NBA’s Top 25 Under 25, Jamal Murray’s Mega Extension, and Southeast Division Over/Under Pseudo Predictions

[00:00:13] It's Monday. You know what time it is. Front Runner Podcast Collective is back on the air.

[00:00:19] I am your humble host, Vince, and we are jam packed today. Welcome to the show.

[00:00:27] We're going to be talking about our series that we have been doing over the summer, the Top 25, 25, and Under.

[00:00:36] We're going to be focusing in on number 10 and number 9 today.

[00:00:42] It's going to be some guys and some teams that don't get a lot of love in the national media.

[00:00:48] So we're going to go ahead and focus in on them.

[00:00:51] The other thing that we're going to talk about is the Denver Nuggets and Jamal Murray coming on and agreeing to an extension.

[00:00:59] And what ramifications does that hold for the Nuggets?

[00:01:05] How does everybody see the team and things of that nature?

[00:01:09] And then we're going to finish it up with a little futures.

[00:01:13] Okay, so far better is out there.

[00:01:16] And for guys who are just interested in the team and what have you,

[00:01:20] we can go in and do pre-camp observations and what have you giving you a little taste and feel.

[00:01:26] Now what we're going to do is give you divisions.

[00:01:30] So we're going to start off with the Southeastern Division today,

[00:01:35] and then we're going to move along and continue to work through the divisions leading up to training camp

[00:01:42] and then into pre-season games and then getting observations on what we're seeing there.

[00:01:47] So that is the plan for today.

[00:01:51] So let's get into the socials.

[00:01:54] X at frontrunner PC also hit the producers up at Rea underscore bunch FRPC.

[00:02:04] We are a great follow, not because of the fact that we just continue to kill you with all kinds of crazy stuff.

[00:02:13] But funny there's some interesting takes in there.

[00:02:17] I think the two producers get into Venmo fights about stuff.

[00:02:22] So it's great.

[00:02:23] And then the other things is that try and build the community.

[00:02:27] Your participation with us on Twitter or X, however you want to call it is outstanding to us.

[00:02:36] And then it helps produce the show because the more ideas you have,

[00:02:41] they'll manifest themselves onto the show.

[00:02:43] The other thing is go to YouTube.

[00:02:46] There'll be a lot of videos dropping this week.

[00:02:48] We have some technical difficulties with the laptop.

[00:02:52] So my apologies on that, but we will be inundating you with videos throughout the week.

[00:02:58] So look forward to those.

[00:03:00] And then last but not least, we are still on the crusade of be a friend, tell a friend,

[00:03:07] make sure you're letting people know about the podcast.

[00:03:10] Even though football is here, we gotten through the first week of football shots out to the Rams.

[00:03:18] Even though they lost it wasn't fine performance.

[00:03:21] Detroit looks for real.

[00:03:22] That's where I can leave it with that.

[00:03:25] But we will never leave you Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

[00:03:28] It's going to be hoops.

[00:03:30] It's going to be the NBA.

[00:03:31] It's going to be the things that you love and that you need so you can be more informed as you start to look at your team.

[00:03:39] Once we get into media day and then training camp and preseason basketball.

[00:03:46] So that's what we are here to do for you.

[00:03:48] So make sure you are still focused on being a friend and telling a friend helps us out.

[00:03:56] We were four or five months, four months in a row.

[00:04:00] Most downloads for this podcast.

[00:04:04] Those are great.

[00:04:05] Now we got to continue to be better.

[00:04:07] This is kind of like a Pat Riley podcast.

[00:04:11] We always striving for better.

[00:04:13] Hey man, got to have a little funny with it.

[00:04:16] So now we're going to get into our segments and we're going to start here.

[00:04:20] And this is the NBA's top 25, 25 and under.

[00:04:23] And the first person that we are going to talk about is we're going to talk about Darius Garland.

[00:04:32] Darius Garland is coming off good season.

[00:04:35] Injuries, I plagued it.

[00:04:37] He lost some weight.

[00:04:39] There was a broken jaw.

[00:04:40] So two years in a row we had what was a knee injury previous and then he had a broken jaw.

[00:04:49] So he lost 20 pounds and he just wasn't like himself but he's still a absolute talent.

[00:05:01] He's still electrifying.

[00:05:04] We love Darius Garland.

[00:05:05] His true shooting percentage is 58.8 which is remarkable for a player with his usage rate of 27.4%.

[00:05:14] This is what Zach Lowe said about our guy, Deris Garland.

[00:05:19] Garland's offensive upside is off the charts.

[00:05:22] His ability to create off the dribble, his vision in the pick and roll and his nag for hitting tough shots

[00:05:29] reminds me of a young Chris Paul.

[00:05:32] What's more impressive is how he's adapted to playing alongside Donovan Mitchell without losing his effectiveness as a playmaker.

[00:05:41] The one thing I will say about that is that I think there is maybe some troops in there and there might be some lies in there.

[00:05:50] I think that Darius Garland has found his way even though he is with a Dominic Ball handler in Donovan Mitchell.

[00:06:01] I am still skeptical whether this ultimately works.

[00:06:07] Now you can tell me all the time about Donovan Mitchell's wingspan that he's closer to a real wing because he has a 6'11 wingspan.

[00:06:18] That's all well and good.

[00:06:19] We still don't see a point of attack defender with the Cleveland Cavaliers on starting unit.

[00:06:28] That's a lot of pressure to put on Jared Allen and also our guy Evan Mobley who we just, you know, we've been talking about Evan Mobley forever.

[00:06:39] And when is he going to make his steps up?

[00:06:42] But I do agree that Darius Garland's offensive firepower and weaponry makes Cleveland a really hard guard.

[00:06:55] It makes them extremely difficult to gain plan 4 and if you're coming off back to backs then forget about it.

