The Transformation of Luka Dončić

it's friday actually it's late friday and you know what time it is. Front runner podcast collective is back on the air. I am your humble host, vince, and today's podcast we will be discussing the transformation of luka donchik and we will also be discussing what that actually means for the los angeles lakers. We are also going to talk about what is going on with these restrictive free agents, why this is such a problem, uh, why people aren't getting paid or understanding what their value is, and also what the front offices are saying about these type of situations and how cautious they have to be at this present time in this, uh, in this I would say, very tenuous state of what the nba is. So we have a ton to talk about. It's going to be very front office, just crazy. We're gonna get into a lot of a lot of things, what a lot of people said about this, and I'm really excited about it because this is the type of stuff that I like to get into more, get into the weeds more, and I think summertime is the perfect time to do it we will go ahead and get into that. It is a feel good friday, for sure, even though it is on the east coast. It's probably about 10 40 on the west coast. We still got sunlight. The sun's shining outside. I mean, it's going down but we still got it and the la la off the chain. So can't wait to talk about all of that. But before we get into the podcast, a couple things. One be a friend, tell a friend about the podcast, let people know you can get it on spotify, you can get it on apple or whatever podcast platform you choose to listen to. Frontrunner podcast collective is on there and it happens on tuesdays and Fridays. The other thing thank you to the massive amount of people that are listening to the podcast, from China, japan, australia, new Zealand, south America, north America, across the pond in Europe. It has been a whirlwind.

The numbers are so crazy and I am, um, I'm touched one when you do a podcast and you turn on a microphone. You know you hope I mean and if you are inclined to do so, which I am inclined to do so you pray that there are people out there who are listening to you, that the podcast is reaching people, and I wouldn't say you know droves or anything like that, but you hope that you reach some people and you hope that at some point. It will grow, which we are, and I couldn't be more happier. I am astonished by the word of mouth campaign that is going on and the audience really needs to take a bow on. This is really you guys have drove this. You drove the numbers up. You would drove what is, uh, good on this podcast, what is not good on this podcast. So everybody should take a bow, but we still need to continue that momentum. We need to continue to further the campaign of the frpc army. We need to collectively come together and lift our voices up and be heard. And again, many, many thanks to all the people out there who are listening to it and joining the NBA conversation, and I hope that we do you proud yet again today.

So, with that being said, let's get into our podcast. We are going to start in Los Angeles, california, and the reason why we're doing this is because we are maybe a day away, maybe possibly two days away, from Illinois, home of the Chicago Bulls, home of Michael Jordan, who used to put up bunches of points, bunches of championships, and Luka is trying to get a little bit of that Chicago style love right now. But also, what Luka is showing off is what we talked about last Friday, when I told you that Luka had lost 35 pounds, and then the picture started to come out. He was on Men's Health Magazine and then he did the Today Show and then the Instagram started to come out and you could see there was a drastic difference in what Luka looked like last game of the season and what he looks like now. First of all, we got great information, so we like to thank our sources Shouts out to Pat McAfee and his crew.

But it's not just the 35 pounds. To me, it what it represents, and what it represents is his commitment to being the baddest man on the planet. I think that this guy is going to interject himself into the mvp race where he I think you're going to see a renewed attitude of Luka Doncic in his second year as a Laker and you're going to see dominance. Maybe that we've not seen before, because I do want to preface this it was only a couple years ago that this dude was putting up like 34, 8 and 9 and leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA finals. He was runner up for the MVP then, and now you're talking about a guy who has dedicated himself to his conditioning and also you know what kind of mfr look at donchus is. You know what kind of competitor he is and you know he's petty. He is absolutely petty. So this wasn't a summer makeover. Donchus dropped 35 pounds like he was prepping for a title fight. So I'm telling you right now, whatever this is going to be, I cannot wait to watch it. So, way of note is this what stands out about Luka's transformation isn't the loss of weight, it's the sharpness of his footwork, because you know she be spying on the IG, she be on the internet trying to get as much information as we possibly can get, and she said that, you know, in this couple little exhibitions out there, he looks more spry, he looks quicker. I'm telling you right now that's bad news for a lot of people.

So let's talk MVP. We know who the MVP was last year. That was Shea Gilgis Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The numbers he puts up, the clutch performances he puts up, are absolutely electric and it led to an NBA championship. He was hoisting the Larry O'Brien, you know, in the plains of Oklahoma. Now look at stat line for somebody who was coming off a severe calf injury that inhibited him from playing. He only played like 50 games last year 28.2, 8.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists. That was his stats. That was his stats last year.

On shaky, I wouldn't even say just conditioning, because I don't think he could condition with the calf injury being the way it was. I think he babied that injury throughout the season. When he did play, I think he was um very careful in his movements and also in his cutting ability and what have you. And I think now, with what he has done, I think we're going to see an onslaught and we're going to see luca back to the plus 30 a game, the great passing, the rebounding and just him being a complete asshole to people. And I mean that in the best way possible, because he is competitive. That is all there is to this situation. He is monsterly competitive.

