you are giving the new owner a serious side-eye and wondering whether he's turning into John Henry. Sixers fans, I want your answer on Maxey. Knicks fans, enjoy this, because the banner hangs forever.

Find us on X at @frontrunnerpc and @Socially_FRPC, on YouTube at @FRPCVince, and on TikTok at FRPC Vince. Send questions and hot takes to frpcvince@gmail.com and your note might end up in The Dime Drop mailbag. Share this episode with the person in your group chat who needs it, then use these numbers to end the argument.

One last thing, same as always. The best part of you is you, not your record, your timeline or your algorithm. Surround yourself with people who give you light, and tell them you appreciate them today. Guard your peace like cap space. Anybody can yell a take, and defending a thought is the hard part. Until next time, keep your mind sharp and your circle tight. I'm Vince, and we're out.