[00:07:03] This is a team that you would want to avoid if you can possibly do it.

[00:07:10] Now while Garland's numbers are offensively dazzling, the defensive limitations persist.

[00:07:18] His defensive box plus minus is a negative 1.2, highlights his struggles on that end.

[00:07:25] However, Cleveland's system led by Jared Allen and Evan Mobley have allowed Garland to focus his strengths on offense.

[00:07:33] Now I will say again and let's listen to what a scout had to say about this.

[00:07:40] Garland's size will always be a concern defensively but Cleveland has built a roster that hides his weaknesses.

[00:07:48] His next big leap will be improving his off-ball defense and using his quickness to jump passing lanes.

[00:07:54] I wonder if we were headed there with the last couple years where we've had a abrupt start with the injuries and what have you.

[00:08:01] Some of these injuries have been freaky like weird ones. This is not a guy we sit here and go oh damn he's injury prone.

[00:08:09] This sucks. We don't know if he's going to live up to his potential.

[00:08:13] I think these were just like real freak accidents and I would like to see now that he's played with Donovan Mitchell even though there have been abrupt endings in the two years that they've kind of played together.

[00:08:29] I would still think that in year three with all the games they played with all the practices they've gone through being able to talk on the road, being able to bond.

[00:08:42] They would have a better continuity this year going in and they would be more confident in what they could do prior to what maybe teams that are trying to get together could do.

[00:08:54] Now this all changes because Kenny Atkinson comes in. Now if Kenny Atkinson is coming in as a head coach and changing the system as far as defense is concerned would you know that is going to happen?

[00:09:10] What kind of comfort or ability level does Donovan Darius Garling have then?

[00:09:16] Now they had a system. It wasn't completely awesome and I am sitting here thinking that now you have somebody who maybe can say okay maybe we don't ask 100% of the defense on them but they have to give us at least give us 84.

[00:09:42] Maybe there is some sort of scheme that Kenny Atkinson can come up with that can hide both guards as far as siren and bring out the usage of Evan Mobley and use that link as a weapon on more of a point of attack defender.

[00:10:00] These might be all things that are tried and let it out through the season so I am looking for them to have some, I wouldn't say struggles because that offense is so potent but I do think that we will see them maybe have a couple of clunkers in there this year that maybe they didn't along the way last year.

[00:10:24] So keep a lookout for that in the early part of the season just the basically acclimation to the new principles on offense and defense. I am sure there are going to be some new wrinkles and things of that nature and it might take us a second to work out and iron out.

[00:10:43] Now despite the defense of concerns Garland has exceeded expectations as a former fifth overall pick according to sources from the Cavs from office. The organization views Garland as a long term leader, their back court or their back court someone that can potentially push them into deep playoff runs.

[00:11:08] So that's the thing we want to talk about here too is the development. You can say in two forms Donovan Mitchell helped and hurt the development of Darius Garland right? You can say he helped it because it took pressure off Darius on being that primary scorer and trying to find his roots as an offensive distributor.

[00:11:33] He is a point guard. He has scoring in his DNA and he can turn that on at any point in time. The scoring is just there but his level as an actual point guard being able to orchestrate an offense definitely has improved over the years.

[00:11:52] So it's brought more value to him as a player. His efficiency numbers are off the charts because of it and also he's a joy to play with because he's not Mr. Hey I'm going to take a bunch of shots and yeah you go stand in the corner.

[00:12:07] Not a shot just throwing it out there. People like playing with Darius Garland. I've been told these are the things that we need to discuss right because this is the development part. Did it hurt? Or did it help? Because here's the other thing.

[00:12:27] There have been bumps in the road. There have been times where there have been frustrations. We reported on this podcast that there was some we didn't know if they were going to split them up over the summer.

[00:12:39] Then we were told at the end of August you guys are idiots because we were never splitting them up blah blah blah. We have no thoughts of doing something like that. And again the concerns that this podcast is brought up in other podcasts.

[00:12:53] If you listen to Zach Lowe, if you listen to the mismatch with Chris Vernon and my guy Kevin O'Connor. We all talk about the diminutive nature of that point guard and backcourt situation with Donovan Mitchell.

[00:13:11] Darren's Garland and Donovan Mitchell are short. And they don't fight over screens very well. So yes the onus is on the back end of that defense. The Evan Mowgli and Jared Allen. That's why they got paid.

[00:13:25] But if you're looking for Evan Mowgli to take that next step to be that guy, to be as Tim Bonetime said in an episode of the Hoot Collective. He said that Donovan Mitchell can get the Cavaliers to the playoffs.

[00:13:42] He can get them to like the second round. But if you're wanting to take like a significant leap when you're thinking of yourself as a playoff contender, like a title contender.

[00:13:55] He believes wholeheartedly that Evan Mowgli needs to be the number one guy on that team. That hasn't worked out.

[00:14:01] Now I know we're talking a little bit more Evan Mowgli than we are Darren's Garland. But these are the developmental situations that we're trying to discuss.

[00:14:10] Now would have Evan Mowgli been the guy that he would have been or he should have been as the number one if Donovan Mitchell doesn't get there?

[00:14:24] Now all this is speculation. I'm not sitting here trying to say that Donovan Mitchell doesn't belong there. That is not what I'm saying. You're better with him than you are without him.

[00:14:35] More talent on the team is always better. I'm just talking about strictly for developmental reasons. It didn't necessarily completely hurt Darius Garland because he has found a way to flourish either way.

[00:14:51] But sometimes there are ripple effects in the developmental path that maybe there might be a better connection between Darius Garland and Evan Mowgli if maybe Donovan Mitchell was not in the equation.

[00:15:07] I don't know if necessarily you would be as successful as you are right now, but I wonder how the dynamic would have changed.