So what does this mean for the Lakers, what does this mean for LeBron James and what does this mean for the league? So let's get into that real quick. Luka is going to do something for LeBron that LeBron has been doing for everybody else his entire career One. He's going to make the game a lot easier for LeBron. And what I'm talking about with that? If, if LeBron embraces the role of a pick and roll four, he's gonna see easier buckets because, let's face it, lebron is an athletic freak. He's a genetic experiment that went wrong or right, however you want to look at it, because nobody is supposed to be 41 years of age and be able to be as quick, as fast, as explosive as he is now. Has he lost a step? 100%? But he's still pretty damn exclusive for somebody who's you know, touching 41. Remember, this will be year 23 for lebron ramon jane, and he can be a dominant power forward in this league.

How that's gonna happen is you're to have to go ahead and do some pick and roll. You'll be getting bumped while you're rolling or kicking out to the three point line. So pick and pop, you know, which then might send the defense into a complete frenzy. You go ahead and swing the ball around. Go ahead and swing the ball around. Maybe the ball comes back to you. There's gonna be thunderous dunks involved.

There's gonna be a lot of things going on when it comes to the lakers, but I would love to see the pick and roll between the between lebron james and luca donchage, a lot more this year. I want to see them spam that action as many times as possible. You know, decide which side of the court. You want to be on for this to happen and let's go ahead and get it going, because lebron and luca on the court you're talking about two guys who are, as far as, cerebrally, they're, the smartest guys usually on the court. Now you want to talk about Nicola Jokic and a couple other players, or whatever, about their basketball IQ. Okay, I will not fight you on that, but you will have to at least give me this Luka and LeBron would probably make up top six, maybe even top five. They're both in the top five as far as smartest player in the league, with LeBron probably being first because he calls out defenses and what have you. So I'm really interested to see how this all works and how this is going to go.

I think you're going to see a, a guy who is going to put up monster numbers, monster numbers from luca and then now allow lebron to kind of not take it easy, but I would say, less offensive low. You don't have to bring the ball up very often anymore, with having Luka and also having Austin Reeves on the court by your side for most of the time. So I will tell you right now this is going to look. If you liked it last year, you're going to love it this year. Here's where Luka's numbers in his state last year 45% from the field, remember high volume 36.8% from three point land. His free throw percentage was surprisingly low for me 78.2%. I think he'll bump that up to probably about 84%. 84 still. His effective field goal percentage was elite because he got to the foul line and what have you. But it wasn't just the numbers he's putting up, it's the promise of what he could give to the lakers, it's the imagination of what is out there for him. You know, like the old Kobe commercial More, more. I want more. We're going to get a lot more this year. So it might not necessarily be about the MVP, it might not necessarily be about the NBA's next era, but Luka to LA. This is about as excited as I've seen the fan base since Kobe Bryant. Now I understand.

When LeBron got here there was some excitement, like let's go, because we had been on such a downward spiral for a little while. Like I want. It was it six, seven years and, yes, they did win the title. But it was more of a murmur than it was a just an outright roar. But as soon as Luka came to the Los Angeles Lakers, there was a renewed sense of optimism. What else is possible, what else could happen? Who else could we get? Of course, we always have to thank Nico Harrison for the bang-up job he did, allowing Luka to come to Los Angeles. We thank him very, very Because it definitely reset our timeline For how good the Lakers are going to be For the next at least 8 years.

I will say this Whether it's tomorrow, the first night of SummerSlam, or if it's the second night Of SummerSlam, you will hear An eruption from Los Angeles. It might register on the richter scale and that will be when lucas signs his contract extension and the laker, laker nation, the laker loyal, loyal fan base, will just rise up and rejoice and party like nobody's business. So we wanted to get to that. We listen, I'm a laker fan. I'm definitely gonna rep my guys. Dude looks good. He's about to sign a extension with the lakers. We told you last week we believe that it's going to be a four-year contract. It's not going to be a four-year contract. It's not going to be the two-year contract and then the opt-out. We believe it's going to be a full four-year. Now I don't know if there's going to be language in there where he can have optionality to opt-out, but we shall see. I think what we're going to see is somewhere in the range of four years, 229 mil, and that's what we're gonna see is, for some, somewhere in the range of four years, 229 mil, and that's what we're looking at looks good. So let's keep on talking about money, shall we? I told everybody once about contract extensions and stuff like that.

What I want to talk about today is the curious case of Jonathan Kaminga, josh Giddey of the Chicago Bulls, quentin Grimes of the Philadelphia 76, giddy and Cam Thomas. I don't know why I forget Cam Thomas in Brooklyn, no clue. But we're going to talk about them and talk about some of the cases that are going on with them, because there's been a real stagnation in the movement of these restricted free agents, and I dove into this, I talked to a bunch of people and I think we have a actual answer for you. So what that's what this podcast is going to be about today is this restricted free agent. We're going to give you the latest news on all of the four guys and, again, the reason why I'm bringing this up is because some of your free agents out there are still waiting because of this, some of the other requisite moves that can happen are not happening because of this. So when you look at the gun state State Warriors, they were supposed to sign Al Horford by now. I think there was some rumor about Malcolm Brogdon. So there are things that are still left out there for things to be handled.

As far as the business aspect of the free agency period and we're now in August Usually all this stuff is wrapped up by like the last week of July. I would say pretty much the last time we spoke well, not the last time we spoke, but the Friday that we spoke that was probably about the time where everything should be taken care of. But I'm going to tell you right now and we've said it before and we'll continue to say it the new CBA and those apron rules even if you're near the tax, every mid to high eight figure slot is gold. So when you're talking about 30 to 33 million, that's roughly a fifth of your entire cap for the next season. It's one step below max. It's way too rich for just a mistake contract and owners and governors are calling gms into the office like hey, don't give out another 32 million dollar contract to a dude that is scoring 16 points, five, five rebounds and five assists. That is not a 32 million dollar dude, just like we always say. The price of the brick has gone up and we ain't giving out this money for free anymore.