[00:15:16] Just these are thoughts that bump in my head.

[00:15:19] We're going to move along to number nine and the number nine person in our group here is Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies.

[00:15:29] Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the most dominate young defenders in our league. He averaged an astounding three blocks per game.

[00:15:41] He led the league and that his advanced metrics are off the charts with his defensive box plus minus at a positive five point.

[00:15:52] That's just proving how impactful he is on that end of the floor.

[00:15:55] Zach Harper, Chimes Ann, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a game changer defensively. He's not just a shot blocker but someone who can switch onto guards and hold his own.

[00:16:06] His versatility makes him the perfect defensive anchor for the Memphis Grizzlies.

[00:16:14] So Jackson's offense also has improved with him as well.

[00:16:18] His rebounding percentages, this is where he's up to his points and things of that nature. We're going to get to the three point thing in a second.

[00:16:27] But what I've enjoyed is that he's taken, he wants to be a more dominant presence inside and this is where he needs to maybe make his make some adjustments.

[00:16:42] So his rebounding percentage is 11.7. It is also below average for a big man and Memphis will need him to step that up in that department.

[00:16:54] So if he wants to really get into that upper echelon of the best big man in the league, that's where he's going to have to make it.

[00:17:08] Now see, people will start talking about the three point shot and how it's evolved and how better it is and all of that.

[00:17:17] It is. But I don't want the rebounding to go away.

[00:17:23] And I wonder, with Zach Eadie now, the rookie out of Purdue being in Memphis, does Jared Jackson Jr. just completely allow that to dissipate because he has a 7 foot 4 300 pound center?

[00:17:41] I don't know. We'll see.

[00:17:43] Now we're going to take a look at the attempt by attempts on Jared Jackson Jr. The next step for Jackson Jr. is improving his rebounding and his developing a more consistent post game.

[00:17:55] He has all the tools to become a top tier big man, but his offensive game needs refinement.

[00:18:01] There's no doubt that Jared Jackson Jr. has two way potential. That's undeniable.

[00:18:06] And Memphis coaching staff continues to focus on developing him into the perfect compliment to John Morant.

[00:18:13] Now, obviously that's been derailed over the last couple of years. It's been well documented. We don't have to talk about it.

[00:18:19] But when they were healthy together, that was like a, they were like number one or number two in the West.

[00:18:30] And that wasn't the down year for the West. That was the good year.

[00:18:37] What I would say to this is that I'm stealing this is going to be a rekindling of the dudes, basically. Bain is back healthy.

[00:18:46] Jared Jackson Jr. You're going to have John Morant, Marcus Smart, who he was brought over to replace the Dillon Brooks situation, but also provide some maturity for that team.

[00:19:02] I like to see that play out this year. We'll see.

[00:19:05] So there's a lot to be excited about Jared Jackson Jr. There's a lot to be excited about his potential.

[00:19:13] The other thing is with this is that he has when you draft somebody like this and when you draft him as high as Memphis did, you hope that they turn into this type of player.

[00:19:24] You hope that you're looking at, okay, this is the next step for you to reach like superstardom.

[00:19:30] We're talking about a guy who's really close to superstardom. And if you're hitting at such a good rate on guys like that, that they're getting to their potential or exceeding their potential.

[00:19:47] And if you think about it, John Morant, Jared Jackson Jr., Desmond Bay, they had a nice little run there where all three guys hit all three of them.

[00:20:01] Those are also let's give credit to the scouting department. Let's give credit to the front office because of the fact and Taylor Jenkins too.

[00:20:12] I don't want to leave him out as well. The head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies because he has put it on the court and make it work.

[00:20:19] But you can see that there is some synergy between the front office, the way they want to play basketball, the head coach and the style of play that the players play on the court.

[00:20:30] You can see there's a synergy. There's a flow of state through line there in Memphis and the only thing that has derailed them is just absolute buffoonery and injuries.

[00:20:45] So we hope to see a very healthy Memphis team this year. And I wonder and I just want to see how interesting the West becomes when Memphis introduces themselves onto the national stage again.

[00:21:04] So we'll be looking forward to this podcast. We'll be definitely looking forward to that in the upcoming days here leading up to Training Camp and also any stories that come out of Memphis.

[00:21:18] You know that front runner podcast collective will be all over them. Come on back. So if this is your first time here, come on back. We'll be here Wednesday. We'll be here Friday.

[00:21:30] So just start joining us. Just getting involved. It's good for us. It's good for you. It's good for America. It's good for the world. So let's do it.

[00:21:42] All right, we're going to move along to the next thing that we really need to talk about here over the weekend.

[00:21:48] Funny we had a podcast talking about Denver and talking about the strike between Michael Malone and Calvin Booth.

[00:21:57] And that there was a through line there. The strife was because of the fact that Calvin Booth had really stripped Michael Malone of all the veterans that were surrounding Nicola Yelgic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.

[00:22:12] and Aaron Gordon, which that is what Calvin Booth and the Denver Nugget franchise has considered as their core.

[00:22:21] A couple years ago Bruce Brown was part of that crew. Reggie Jackson was part of that crew. Then Contabious Caldwell Pope was there with that crew.

[00:22:31] And then slowly we start to see it erode. Bruce Brown is gone. Jackson is gone. And now Contabious Caldwell Pope has left the building as well.

[00:22:44] So it comes out is reported on ESPN Bleach Report, Hoot Hyped, all this that there's been a riff that Michael Malone doesn't like playing young players, which we knew.

[00:22:58] We told you all last year and Calvin Booth was basically said, Hey, you ain't got no choice now. You got to play him.

[00:23:05] So we'll see how it plays out through the season. But I think it's funny that story comes out that particular story.