And now this brings us to the curious cases of all these guys who are in this position. Josh giddy thought he would have a contract with the chicago bulls. They are haggling about pricing and what have you now? I've said in the past about the ryan's door they're super cheap. They are, but this has more to do with the cap and how you build out your roster than you actually think. I know there are a lot of fan bases out there. I know golden state, which their whole situation was squared away, and they knew they had al harford, they knew they had d anthony melton and whoever else they're bringing in. But again, what you sign jonathan kaminga for is going to tell you and dictate to you what you're signing al Horford for and what you're signing D'Anthony Melton for, and you would say, well, in Chicago, how's this work?

Well, again, I am sure that when Giddy ended the season In Chicago On the uptick that he did, I'm sure he was thinking to himself and his representatives were thinking to themselves hey, I played myself into a 25 to 28 million dollar Annual average value. I'm sure he was saying that, but the windows slammed shut. Every dollar up here is now A team building test and you can't splurge. If you need proof of the world changes or what have you, okinawa bobby mark's cap, uh explainer. Or, better yet, ask your team's cap guy how much he's sweating about this apron right now, because I'm telling you those cap dudes are super serious about this cba.

I remember when they first broke, I had a couple people reach out to me and said this is a hard cap. I don't care what they tell you, this is a hard cap. And I was like, no, no, they can't be. The the player representative wouldn't let this go down. Well, guess what? It's not a hard cap, but it's the closest thing we have to a hard cap. Do you want more? Do you want more evidence? I got it for you. Let's check in with Boston and see how they're doing.

Drew Holiday gone Now. They had how they're doing. Drew Holiday Gone Now. They had to make a decision Drew Holiday or Derek White. Well, derek White is staying because he's younger. Both in that range. Did they get banner 18 off that 100%? The money you invested in Drew Holiday Was money well spent, because it got you the 18th banner.

How about Jaden McDaniels of the Minnesota Timberwolves? He got his money. But you know why he got his money? Because the playoff sit now. He got it before this, but his playoff performance last year was the reason why he got the money. The way he's able to play defense, the way he is able to stifle your best offensive player, the way he's able to basically give you weak side rim protection and all that and also put up the points that he did, and all that and also put up the points that he did gives you an indication of that. He is not only just a two-way player. He's a two-way player of the highest level. Now the defensive prowess is way past the offensive prowess, but if he's able to give you 16 to 18 points every, every single game in playoff situations and then go out there and lock up the best dude on the other team or at least put him in a situation where he's gonna be way less efficient than he usually is. That's exactly why Jaden McDaniels got that money.

Og Ananobi, another guy who had a really impressive playoff situation. There were questions about OG Ananobi. What could he be? How much offense are you actually going to get? Can you trust him to be on the court? All those things were put to rest in New York City and we'll get to Mikikhail bridges later on in the podcast, trust me.

The next thing is that, yeah, you got to watch every penny if you're a team like oklahoma city, who seem to master the new financial reality of the new cba. They signed all their dudes, every last one of them shea got his money, jalen williams got his money and chet hungren got his money. But if you look at chet hunger's deal one, it's a little less than what jalen williams signed for. And also, there's no player opt-outs. There's no like, oh, I can, in two years I can opt out and get more money and what have you? No, this is what you are signing for.

Now let's flip it to the other side of the coin. Remember the tobias harris contract? How many people in philadelphia were pissed off at tobias harris because he would disappear in playoff series or in a high leverage regular season games where you know your seating was on the line. You know the old joke that ryan rossillo used to say is like oh, I was watching that game for an hour and didn't recognize that tobias harris was on the court. He was out there getting cardio.

Remember the money that chicago bull signed zach levine for? They had to overpay to bring damar derosen in to be kind of a credible unit, and then it kind of backfired with injuries and things of that nature, not for derosen but for levine and lonzo ball and what have you. So we talked about chicago what tuesday. We talked about how, how screwed up they are, about what's going on with their situation, and we'll get more into the giddy situation as we go along. How much did that set them back? You know, we're still trying to figure out if they're in a rebuild situation. Or are they in a situation where we're gonna build, we're gonna start from right here and kind of hopefully make some true moves and get ourselves into playoff contention a la the indiana pacers? How many years did those teams Tie up $30 million plus contract In the name of value?

So we talked about Derek White A little bit earlier. But this is the reason why he got his money. He can block shots At the rim. He's going to guard your best dude, or he and here's the thing he's versatile. He's six foot four with long ass arms and then he sits there and he's able to go a high level wing. He can guard some of your quicker guards and what have you? That's the type of person that is going to get paid because, also, he can get you buckets. He's a credible offensive threat and it's consistent.

Og and anobi we just talked about him. Look at what kind of credible offensive threat og and anobi was for the knicks last year. Remember when uh brunson went down and we were trying to figure out what the knicks were going to do without Jalen Brunson. Og Ananobi was able to put up 18-20, along with Carl Anthony Towns putting up the points that he was putting up. Note from Soraya Jaden McDaniels deal. The minute it was ink dry. You're paying for a two way upside and playoff switchability. If mcdaniel's levels up, it's a bargain. If not, minnesota fuels that mistake for three more seasons. We saw in this last playoff run he was ready to go. There were points where and edwards, his second dude in some of those playoff games was Jaden McDaniels.

We're gonna talk about some of the math and how it works. So your stars obviously are gonna get the max money. Now how that works is is that if you an all NBA player or you are a defensive player of the year or you're a MVP, you are getting 35% of what the cap is. That is just what it is at this point. That's what the collective bargaining agreement gives you. So that's what Shea got. That's what Shea Gilgis Alexander got from the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Now you're a bench specialist High level bench specialist. You're looking at anywhere between 10 to 20. Now, if you're high level, you're absolute flamethrower coming off the bench. You're probably looking closer to like 18. That's what you're looking at. And then you got your rookie deals. And then you got your bargain vets. But that third I would say even I'll go a little bit even further it's that 25 to 33 million dollar range. People are more comfortable with that 25 million dollar range. It's that 33 million dollar range that people have a problem with. Million dollar range. It's that 33 million dollar range that people have a problem with and usually that is bestowed to your third piece. That slot is to be a two-way playoff weapon or you are absolutely cooked. Here's the thing. Usually, that dude is your on-off clutch time dude. This dude is providing productivity on the offensive end.

Most of the final teams saw their $30 million guy spike the win probability, not just maintain it. Only two teams in the last six years have had the conference finals with a dead money $30 million slot. Both got bounced. You can't just trade away that situation anymore. And then with the new cva, the contracts isn't there, aren't as flexible as they used to be. There's not a lot of teams that are sitting there going you know what. We'll take that bad contract for you. We'll go ahead, take that, even if you give up draft picks. They don't want to take it. You're looking at that situation going well, what the hell? What the hell is that? Why is that happening? Not great, not great, bob.

We pulled this line from the athletic article. Ownership was tired of paying 30 million dollars for vibes. If I'm writing a check, I want to see conference finals, not just good pr. If your third highest paid guy can't at least pretend to swing a series, your team is not serious. As far as a contender is concerned, once the owner feels burned by on a big deal, it's twice as hard to get him to green light. The next one. That's not just a theory. That's what front offices are saying. Execs 100 either hired, fired, extended, called geniuses or whatever the case may be. Here's what ownership is really saying behind closed doors. If I'm writing the check for 32 million dollars for player x, he better swing this playoff series, cover our stars flaws or be the best at his role period. If he's just pretty good, we're not burning cash for that unless you're in phoenix. We're burning my willingness to spin for the next piece. That's what we're doing.

One front office executive that I talked to and I'll say it's in the eastern conference he said we had to tell ownership if we can't be a third option, a third option on a contender were not signing the cva, closed the all the loopholes. And what they mean by closing on loopholes is this is that, if you notice, the boston celtics got themselves out of the second apron and I'm telling you right now my guy, anthony hart, anthony simons, he hasn't really got with a like a real estate person in boston yet because there is no guarantee that he's going to stay. I'm just telling you what I know. I'm not saying that he is going to be jettisoned off anytime very soon. I don't know if he's part of some of these deals that are being held up by some of these restricted dudes. But I do know this. He's not in a situation where he feels like, oh, I'm gonna be here at least this year, so let me go ahead and sit down, put down roots. So here's the challenge. Can your third guy be your best player for two weeks? If not, he better be an elite glue guy who erases your stars blind spots.

As one scout said, don't pay 32 million dollars for a guy who can't be trusted defensively in crunch time. That money has has to close games, not just fill space. Remember again. Remember tobias harris. A couple years ago, tobias harris went to detroit. I think he got 26 million now still pretty high for what tobias harris is. But a couple years ago, when he was on philadelphia, he was making 42 43 million dollars. And 42 43 million dollars for tobias harris was an absolute overpay. And here's the best card. Go back in history why here's? Here's what it cost the Philadelphia 76ers. Remember when Tobias signed that contract? It was between him and Jimmy Butler, and that's where your sliding doors start to come into play.

What do the 76ers look like with Jimmy Butler? That looks like a completely different team, right? I'm just getting what some of our people in front offices and scouts are saying about how the cat works we talked about. You know whether he's going to be able to take over for two weeks or not? Um, here's, oh sorry, a great note. If he's overpaid by five million dollars and still swings a series or covers, um, a real need, then the answer isn't yes, it's at least two. Your team is not built to last period because the turnover, because here's the other thing. With this, if you're in that second apron, your ability to sign the mid-level exception goes away. The ability to sign the taxpayer mid-level goes away. Oh, you can't stack up contracts to get to trade a player, to trade for a player.

So let's say, for some reason you were trying to think okay, phoenix, perfect example of this situation. So phoenix, for years, was sitting there like I don't care about the cba, I don't care. Matt ishmael was like we will spend as much money as I possibly can to put a winner here in phoenix when they wanted to go ahead and make a trade with somebody. Now, they didn't have a lot of assets and things of that nature, I'm. But I'm going to give you like a more utopian situation. Let's say they had assets. Let's say they had first round picks, and whatever the case may be, well, it was plain to see that the phoenix suns needed a point guard. They probably needed a big to round out their team, okay. So now let's say they wanted to make a run at nick claxton. If they are above the second apron, they weren't able to take Royce O'Neal and a couple other lesser known players on their team and stack up $22 million for Nick Claxton because it was prohibited by the second apron. Atlanta couldn't get off John Collins' contract fast enough, bro. They could not get off that contract fast enough.