[00:23:15] And then over the weekend, our guy Jamal Murray signs a massive four year 209 million dollar extension that keeps him and with the Nuggets through the 2029 season.

[00:23:29] But it raises some important questions on Denver's future and how they will manage the new CVA in a podcast in July of this year.

[00:23:39] Murray is a foundational piece next to Nicola Yelkich.

[00:23:42] But this extension puts Denver in a tight financial spot with the new CVA and navigating the second apron limits, their ability to add depth.

[00:23:55] They basically committed to their this core of Murray Yelkich, Aaron Gordon, also Michael Porter Jr. throw him in there.

[00:24:02] But it means they'll need some internal development to make up for the lack of cap space.

[00:24:08] Now Murray has been invaluable to Denver. You saw what it was when he wasn't there and you saw what it was when he was there a couple years where he had the knee injury and he was out.

[00:24:22] You saw how Denver struggled when he got back. They were instant title contender.

[00:24:26] So Murray misses 2021, 2021, 2022 season with the ACL tear struggles with cash strains during the 2024 playoffs which led Denver to a second round exit which nobody was prepared for.

[00:24:42] Not even this podcaster but here's what one scout said to me.

[00:24:48] His skill set is elite but the injuries are worrisome. Denver needs Murray to stay healthy for this extension to pay off.

[00:24:57] He's looked a step slower during the Olympics this summer and that's something the nuggets have to monitor.

[00:25:06] This is something we talked about and I give you breadcrumbs to lead you to these things because we're not trying to break stories here.

[00:25:14] What we're trying to do is push you in the right direction.

[00:25:18] We were talking about the struggles and we were talking about that he wasn't able to get past defenders.

[00:25:26] So you just heard it from a scout. The exclusivity was not there during the Olympics and now you're seeing a situation where the scout is seeing it, the franchise is seeing it and there has to be some level of concern.

[00:25:41] Now is this a product of Michael Malone being so rigid with not playing the young players where Jamal Murray's workload throughout the season caught up to him and now we're dealing with a lingering knee injury cash strain.

[00:26:02] This is a cash strain but anytime you've had a major knee injury or whatever it may be something on your lower extremities sometimes it takes you a while to get back to your original balance.

[00:26:18] One leg weighs more than another.

[00:26:22] There's just things that you basically accounted for on whatever side of the body. You're saying okay I'm going to give a little more emphasis to the other side.

[00:26:32] Also take a little strain off of this side or whatever.

[00:26:35] These are all things that you have to basically relearn, reteach yourself and get yourself back into optimal playing conditions to play in the NBA.

[00:26:45] And you wonder with the defiance on Michael Malone's part last year not to play Jaylen Pickett, Julian Strother and Chris Brown and also Payton Watson.

[00:26:59] You wonder if not basically just succeeding some of the games maybe that you were chasing for the developmental purposes of your young players so then also you're taking the stress off of Jamal Murray.

[00:27:18] Despite the injury concerns the Nuggets remain optimistic about their title window with sources inside the organization confident that Murray can return to his peak form.

[00:27:29] Denver's offensive rating skyrockets when Murray and Yelgich are on the floor together and their two man game is one of the most lethal in the NBA.

[00:27:40] This is my guy Wisney, Len Brae of the ringer and also of Groot Chat on the ringer. It's a good pot go check it out.

[00:27:50] As long as Murray is healthy Denver has a chance to compete for championship but if he is even a little off their ceiling takes a hit.

[00:27:59] Yelgich can't do it alone by himself and they need Murray to be the second star.

[00:28:04] I love Wisney, I love big wise. He just breaks it down to you. It's just crazy and he's just truthful about the situation.

[00:28:16] Here's the challenge moving forward for Denver. The managing of the rosters around their stars. They've lost key road players we talked about it KCP and they'll have to rely on Brown, Julian Strother to fill those gaps.

[00:28:30] Tim Blomstamps said this about Denver with the financial constraints Denver is facing they'll need Brown and Strother to step up in big ways.

[00:28:39] This is what happens when you max out two stars and you have to find cheap production elsewhere.

[00:28:49] True words have been miss welcome and also keep in mind the Cronkies don't like going over the cap. They don't like it.

[00:28:59] Figure out another way. Just saying.

[00:29:02] The one thing that we want to talk about with this Denver situation as you start to look into camp.

[00:29:10] Listen to Michael Malone's comments. Listen to how he is speaking about the young kids. See how biting the comments are.

[00:29:21] See if that maybe if he's a little more gentler because his reaction to the young guys is the most paramount situation of this.

[00:29:34] Now when you have do not have a choice.

[00:29:40] Maybe your tune just changes right maybe it's oh you work in an office long enough right. I don't know. I don't know what your situation is.

[00:29:49] I know a lot of people now they telecommute what have you but there was a point in time where a lot of people worked in offices.

[00:29:57] Maybe you work in a department store. Maybe you work at a bath spot. Maybe you work at a high end clothing boutique. I don't know.

[00:30:07] But what happens is that you're in the office with people long enough start seeing people and your situation changes with them.

[00:30:16] That's all it just changes.

[00:30:18] And maybe now that Michael Malone has gotten or Calvin Booth let's say Calvin Booth has gotten Bruce Brown and he's gotten Kitebius Caldwell Pope out of the mix.

[00:30:32] Hey Michael Malone is willing to have that conversation by the water cooler in the break room when he's stirring his sugar into his coffee.

[00:30:41] Maybe he is willing to banter back and forth with his young guys. What have you I don't know.

[00:30:48] But now I think we're going to see what the kids are all about.

[00:30:52] And Calvin Booth has a lot of pressure on him because these kids he picked and he said these kids are critical to the future depth of the Denver Nuggets.

[00:31:02] He went out on a limb getting rid of people to make this happen.

[00:31:08] So we hope that this all works out for Denver.

[00:31:13] Now we're going to get to the part of the podcast that we not done so far but we never said that we weren't going to do it for our betters out there for our guys who are just trying to get a feel of what people are thinking about around the league about your team.

[00:31:31] If you are a southeastern division fan or just a fan of the Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, the Washington Wizard.

[00:31:46] This is the podcast for you because we're going to be breaking it down so buckle up.

[00:31:51] We are going over under futures with the southeastern division.

[00:31:57] So I'm excited. This is a little primer.

[00:31:59] We've been giving you pre draft or pre camp previews and now that we're getting closer and closer to actual camps opening up what we're going to do with who we're going to break down divisions.

[00:32:13] We're going to tell you the over unders.

[00:32:16] I'm not making picks today.

[00:32:17] What we are going to do is talk about what people are talking about and then we'll go from there.

[00:32:24] Good. Everybody with me? Great.

[00:32:28] We're going to start off with the Orlando Magic.

[00:32:32] Okay. They posted a 47-35 record last year.

[00:32:37] Their over under is set for 47.5 wins this year with new additions, Contabius, Caldwell, Pult.

[00:32:44] They bolstered their wing defense but the loss of Mark Hale-Folts could hurt their playmaking.

[00:32:50] The one thing with Mark Hale-Folts never regained his shooting touch.

[00:32:56] It just never seemed to happen and they had to move on.

[00:33:00] They had to get better somehow.

[00:33:03] And Steve Cerruti is a producer on the, I think, Ryan Rosillo show.

[00:33:09] Orlando is on the rise.

[00:33:10] Paolo Bencaro and Franz Wagner lead in a way.

[00:33:13] I think they'll hit the over.

[00:33:15] It's Caldwell, Pult brings the defense consistency they need but Foltz absent will be felt especially in tight games.

[00:33:25] We didn't get Kevin Clark but we did get a Stephen Cerruti statement.

[00:33:30] That's good. I like that.

[00:33:32] Advanced stat.

[00:33:34] Orlando has ranked seventh in defensive rating last season and with KCP in the mix, they should improve.

[00:33:41] However, watch for how they replace Foltz playmaking.

[00:33:47] His assist to turnover ratio was one of the best on the team.

[00:33:52] Now, the way the team played a lot last year was Paolo was playing a lot of point guard.

[00:33:59] They have Jaylen Suggs can handle the ball.

[00:34:02] They also have a Cole Anthony coming off the bench and also they have our guy Anthony Black who they drafted not this season in 2023.

[00:34:15] So they have ball handlers.

[00:34:17] It's going to be imperative that one of those ball handlers makes a leap this year.

[00:34:22] So for Anthony Black to be on the court, he's going to have to shoot it better from distance.

[00:34:27] Jaylen Suggs just needs to basically do the basic things.

[00:34:34] Do the basic, don't turn the ball over, pass the ball.

[00:34:37] He doesn't have to be a point guard extraordinaire.

[00:34:40] He just needs to kind of just move the offense along and allow all the dynat...

[00:34:46] dynaticism around him, hoping that Franz can return to form because he didn't look good in the Olympics either.

[00:34:58] And he also didn't look good in the playoffs.

[00:35:00] So that's a major concern too.

[00:35:02] Is this the new norm for Franz or was something going on and he's going to give back to shooting the three ball at least at a halfway fairly decent rate?

[00:35:18] And we thought we were going to improve on that, but right now we would just pray for 34%, 35% at this point.

[00:35:30] I will say this about Orlando.

[00:35:35] I still think that we're still in the phase of figuring out who is who, what is what.

[00:35:45] I think next year is the year even though they had success this last past season.

[00:35:52] This is another fill out year.

[00:35:54] I don't think we need to jump the gun on like, oh, we need to do this and we need to trade for that.

[00:35:59] We need to get this. Listen, they got contiguous call with a pole for free and they cost them money.

[00:36:05] They didn't cost them any draft picks or anything like that.

[00:36:08] You don't know what Anthony Black is yet.

[00:36:11] Franz is still developing.

[00:36:14] You saw Paulo Boncarro take a leap in the playoffs.

[00:36:19] You saw what he is and what he could be going down the line.

[00:36:24] Jaylen Suggs took a leap in the regular season.

[00:36:28] He had a poor postseason, but that's to be expected for somebody who did take a leap in a regular season.

[00:36:34] Now the defenses are tighter and paying more attention to you.

[00:36:38] So that's his next step.

[00:36:40] But you did see development.

[00:36:42] So now if you can see that same type of developmental situation with Anthony Black, Jet Howard and what they drafted this year.

[00:36:54] You're still trying to figure out all the pieces.

[00:36:59] It's not like OKC.

[00:37:03] OKC has their three.

[00:37:06] They have Shay Gillespie Alexander.

[00:37:09] They know he's their prohibited number one.

[00:37:12] They have Jaylen Williams and they have Chet Hungry.

[00:37:16] Those are their three guys.

[00:37:18] Now you can say, oh we have Paulo, Jaylen Suggs and Franz.

[00:37:28] We're still iffy about two of those guys.

[00:37:30] So I still think this is another year of sifting through the talent, seeing what we have, seeing what's coming to the surface,

[00:37:39] seeing if we can get Franz back on track.

[00:37:42] If this is going to be something that do we need to pull the rip cord on at the end of this season and do a Josh Gitty deal?

[00:37:51] Because these are all things with the one thing that you do know, the one foundational piece that you do know that you have is Paulo Ben-Kerrill.

[00:38:01] So I think with the division set up and we're about to talk about Miami in a second.

[00:38:07] I think 47 and a half is a doable number for Orlando.

[00:38:13] I know there will be people who will be over here talking about, oh they're going to clearly easily win 55 games.