Milwaukee, they said oh well, we need more offense out of Drew Holiday. He's not worth the money he's getting paid and he needs a new contract, whatever the case may be. What did they do? And he needs a new contract, whatever case may be, what did they do? They shift him off to portland and portland jettisoned him off to the boston celtics and now he's back in portland. This is over like a three-year period. Drew holiday is a respected nba player, a respected vet, a winner, somebody who is beloved in the locker room, somebody who is just a model citizen. This is not a troublemaker. This is not a guy who's going to bring blues to your locker room or anything like that. He is a community guy. He's gonna be great in the community, great in the community. And yet again, drew holliday has gone from milwaukee to portland, to boston and then back to portland again, and it doesn't have anything to do with his skills, it doesn't have anything to do with his attitude, it has to do with his salary.

A central division scout said on Derek White elite help defenders never overwhelm by the moment and can swing a playoff game even if they only take 8 shots. That's $30 million well spent. The well, yeah, the southwest. This was a scout, said this og and anovie risky. But when he locked up opposing wings and hit corner threes, you saw why new york paid this guy. But if his shot goes cold, suddenly the contract looks very bad. Be careful of where you spend this money, be careful. So what does this all mean, or whatever? Well, I'll tell you what it all means. Let's take a look at oklahoma city for a second.

Oklahoma city's front office didn't just build a fun team, they built the model for how you are supposed to handle what a $30 million slot looks like in the new CBA. You got, say, gilgis Alexander as your alpha. You got Jalen Williams as your Swiss Army Knife second star. And then you got Chet Holmgren, and the reason why he got paid is this then you got chet hongren, and the reason why he got paid is this tell me how many seven foot one dudes out there who can handle the rock, provide elite, uh, weak side rim protection, um, get you 16 to 18 points a game and also be able to lock up dudes on the perimeter and also help out on the big. That is probably like trying to terrorize isaiah hartenstein. I'll have a sip of coffee while you think that over. There's not a lot of people out there in the world that's doing that. And here's the other thing chet hungren's only 23 years of age. So what are we talking about right now? We're talking about somebody who still is on the upswing. His development has not hit its actual like zenith yet. So we're going to get more production. We're going to get better understanding of the offense and the defense. We're going to get a more fleshed out skill set from Chet Holmgren, fleshed out skill set from chet hungren.

To pay somebody like chet isn't one of those situations where you're sitting there going well, this is super risky. No, the only risk is that if he gets injured and can't play, that's it. You don't have to take my word for it. I heard it from Pacific Division executives this week the Thunder balance sheet is impressive as a win total. If you're not reserving your third, biggest slot for a guy like Holmgren, you're already losing ground. That's not just respect, that's fear, because when you look at this team, you're like damn what, what are we gonna do? Chet isn't just unique, he's scalable, he's gonna get better.

A southeast uh, southwest division scout said this elite rim protection space coverage doesn't need touches. Fits with your league star. That's exactly what you need in May, not just October. Think about how many teams can say that, about their third option who can block a shot, run the floor and knock down a three without hijacking the offense? Yeah, how many dudes? Oh, let's start talking about him. What's the rhetoric coming out of jonathan kamika's camp? Oh, I was poorly developed. What's the rhetoric coming out of cam thomas's camp? Oh, I am better than uh isaiah quickly, rj barrett and a couple other dudes and I get buckets. That's what you want from your third guy is somebody who's just out there, constantly talking, constantly talking constantly. I'm griping about something. I think the Chet Holmgren contract was genius.

Ok, see is below the second acre. It still gives them flexibility and it doesn't overlap with SGA or Jalen Williams. Most teams pay for points. Okc is about to pay for versatility and playoff proofing. What separates their GM from square does a spreadsheet jockey, is this there's no wasted overlap, there's no max redundancy.

If you look at what OKC is put together, they have a on-ball initiator who operates the offense, and that's Shea Gilgis Alexander. He's their offensive engine. What is Jalen Williams? Oh, he's your second side initiator who can also take over the offensive reigns when Shea Gilgis Alexander is sitting down. Boom, brilliant.

So then what do you get with Chet? Again, we told you he spreads the floor, he protects the rim, he gives the blues to other wing offensive wing players because he's seven foot one and has a seven foot seven to seven foot eight wingspan. So good luck getting a shot over him. By the way, he's the one dude that doesn't seem to be scared of victor. When wyama absolutely hates this dude absolutely cannot stand him in a more in a competitive way, you know, saying he? I don't think he hates him, I just think he is saying I don't sweat you. I'm not scared of you and we're gonna beat your ass every time we see you. It's the perfect situation now.

The contrast to the restricted group was this let's get real with the whole situation, with these restricted free agents. Josh giddy is a great playmaker. Well, who is he guarding? Who is josh giddy guarding? Who is Josh Giddy guarding? He's not a great defender, by the way. He's never shot better than 33.6% from three, and this is your primary on ball initiator. Now.