[00:38:19] Hold on, they got to play the East.

[00:38:21] They got to play the East.

[00:38:23] We'll see how banged up people get.

[00:38:27] They had great injury luck along the way in last year.

[00:38:33] So those type of things make a difference as well.

[00:38:35] Are you going to have the same injury luck that you had the previous season?

[00:38:40] Now with this team being as young as it is, yes, you should expect that health would be fruitful for the Orlando Magic.

[00:38:49] But we can't just pencil that in like that's a guarantee.

[00:38:53] So these are all things to think about when you're looking at this over under but I would think personally 47 and a half.

[00:39:00] That should be a doable number for the Orlando Magic.

[00:39:03] So let's move on to the Miami Heat.

[00:39:07] The Miami Heat finished at 46 and 36 last season.

[00:39:12] They're over under a set at 44 and a half wins with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo still at the core.

[00:39:21] The Heat have always exceeded expectations but their key loss was Caleb Martin and that is a huge blow.

[00:39:31] But we'll talk about maybe some replacements forthcoming.

[00:39:36] This is what John Hollinger had to say about Miami.

[00:39:41] Miami always finds a way but this year feels different.

[00:39:47] They lost some key depth and while Butler and Bam are elite, they'll need guys like Tyler Hero who to really step up.

[00:39:56] 44 and a half wins feels right on the money.

[00:39:59] So he's talking about they're over under.

[00:40:02] I don't know which Jimmy we're going to get and do we have enough depth to really hide the other things on our team.

[00:40:16] 44 and a half is a low number.

[00:40:18] Alright, here's the advanced stat for Miami.

[00:40:21] Miami's defense remains strong but their offense block plus or minus

[00:40:27] will depend heavily on Hero's production.

[00:40:32] His usage rating could spike this year making him a crucial piece for the over.

[00:40:39] Now here's the other thing, we're completely disregarding Terry Rogier.

[00:40:45] Now Terry Rogier we can talk about how awful he was last year.

[00:40:50] I cannot think that Terry Rogier is absolutely done.

[00:40:57] I'm just going to call it like I see it.

[00:40:59] He came in mid season, he was trying to learn the Miami Heat way.

[00:41:04] He was in Charlotte.

[00:41:06] Charlotte is not the most, wasn't the bastion of clutch or professionalism last year sort of speak.

[00:41:16] No shade to them this year because I think it's a completely different organization but I digress.

[00:41:23] Terry Rogier comes over, he gets thrown into this crazy situation with Uber, competitive, Uber,

[00:41:32] alpha male dudes like Jimmy Butler and Pam Attawile and it's a culture shock.

[00:41:39] It's a culture shock, yes he wanted to be out, yes he wanted the juice of the playoffs but when you get what you want sometimes it takes some time for acclimation.

[00:41:48] So if you're telling me that Terry Rogier is going to have some bounce back which I would almost absolutely guarantee.

[00:41:59] That will help Tyler Heero so then he takes less stupid shots, you're getting better quality shots all along the line and then you still have Jaime Hockas,

[00:42:11] you still have Nicola Jovic as well and then they had the 7 footer KL Ware out of Indiana.

[00:42:21] Their depth is going to be tested because you're putting unproving players in it.

[00:42:29] So yes there's going to be some situations where they might not make the right play,

[00:42:34] there might be some situations where it might take them a second to get caught up the speed but at the end of the day Jaime Hockas Jr,

[00:42:44] Nicola Jovic and KL Ware could be completely added and add something to this team that they haven't had for a while which is athleticism,

[00:42:59] offensive juice like from a myriad of players, this is something that Miami built along the way a while ago.

[00:43:10] So I look for them and I can't ever guard against Squo.

[00:43:17] You know what I'm saying? Yes this is going to be a challenge but 44 and a half and it's Squo.

[00:43:24] Eric Squelcher is going to get this team over 45 wins so I don't know and now if you tell me there's an injury then we might have an issue.

[00:43:36] Also Butler is in the contract here so he's going to play like a maniac.

[00:43:43] Let's move on to the Atlanta Hawks.

[00:43:45] The Atlanta Hawks had a disappointing season, 36 and 46 last season and now they're over under.

[00:43:55] This season is 35 and a half.

[00:43:59] Now with the loss of Dejante Murray they've taken a hit but Trey Young remains the focal point.

[00:44:05] Let's see what Zach Harper had to say.

[00:44:08] The Hawks are a mystery this season.

[00:44:11] Losing Murray and Sadee Bey-Herds but Trey Young is still an elite offensive engine and if they can figure out their defensive issues over the over is possible but 35 and a half feels like the right number.

[00:44:30] Alright Zach, I feel you on that.

[00:44:35] Alright, here's the thing.

[00:44:38] Let's look at the Hawks and let's look at the Hawks honestly.

[00:44:43] I have a couple friends out there that I used to talk to quite extensively so when they hear this they're probably really not like me but that's okay.

[00:44:54] Alright so you have Trey Young alright we're trying to reinvent Trey.

[00:44:59] The other thing that's going on is that they did move out Dejante Murray.

[00:45:04] Does this lean into Kobe Buffkin who was drafted in 2023 to get some minutes that he did not receive at all last year?

[00:45:16] So that might be part of it.

[00:45:18] Also they kind of slow quietly quit on AJ Griffin and moved him along to Houston.

[00:45:26] So their makeup is going to be vastly different but also have some key pillars in it that are synonymous with Atlanta basketball especially the Glory Days if you're talking about when they made the Eastern Conference finals.

[00:45:44] You have Trey Young, oh you have him.

[00:45:47] You have your guy Jalen Johnson and we'll talk about him in a second.

[00:45:53] You have Bogdans by Donovitch and you know how much I love him.