Jonathan Kaminga all the tools in the world hasn't proven a lick yet as a playoff third option. He will tell you that he just hasn't had the opportunities. I will tell you that he doesn't rebound as well and his defense is porous. Thomas can score, but can he close a playoff series With him as your third best guy? Not, unless you have. Not unless you love roulette. The point Is that a 30 million dollar slot Is for real, scalable Playoff pieces, not babies, not. Well, someday, you know, if we squint hard enough and we kind of do this and this and this and then move the moon, mars and venus all aligned in a certain way, then this dude is going to be definitely your third dude again.

Chet has already got a championship underneath his belt. He was a key cog to what went down in Oklahoma City and he's getting better. He's getting better. What he looks like now. And then you check back in two years, what is he going to look like? How many points is he going to be able to produce? How many shots is he going to deny at the rim? Who's he guarding at that point in time?

The bottom line is is that oklahoma city is teaching the league what it is to buy a third option slot? A northwest division staffer said it best the new cva is not forgiving. If you miss on that 30 million dollar slot, you're boxed in, you hit and you're a contender. Chet is the new standard buyer. Beware for everyone else. I know we're getting a lot of love to, okay, see, but they're the standard bearer of what this situation looks like. You know and we needed to get to this, we've been talking about the cva for two years how punitive it is to be in these situations when you don't have all these options at your disposal. It's not just coming from me. This is coming from people who work in the league. So, with that being said, we have told you about what is going on, okay.

So let's get into some of these aspects of what's going on with some of these restricted free agents and let you know the very latest of where we stand. First and foremost, let's go ahead and talk about cam thomas. Cam thomas is talking about I want 27 million dollars, okay. So let's start there. Cam thomas is a six foot three more of a two guard than a than a one, and when I say that, I mean that in that's not even a respectful tone. I mean one of the biggest things that we joke about every year when it comes to cam thomas here with frpc is what do you think the over under is on his assist total tonight? Is it going to be two? Is it going to be three?

He doesn't look for players, he doesn't look for people, and is he an elite on-ball scorer that can generate points and bunches? Yeah, his limitations are this he's a black hole defensive issues. He only played 25 games last year. How is somebody like that can sit there and honestly talk about I want $27 million when you played 25 games last year? Yeah, your points per game pile up, but it's on a bad team. It's on the team that's winning less than 20 games. His off ball play is lazy, his decision making is poor and his passing lags behind.

Here's what one scout told me about his playoff scalability. Said this said he can be hunted on d. He's not the player you trust in crunch time versus elite teams. He's a six-man gunner. Is his best role on a playoff team? Do you pay that 30 million dollars or 27 million dollars, like I was told? It's a massive overreach. He should be somewhere into the 12 to 20 million dollar range. That's a more reasonable uh for his archetype, okay.

So let's go to Quentin Grimes. What's going on with our guy Quentin Grimes in Philadelphia? Well, first of all, he's 25 years of age, okay. Second thing is this Is that he is an absolute versatile defender. He's a plug and play 3 and D great motor Fits next to stars. Here's some of the limitations On broad creation. He can't self-generate offense at a high level.

What are the playoffs? Mostly, the one thing that we always talk about with the playoffs is that do you have a counter to your counter? You need to be a problem solver in the playoffs and these teams get to scout you and they get to know your tendencies and they know, okay, if you step your right foot out a little bit, you're going to drive to the hole. If you take a step more back, then you're going to kind of do like a two dribble and then pull up and shoot. That's the level of intention that goes on in the scouting. When we get to playoff time, your first move will be dissected. It will be looked at. It will be okay, this is how we're gonna, this is how we're gonna play this, and then it's gonna be up to you to make the adjustment.

So is he a role player? Does his archetype command 30 million dollars or 25 million dollars? He absolutely helps the team win, quitting grimes, but as a four or five piece, not a third option. Valuable as a starter or first guard off the bench, but he's in the 12 to 17 million dollar range. That's the right tier for him.

Let's go to Giddy. Right, let's talk about josh giddy. Real quick, elite passer. His vision is absolutely on par with some of the better guards of the game. His rebounding from for a guard if you want to call him that because he's 6'7, about 225 pounds is elite. His shot is improving. Okay, now let's get to some of the things that we have to kind of worry about. When we talk about Josh Giddey, his defense is a persistent issue at the playoff level. One of the reasons why Oklahoma City not this offseason but last offseason decided to trade Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso. They played Giddey off the court in OKC in the playoffs. Okay, he got literal no time when it came down to the comedown when they played the dallas mavericks because you know who was hunting him oh, luca donchage when he was with the mavericks. Again, we thank nico harrison and the dallas mavericks for giving us luca to the los angeles lakers. Thank you, nico, we appreciate you, my guy.

Josh giddy's off-ball value is questionable because he can't reliably, because we're talking about his shot is improving. It's still not consistent enough where we can sit there and go man, he's a real problem and we need to get out to him very quickly when he's beyond that three point line he produced. He produced in the second half of last year, but one scout said to me like this we need to see it again because if this is real, then yeah, absolutely, he is somebody who is going to get played somewhere in between 23 to 28 million dollars a year. But that also depends on the shot becoming more and more consistent. He needs to continue to work on that three-point shot and it needs to become more of a weapon for him. It will also open up more of his passing lanes and it will open up his drives again.