[00:45:58] He's the white whale that I can never get on the Lakers even though I know he's a perfect fit.

[00:46:05] You might have the emergence of Kobe Buffkin but we'll see right, we'll see.

[00:46:11] Remember what came back in the Dejante Murray trade.

[00:46:16] Dyson Daniels we still don't know if he can shoot.

[00:46:19] So he is the apparent of Deandre Hunter who we don't know if he'll play enough games.

[00:46:29] So Dyson Daniels is we don't know if he can shoot it.

[00:46:34] Deandre Hunter is we don't know if he'll play enough games.

[00:46:37] So you have that piece.

[00:46:41] Then you get to the Young Fords and this is where it gets really exciting or the young wing savvy to put it.

[00:46:48] Jalen Johnson came on to the scene.

[00:46:51] Remember Quinn Snyder took over the team not last year but half a year prior so he comes in and he's like enamored with Jalen Johnson and nobody could understand why but he was.

[00:47:08] So last year we get to see why.

[00:47:09] Jalen Johnson just burst onto the scene.

[00:47:13] You start to see just the offensive creativity.

[00:47:16] You start to see just his ability to play make for himself and others.

[00:47:22] You see some of the dynamicism with the the dunks and just the playmaking and being able to create just get buckets on his own is great.

[00:47:33] So you're seeing a shift in philosophy with the Atlanta Hawks.

[00:47:42] Now they draft first overall Zachary Rissichet from France.

[00:47:49] Okay so France has Zachary Rissichet he's 6 9 6 10.

[00:47:54] He needs to put on some weight but tough SOP go watch the games and friends now he playing against dudes that are like 26 years old.

[00:48:03] 27 years old.

[00:48:04] Okay he's playing in a high level league in Euro basketball and he's holding his own and also keep in mind with Zachary Rissichet he was playing on a team that was super competitive.

[00:48:20] They asked him to be only a 3 and D wing.

[00:48:25] He shot the ball fairly well and you defend it very well.

[00:48:31] Now yes you're saying oh well this is the Euro league it's not the NBA he's not gonna just do that.

[00:48:37] Keep in mind that's what they asked him to do.

[00:48:42] I've been told we saw it a little bit in the summer league but I was told before summer league happened hey Vince he has way more to his game.

[00:48:52] He can offense initiate.

[00:48:54] He can be a really solid second side initiator.

[00:48:58] He'll be able to attack a closeout.

[00:49:01] He'll be able to if the lane is cut off he'll be able to find the open man.

[00:49:07] I was told these things.

[00:49:08] I was told that he has a little floater.

[00:49:10] I was told that he has a little nasty to him and a lot of these things have played out.

[00:49:15] So I'm just saying when we come to these types of situations with them it's just major when it comes to the game.

[00:49:24] To that situation you're looking at a team that's about to make an overhaul.

[00:49:29] Keep in mind they've been trying to offload Clint Cappella for the longest time.

[00:49:33] So Clint Cappella is on the list to be traded.

[00:49:36] They just got rid of Dejante Murray and we're looking at like 35 and a half wins.

[00:49:43] I don't know yeah maybe I don't know what we're talking about.

[00:49:46] Maybe I think personally this is one of those situations where you go if you're an Atlanta fan you're just looking at development this year.

[00:50:00] You might be in the who's the team like Portland Portland a little bit different.

[00:50:10] They trying to suck suck you're just looking at your guys getting better.

[00:50:14] Jaylen Johnson improve and what can you expect decently out of reshashades this year.

[00:50:20] Is this the emergence of Kobe Bucking.

[00:50:23] What role does Bogdan by Donovan's play in this whole situation.

[00:50:28] Do you end up trading Cappella.

[00:50:30] Does this open up significant minutes from a Nyeca a Congo.

[00:50:35] There's so many things to answer.

[00:50:37] So I think with all of those things surrounding the Atlanta Hawks personally I would be very bullish on the undone.

[00:50:52] I would be very bullish on the under for them.

[00:50:59] All right let's move on to Charlotte now Charlotte with a record last year 21 and 61 they're over under for this season is 29 and a half Vegas must know something.

[00:51:13] All right so they lost Davies Barton JT Thor Alex a poker poker chef ski and Bryce McGowan's will Christ McGowan's might be the biggest loss out of that group.

[00:51:26] Their additions Josh Green from Dallas to John Salon and Taj Gibson.

[00:51:32] Taj Gibson is your coach on the floor.

[00:51:35] He is your guy who brings some veteran leadership.

[00:51:39] This might have been a Charles Lee ask sort of squeak.

[00:51:45] All right so let's get into it with Charlie now I think I said on this podcast I know I've said offline to people.

[00:51:53] Charlotte is one of those teams that really intrigued me this year.

[00:51:57] So you have Lamello ball who obviously has had a bunch of ankle injuries and what have you with the last time we saw that guy healthy he was making an all star team and this team was cushion for a playoff squad.

[00:52:10] Then you have Brandon Miller so Brandon Miller was the second overall pick in the 2023 overall draft.

[00:52:17] He came on like gangbusters he plays so well last year he provided great offensive punch.

[00:52:26] He scored all three levels of the basketball court he was able to shoot the ball extremely well from three.

[00:52:33] He does have a nice little pull up game.

[00:52:36] He is he is his favorite player he reminds me a lot of Paul George so he is really intriguing.

[00:52:46] And then you talk about Miles Bridges now a lot of people don't want to talk about Miles Bridges because of the off the court incidents.

[00:52:58] Now on the court he was like fortune and a half and like almost eight rounds a game that was just getting a rust off remember he didn't play like for almost a year and a half or something like that.

[00:53:11] You look at the talent that's around and now Charles Lee is you know firmly entrenched as the coach.