They talked about his defense defenses, or his his. They talked about his defense. They said teams target him on d. Also, he struggles when off ball, when he's not the primary dude or the second secondary scorer for before contender. He absolutely struggles at this situation. At best he's a quality connector initiator on a good team, not a third option if you want to win deep into the playoffs. We have him as a 15 to 20 million dollar annual average value range, but his skill set right now does not justify 30 million or 27 million or whatever the case may be. It just doesn't.

And that leaves our last guy, jonathan kaminga. Let's tell you what's going on with jonathan kaminga right now. First of all, I think the salary situation has been rectified. Sources are telling us it looks like sacramento wants them and they're willing to go ahead and give up assets for them. What we have heard is that is malik monk. Now, if you listen to a lot of people, they they have this out there. I'm not telling stories or anything like that, it's out there. So it's Malik Monk and a 20-30 first round pick that has protections on it and basically, if those protections are not reached, then it becomes a 20-31 first round pick.

And that is right now where the bone of contention is between the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings. I think that Jonathan Kaminga will be a king at some point. If he's not today, today is damn near over. It will happen within the next five days. But what they're basically haggling and arguing about is what that first round pick looks like. Golden State Warriors want a unprotected first round pick. Sacramento will say are you high? Are you on dope? Because we are not giving you that. Is there some wiggle room here? Is there some room for negotiation? There's always room for negotiation. You just got to have an open mind, you know clear heart and you can get this squared away. But basically what it comes down to is this is that probably you need to meet in the middle. A unprotected first round pick golden state's not going to get a a quick that sacramento is basically winning that situation they're not going to get. So what you need to find out is can we make this pick protected in between 10 to 14. If the pick can be protected between 10 and 14 and we can agree upon that, jonathan kaminga is a sacramento king. He can start lighting the beam right now. But they got to get that squared away. Jonathan kamiga wants a big payday. He turned down a two year, 45 million dollar contract. So that tells you one thing, right that tells you that they were willing to give him a little bit over 20 million 22.5 to be exact.

What are Jonathan Kaminga's strengths? He's an elite athlete, a freaky, freaky, twitchy athlete. He has flashes of switchable defense. Because he's a freaky athlete, he can move his damn feet very quick. For somebody who is 6, 7, 222 pounds, this dude is absolutely electric when it comes to his movement and his uh smoothness. When it comes to his movement, he can finish in transition, he can go through contact. He can play with a high ceiling of physicality.

Well, what are some of the issues of Jonathan Kaminga? Steve Kerr said hey, can this dude rebound At 6'7", 222 pounds? Can you rebound my guy? Because we kind of need that Also for as freaky of an athlete as you are, are you holding down some of the better wings that are in the league. Because we have not seen that yet. We have not seen Jonathan Kaminga pick up his playoff or his defensive vitality at all, which would be so tremendous in the playoffs. The reason that Jonathan Kaminga played in the playoffs this year is because Steph Curry got hurt. If Steph doesn't get hurt, that dude was not playing. Because Steve Curry has had enough Enough.

Like there is no way that Jonathan Kaminga is coming back to the Golden State Warriors. There's no way. So you want to talk about playoff scalability? That's what somebody said to me. He's still raw, could develop into a key piece, but nowhere near a third option as of right now. More likely more of a fourth or fifth starter or energy big wing off the bench Develop him. But $30 million is an absolute gamble and a complete overpay based on his current resume. This is a scout, somebody who does this for a living. This is what they're saying about Jonathan Kaminga. Is he worth $21 million? Maybe He'll have to score at a high level, which I think he will If he's given the opportunities. But good luck.

You're on a team with zach levine, damar de rosen and demontis sabonis, so guess what you're looking at, what they say he was. Oh, they said most likely a fourth or fifth starter or an energy big wing off the bench. Well, guess what if you got demar de rosen? You got zach levine. You got, uh, keegan murray who you are hoping that turns into something still and you got seronis, you got all these dudes.

Where does jonathan kaminga fit in now? I know that they would try to get off demar derozan's contract or whatever the case may be. I understand that. So, yes, he would. He would garner a starting role with the sacramento kings, no doubt, but that still would make him the fourth option on at at best. At best, if everything works out, he would be the third option just out of. You know whoever's left on the team, and what I'm meaning by that is that if malik monk is still on this team or damar de rosen is still on this team, johnson kaminga is the fourth option. Jonathan Kaminga is the fourth option because Damaris Savonis is the offensive hub, zach Levine is going to put up a bunch of shots and if DeMar DeRozan is there, he's a more consistent bucket getter than Jonathan Kaminga at this present time.

With time, with development, he's still 22 years of age, or 23 years of age, or whatever the case may be, can he develop into With development? He's still 22 years of age, or 23 years of age, or whatever the case may be. Can he develop into something better? Can he develop into something more consistent? No doubt, but he will have to play defense.

And also, here's a little clue for Jonathan Kaminka If you rebound the basketball with your athleticism, your raw power, you could take the ball off the glass, dribble it down the court and then, because of your teammates, maybe nonchalant nonchalantness on the off, on the defense or on the offensive end getting up the court. If you beat them up the court, you can probably go ahead and take the shot. So if you're looking for more opportunities, the best way to get opportunities is to take it off the glass yourself. Again, johnson kaminga hasn't been a great rebounder. He has not shown that as being part of his game. But that's where we are. That's where we are with all the restricteds.

But I wanted to make sure that this audience was locked in on why these guys aren't getting signed as quickly as they normally have signed as quickly as they normally have usually. Oh, these dudes are signed probably, I would say, anywhere between july 13th to july 23rd. These dudes would have been signed in the old cba. But due to the new reality and how you have to be a little more cognitive of your roster build and how the money works for you, you can't, you can't overpay, you can't overpay. If you overpay, you're going to be in a situation where you are stuck, and it's not good.

Look at what phoenix had to do. Kevin durant is gone. They had to go ahead and wave and stretch bradley bill just to get underneath the the second apron because matt ispia finally took the knee. He was like we can't, there's you know. He was like, well, there's something we can do. No, there was nothing they could do. The second apron is 100% restrictive. It doesn't have give. There's no little wiggle room where you can weasel your way out of this. So he went underneath the second apron and he paid a cost. He is literally paying bradley bill to not play for him. Bradley bill is in his same division.

Still, he's gonna play for the clippers. He's getting like two years, 11 million dollars. He's not getting a lot of money in uh la, but he getting a lot of money from the phoenix suns because, even though they waved and stretched him out, he's seeing, though he's seeing some of those dollars. He's seeing a lot of those dollars. I think he only gave back like 15 million of a possible 114. So my man is still gonna make like 99 million dollars over the next five seasons.

And, by the way, one of the reasons why it took so long for because that thing was rumored to go on one of the reasons why it took so long for him to go ahead and do the buyout was because there was a lump sum payment of 25 percent of his salary for the upcoming year that was going to be given to him, like on july, I want to say. Third, it was, yes, july 3rd. So then once that was paid, oh, he was ready to go. Hey, I'm ready to go ahead and do the wave and all that yep, absolutely I will go ahead. And you know, move my no trade clause Along For you and I'm ready to go on To Los Angeles and be a Clipper and play with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.

So look at what the Gymnastics that Matt Ishbia had to do To get off of this salary and to get his team underneath this second acre. Because he knew how restrictive it was, he knew how punitive it was, and that is where we are Overpaying for regular season stats and not proving playoff impact. Death knell Tying up vital flexibility in your cap for a non-scalable, non-tradable assets. Death knell to your roster build, risking future team building for a player who may be a five to seven piece on a real contender and you massively overpaid him will get your executive fired, will get your whatever your president or vp or player personnel fired. These are things that people in the league have said. This is not just me just blowing smoke out my ass. This is what actual people have said in the league. That's the reason for the restricted free agents not being signed, because we are being fiscally responsible in the nba and massive overpays are over.

I'd like to thank serea. I'd like to thank uh maya. I'd like to thank the entire frpc crew for uh getting all this information for us and and really providing some of the the color for this particular podcast. Uh, I think it was very, very important for people to hear because I'm sure, when you're talking about your team right now and yeah, it might not be a big move or whatever the case may be it might be a real small move, but a lot of the, a lot of the restrictions or a lot of the things that are kind of stuck right now probably have a lot to do with these restrictor free agents and where they're actually going to land again. Al horford should have been a uh go, stay warrior like two weeks ago. He's not because of the jonathan comingo situation. I have no idea if philadelphia has anything up their sleeve other than the Quentin Grimes thing, but I would be thoughtful to think that maybe they have something kind of cooking on the auxiliary burner after they finalize what they're going to pay Quentin Grimes and they have some actual salary certainty when it comes to him. Now I don't know what chicago's has planned other than josh giddy, but they're damn sure gonna make sure they're not paying that dude like 27 million dollars. That is damn sure they're not going to do that.

So again I'd like to thank my crew for helping me out to provide this particular podcast for you. I think it was super important. I think when we learn things on this podcast, when we are able to give out and disseminate this kind of information, I think it makes for you guys to have better conversations with your friends about what goes on in the inner workings of the NBA, about what goes on in the inner workings of the nba. I think is enlightening to us because we get to hear real talk when it comes to these players and it's like really antiseptic, it's really like at the crux of it and I love it. So I learned something today. I hope you guys have learned something. And again, uh, be a friend and tell a friend about the podcast. Tell them about frontrunner at frontrunner pc on twitter. Uh, at rea, underscore fudge frpc on twitter. Please engage with us, please send us little notes or whatever how we can improve the podcast for you. We hope to cater to some of your needs down the road.

The other thing I want to say is this the best part of you is you make sure that the people that surround you are supportive, they are uplifting, they are able to really just put your mind at ease about you, can go out and do your thing and be very, very successful at what you do. I am blessed to have an incredible wife who is supportive throughout what I do. She puts up with me, sometimes not spending time with her so I can get this stuff done. I am incredibly Blessed. But the one thing about that is Acknowledge those people who are supportive to you, be appreciative Of the people who are Champion your causes, who are able to listen to you and what have you. Make sure they feel supported. And if you're doing all that, you're a first round draft pick in my book and we are glad to have you and there's always a chair for you here at frontrunner podcast collective.

So, with that being said, you guys have a great weekend. I'm gonna watch a bunch of summer slam. You know, I'm saying night one, night two, definitely. I'm gonna be on the phone trying to figure out what the hell is going on with these restricted free agents and hopefully by tuesday we have some damn answers for you other than what we have right now, and if not, we'll have another kick-ass podcast for you as well. So don't worry about that, I will always come up with something. So, with that being said, we can get up out of here again. Enjoy your weekend and we will see you on tuesday. Deuces, thank you.