[00:53:17] Yes first year all get but the last couple years been a holding pattern for the Charlotte Hornets and I know they eight game or nine game leap is huge.

[00:53:32] But it's not as huge as you would think right.

[00:53:36] I mean with the talent of the Mellowball Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges on his own.

[00:53:43] And then we're not even talking about their first round selection of Tijana Salon who he's a bastard.

[00:53:50] And I mean that in the most positive way possible he is a defensive just annoyance would be the proper word.

[00:54:01] I think he's going to be able to shoot it.

[00:54:04] I'm really intrigued and then you got Josh Green on a flyer you innocent you also pair him back up with Grant Williams as well.

[00:54:14] And here's another young wing who can provide energy and defense where you weren't getting that from the Mellow but these guys have that type of mentality so you're putting everything around the Mellow that is defensive minded.

[00:54:31] And around Brandon Miller as well.

[00:54:36] But all all around them is defense rebound and toughness things that nature.

[00:54:42] I think they might have a shot at kind of supplanting Atlanta because I think that where Atlanta doesn't have a vision.

[00:54:55] I think Charlotte has been planning this vision for a couple years now and we might see just a like a switch.

[00:55:05] So Charlotte's that team that's pushing for the plan and Atlanta taking the step back.

[00:55:13] We'll see.

[00:55:15] Now Atlanta has every reason not to do that.

[00:55:19] And now Charlotte also might pull players towards the end of the year.

[00:55:24] So keep in mind if for some reason the front office decides that this 2025 draft is way too good at like let's say from top seven right we must be in the top seven.

[00:55:39] But you might see them start to pull some shenanigans towards maybe right before the All Star break whatever.

[00:55:48] So if they're really honed in on somebody and they're saying hey we got to at least give ourselves a shot at it then but I still believe that 29 and a half wins.

[00:55:59] I think they might be able to touch that.

[00:56:03] Now we'll move on to the Washington Wizards and honestly here's the thing with the Wizards and I'll say it and I'll say it and I'll continue to say it.

[00:56:14] Just watch the young kids that's all we're doing here.

[00:56:18] Jordan Pools contract is Jordan Pools contract.

[00:56:21] If you can rehab him and then be able to flip him for anything congratulations Washington Wizards you've done God's work.

[00:56:32] Other than that at this point you're still taking in bad contracts you're getting first rounders you're you know any deal that you can get in on because you can like take in salary or whatever the case may be.

[00:56:47] They got rid of Denny Obdia let's talk about that real quick.

[00:56:50] They got rid of Denny Obdia Tyus Jones Landy Shamit.

[00:56:55] So all of what I would consider their foundational like kind of like stable stabilizing pieces they got rid of so they bring in Jonas Valenchunis Malcolm Brogdon Carlton Carrington by Carrington we love both.

[00:57:17] Keshon George and Sadeep Bae now Sadeep Bae won't play this year he has a knee injury so if we see him we might see him towards the end of the year and I am guaranteeing you we will probably not see him.

[00:57:30] Because Washington is trying to be bad they are trying to be bad and they're going to succeed at being bad.

[00:57:41] Okay Alex R was the number two overall pick there were thoughts that he could be number one overall didn't end up doing that.

[00:57:51] Summer League was kind of like right but usually seven foot one dudes don't do well in Summer League because they don't handle the ball all the time.

[00:58:03] Right now you're looking to see if Carrington can play you're looking to see if Sare can play Bilal Kulubale to see what kind of developments he has made as far as that's concerned.

[00:58:19] You're just basically trying to see if any of this group is going to be able to play with like the guy that's coming the guy who might be coming in next year because remember a lot of people were talking about how the 2024 draft wasn't that great but the 2025 draft is.

[00:58:41] And so far it's proven out to be so because we did a whole thing on the 2025 draft earlier in the summer and I think we did 30 guys or something like that and other 30 guys.

[00:58:59] We did them and then what else happened with that is that we saw a lot of translatable skills to the NBA where we were pulling teeth with this with the 2024 draft.

[00:59:15] So if you're looking at the Washington Wizards being better this is not the year for you for that 20 and a half wins they're going to try to go way under that.

[00:59:31] We'll see but yeah I think they're going to try to go way under that and I think they'll have a good shot at doing it.

[00:59:38] I think they will because they're going to allow the young kids to play and that's what you should do.

[00:59:42] There's going to be a lot of growing pains and Jordan pools going to put up a bunch of shots so hey man I mean good luck to Washington good luck to the district and we will see how it all works out.

[00:59:57] Alright so we've given you a really robust show today.

[01:00:02] I want to thank my producers for helping me get gather all this information.

[01:00:06] Thank you to Sareha and thank you to Bunch of Funch for helping me out today.

[01:00:12] And then also we want to tell you that we're going to come back on Wednesday and do this all over again.

[01:00:18] So we will have an over under division.

[01:00:22] We'll do that.

[01:00:24] We will have a at least one maybe two player profiles for the top 25 25 and under and then whatever news and notes come out will be on top with that.

[01:00:39] So with that being said we can go ahead and pretty much sign off but before we do that as always we want to tell you that.

[01:00:48] One we thank you for listening to our podcast.

[01:00:52] Thank you so much for helping us break records over the last four months but the job is not done.

[01:00:59] We got to continue to put the pedal to the metal.

[01:01:02] We got to continue to press the flesh that whole deal and make this a certified podcast one of the podcast is a go to NBA podcast so keep that in mind what the goal is.

[01:01:19] Remember to always be a friend and tell a friend right.

[01:01:24] And then with that being said the best part of you is you make sure that the people that surround you are just illuminate illuminating your light and the people that maybe are you know putting a little shade on your light might want to have a conversation with them do good and we'll see you back on this feed on Wednesday.

[01:01:44] Do's.